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South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 4th July and Onwards...

Methuselah

By Methuselah
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khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

A brief period of back-edge snow is possible come Friday evening but with so many factors at play, unable to consider this scenario until within 24 hours I'd suggest, so later Thursday before we get much idea on that. Showery bursts and disturbances in the flow are the better bet right now and location, location, location will be the key detail again  to concentrate on, I imagine. With an individual's knowledge of one's own patch either promoting or downgrading these chances given the wind direction, ranging NW through to NE during the crucial period, it will differ greatly based upon that. The warm ground would never stand a chance against the polar air in stopping a build of snow if (a big IF) should the conditions be ripe for it. 

 

I hope that answers your questions Mulls and as for you and anyone else in here, I bid you nighty night.

 

A wise woman you are.  :D

I like to think so ;)

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

Daaamn, that was a pretty potent system for Oxfordshire! Luckily I survived the cycle ride home from work at 8pm but the train journey from Didcot to Oxford wasn't plain sailing! Fallen tree on the line held us up for half an hour :laugh: 

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

Partly cloudy with temp of 12C and wind SW 18mph.

 

The gfs this morning still going for a cold weekend with the little perturbation travelling east through France. The precipitation, if any, has still to be resolved.

 

post-12275-0-11112900-1447827192_thumb.p

post-12275-0-06656200-1447827200_thumb.p

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Dorsetbred Maestro

Dorsetbred

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted

After a quite a quiet night, clealry Barney knew who not to disturb, a clear start to the morning, and still very warm, currently:

11.8°C

RH 87 %

1010.5 mb Steady

Rainfall 4.6mm

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Rich_Clements Rising Star

Rich_Clements

Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
Posted

Well Barney was interesting, he finished off one of my fence panels. but by 8pm last night it seemed to have blown itself out.

 

Nice blue skies this morning 11c

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Yes, definitely getting excited for the potential for snow even down here on the south coast! :D

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ARTDEMOLE Seasoned

ARTDEMOLE

Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
Posted

Broken cloud. Breezy S.West 28kmh. Temperature 12.1c.  Nice in the sunshine...

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Only two days now until the cold snap starts so the 12z should be a little more interesting to see whats going on with that channel low and whether we have a chance here in west country.  :)

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

Here and now, after a brief lull through early this morning, the wind is kicking up again and rain has just started. Could be a squally few hours to come now.

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Only two days now until the cold snap starts so the 12z should be a little more interesting to see whats going on with that channel low and whether we have a chance here in west country.  :)

Sorry, but I'm confused, which channel low do you mean? Do you mean the one that goes to our south on Thursday or the showers streaming down from the north during the weekend?

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted (edited)

GFS 18z looks like sticking with shortwave/channel low

 

gfsnh-0-60.png?18

 

Edit

just clipping the far South this time. Could be interesting if it developed a little more and was a little further North

 

gfs-2-78.png?18

 

 

Sorry, but I'm confused, which channel low do you mean? Do you mean the one that goes to our south on Thursday or the showers streaming down from the north during the weekend?

 

Just pinched it from the model thread to show you but it has been on a few runs last couple of days.

 

Interestingly Sunday early hours net weather forecast has me down for heavy snow. Just maybe 

Edited by Nights King
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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Just pinched it from the model thread to show you but it has been on a few runs last couple of days.

 

Interestingly Sunday early hours net weather forecast has me down for heavy snow. Just maybe 

Now, that's what I like to see, if only the ground was dry/solid and it was 0°C then we'd have a good few inches on the ground. Still, even seeing some snow would be good enough for me.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

There is no channel low. The latest gfs does show a small disturbance Cornwall/Devon 00 Sunday which probably not be there on the next run. I suspect the detail for the weekend best left a Friday.

 

Back to today and a clearance here 1400. Now some sunshine and some nice Ci. Wind has dropped but still breezy.

 

post-12275-0-72643900-1447858987_thumb.p

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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

Highly impressive squall line an hour ago, that's two afternoons in a row! That came after a sunny pleasant morning and the sky is clearing quickly again now. So a very changeable day with one constant being a very strong gusting wind.

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

Had a squall line come through here at 3pm. Torrential rain for a few minutes blown through on strong winds. Clear periods right now. 

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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted

Weekend cold snap is getting shorter IMBY. Earlier on two days of sub 5c conditions with sleet and wintery showers on saturday and sunday, now sunday we're up to 7 and anything wintery has gone up the swanny. Still going to be a massive difference in what we have been used to and the log burner will be pumping out all day! Moving forward to coin one of knockers favourite phrase...."westerly zonal flow" - all a bit meh!

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khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

Could have seen it coming really, at least it's only November, long way to go yet

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

18z not without interest for us folk. A disturbance runs into NW England into Wales Saturday evening and moves into SW England and Central Southern England.. 

post-15543-0-25245900-1447885576_thumb.g post-15543-0-60247000-1447885582_thumb.g post-15543-0-30322500-1447885591_thumb.g

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

18z not without interest for us folk. A disturbance runs into NW England into Wales Saturday evening and moves into SW England and Central Southern England.. 

attachicon.gifsat 18z.gif attachicon.gifsun 00z.gif attachicon.gifsun 6z.gif

 

Yeah, that definitely looks interesting!

 

The classic thing that always seems to happen in a cold snap like this is, usually the models won't show much in the way of PPN 3-4 days in advance but as we get within 1-2 days away, troughs and showers seem to show up more widely and things get a bit more exciting.

 

 

That has certainly been the case so far as we head towards the weekend. A few days ago, it looked bone dry for Central areas but now PPN is being forecast to head inland more. Hope the trend continues :D â€‹ 

​

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ARTDEMOLE Seasoned

ARTDEMOLE

Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
Posted (edited)

Overcast. Raining. 10.3c ....

Edited by ARTDEMOLE
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

This little feature looks like it has some potential for a bit of snow for some of us towards the north east of the region Saturday night, Cotswolds especially!!

Something to watch :)

post-4266-0-36800200-1447919893_thumb.gi

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