South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 4th July and Onwards...

[khodds]

Yep, far too early to get excited about the 's' word just yet... A few frosts would be lovely tho after this horrible mild wet dank dark spell

[ARTDEMOLE]

Would be content with some colder weather with some decent clear nights for the telescope. 12.5c here. looking forward to northerly winds on Friday.

[Nights King]

Yep, far too early to get excited about the 's' word just yet... A few frosts would be lovely tho after this horrible mild wet dank dark spell

 

Lets start late autumn winter off with a bang I say after the last 2 dreadful winters! Some of you have not seen snow in 2 years! 

[knocker]

Cloudy with Sc and Cu. Quite mild with temp 11C and wind from the WSW 10mph

[Dorsetbred]

A mild one again this morning, with light rain.

Currently:

12.8°C

RH 93 %

1006.2 mb Steady

Rainfall 3mm

[ThundersnowDays]

16th November 2015

07:25 GMT

Temp: 8.C

Wind: Light Air

Sky: Patches of clear sky dominated by sunrise pink cloud.

Raining: No

[Rich_Clements]

Had a sharp short shower on the commute this morning which I wasnt expecting, cleared now though with a gap in the clouds to my east. Looking like a damp start to the week

[MP-R]

The rare occurrence of sunshine is currently blessing north Bristol with its presence. Expecting a wet drive home tonight.

[Mark Neal.]

Lovely sunshine here now. Temp at 12.3c

[Andy Bown]

There was a stunning sunrise this morning, that's 2 Mondays in a row.

 

A few blustery showers and some pleasant sunshine until it has gone generally overcast in the last hour while also cooling down to 11.6c at present (I managed to prise my sensor battery cover off!).

 

While many seem to be turning their attention to the potential cold snap, which I would not be surprised to see provide wintry showers down the Western portions of our region while further East/inland remains bright/dry, there looks like a real gale coming our way tomorrow evening/night.

[Lyn-M]

Pleasant at half ten this morning (see photo), now overcast and feelling damp as some light drizzle comes from the SW.

 

[andy_leics22]

Evening all...

Just poking my head back in to say hello for the winter season... How are we all?

 

Hello Good to see some regulars back for the Winter months!

Love it when the GFS snow forecasts come out in data form on XC Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 20.31.47.png

 

Ooohya beauty, i'll have me some of that!  It will downgrade to either rain or dry by then but it's nice to see anyway.

[festivalking]

No mention of any wintery ppn even on the moors from david braine tonight when discussing the weekend. I wonder if he is waiting for more info before "worrying" the local population......

[andy_leics22]

No mention of any wintery ppn even on the moors from david braine tonight when discussing the weekend. I wonder if he is waiting for more info before "worrying" the local population......

 

Probably being cautious at the moment. The possible cold snap is still around 120 hours away and I have seen a lot change on the models within that timeframe! If it still shows what it is now at 48-72 hours away, they will start mentioning the white stuff

[Nights King]

It just looks cold and frosty for us away from windward coastal hills of Devon and Cornwall

 

I expect normal late autumn frosts at the moment unless we get a change. 

[fergieweather]

No mention of any wintery ppn even on the moors from david braine tonight when discussing the weekend. I wonder if he is waiting for more info before "worrying" the local population......

 Yes, in so far as no detail on any features running south in the flow is reliable at this range (despite hype otherwise in some posts elsewhere on the forum). Equally, any trough(s) running down in the flow are expected to contain slightly warmer air, with WBFL up around 400m. Thus, we expect an awkward mix of rain, sleet and some snow (the latter mostly uplands). As it stands, no output offers any genuinely disruptive amounts of snow anywhere. This, of course, may change. So, for now we think describing the weekend as "colder, with some snow" is adequate as a broad message. Any other detail pointless for now. In any event, tomorrow's goings-on are more immediately of concern, albeit 12z UKMO-GM, E4 and EC all agree on a more northerly path to the swathe of strongest winds, where gusts could touch 70-80mph in places. Certainly 50-60 looks widespread across much of inland W Country, but the warning will be revisited tomorrow AM, amended as needed and possible escalated for some (not necessarily this region).

Edited November 16, 2015 by fergieweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Further to fergie's post above, having seen what I've watched on tv forecasts I'll reiterate the following about BARNEY, tomorrow's named storm as quoted on the status updates.

 

"Its still looking grim for some or entertaining depending on your viewpoint with 70-80mph gusts forecast at exposure and potential for 60-70mph gusts over much of mainland England. BATTEN DOWN FOR BARNEY! Tuesday afternoon through to late Evening is the key timeframe according to media forecasts I've seen."

[gottolovethisweather]

It just looks cold and frosty for us away from windward coastal hills of Devon and Cornwall

 

I expect normal late autumn frosts at the moment unless we get a change. 

 

Hello cheery one, good to see you back in this part of the forum, Mulls. I'm hoping for the best regarding the weekend and into next week but pointless dwelling over any details with regards to snow. The colder air is finally arriving which is good news as far as I'm concerned, it will be more seasonal given that maximums of 17c are likely in some parts of our region tomorrow. 

Edited November 16, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[khodds]

Hello Good to see some regulars back for the Winter months!

 

Ooohya beauty, i'll have me some of that!  It will downgrade to either rain or dry by then but it's nice to see anyway.

Nice to be back too, time to settle down for the roller coaster ride that is our weather

Yes, in so far as no detail on any features running south in the flow is reliable at this range (despite hype otherwise in some posts elsewhere on the forum). Equally, any trough(s) running down in the flow are expected to contain slightly warmer air, with WBFL up around 400m. Thus, we expect an awkward mix of rain, sleet and some snow (the latter mostly uplands). As it stands, no output offers any genuinely disruptive amounts of snow anywhere. This, of course, may change. So, for now we think describing the weekend as "colder, with some snow" is adequate as a broad message. Any other detail pointless for now. In any event, tomorrow's goings-on are more immediately of concern, albeit 12z UKMO-GM, E4 and EC all agree on a more northerly path to the swathe of strongest winds, where gusts could touch 70-80mph in places. Certainly 50-60 looks widespread across much of inland W Country, but the warning will be revisited tomorrow AM, amended as needed and possible escalated for some (not necessarily this region).

Great to see you here too Ian, hope all is good with you

[ThundersnowDays]

17th November 2015

7:45 GMT

Temp: 9.C

Wind: Light Breeze

Sky: Overcast

Raining: No

 

 Will update this evening as Barney hits.

[Dorsetbred]

Morning all, well the sky has said it all this morning "Red sky in the morning.........." A particularly red one this morning over the Bay.

Right now

13°C

RH 82%

1006 mb Steady

Wind over the harbour FORCE 5 gusting FORCE 6

[knocker]

Cloudy with St and mist. Temp 12C and wind WSW 17mph. Expecting gusts 50-60 mph later today.

Edited November 17, 2015 by knocker

[Rich_Clements]

The winds have not arrived yet, some drizzle about and grey and overcast this morning

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi all,

 

I've posted my thoughts as I currently see things developing for the rest of November on the attached link.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84434-model-output-discussion-cold-snap-incoming-16th-nov-onwards/?p=3285204

[MP-R]

Squally heavy rain just moved through and now the wind is really howling. I can actually hear the office roof creaking!