Midlands Regional Discussion Feb 2021 Onward

[Dancerwithwings]

18z ARPEGE ... though, see the rest of the run/ output

Edited November 25, 2021 by Dancerwithwings

[sheikhy]

Ecm has pushed slightly further west again!but still gives east mids 5 to 10cms of snow!west mids 2 to 5cms!!still dont believe it!!

[ANYWEATHER]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm has pushed slightly further west again!but still gives east mids 5 to 10cms of snow!west mids 2 to 5cms!!still dont believe it!!

Hang your  seaweed out ....100% reliable...

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hang your  seaweed out ....100% reliable...

Oh wait for this one mate!!euro4 gives 15 to 20 cms of snow!!!now i believe the ecm!!

[BarometerCat]

Not had time to look at the model output for today/tomorrow,  not that it makes much sense to me much.  Looks like a dynamic couple of days.    Look forward to a proper catch up later on and see what occurs.  We have Christmas light switch on around here later, might be interesting with some wet/windy/cold/snow weather.  

 

[sheikhy]

15 minutes ago, B-C said:

Not had time to look at the model output for today/tomorrow,  not that it makes much sense to me much.  Looks like a dynamic couple of days.    Look forward to a proper catch up later on and see what occurs.  We have Christmas light switch on around here later, might be interesting with some wet/windy/cold/snow weather.  

 

Yeh just gona radar watch from here on in!

[Midlands Ice Age]

Well,here we are within 24hrs of the event...

Will it, or wont it?.

Just had a couple of precursors pass through here.

First at 7:30 with a slight shower. Temperature unchanged at 6.9C. Little extra wind from WNW.

Next at 9:15 with heavier rain (a bit of hail mixed in) and a sudden very strong and gusty wind from the NNW. Temperature has fallen to 5.5C now that one has passed through. Upper clouds (cirrus) still from NW now, but whilst the shower was on the nimbus  varied widely from W to NE within 5 mins.

Apparently another one lining us up for later on.

The latest charts still look indecisive on the weather, but here I expect (well hoping)  to see a few flakes (even if they are flying past at 50 mph!!!) in my streetlight. 

Happy 'hunting' to one and all at the start of the new chase season...

 MIA

 

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[sheikhy]

Snow all night and all day tomorrrow on latest gfs 06z!!also has low slightly further east for tonight which helps!

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Snow all night and all day tomorrrow on latest gfs 06z!!also has low slightly further east for tonight which helps!

Could certainly be in the sweet spot. my suspicion is that the dp’s will be too marginal further east and the precip not intense enough further west where the dp’s are conducive. The area where it all meets could be pretty narrow. I’ve punted the west mids for days now and I don’t see any reason to move away from that. 

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Could certainly be in the sweet spot. my suspicion is that the dp’s will be too marginal further east and the precip not intense enough further west where the dp’s are conducive. The area where it all meets could be pretty narrow. I’ve punted the west mids for days now and I don’t see any reason to move away from that. 

Yup that area around brummy to just west of leicester looks to be the sweet spot at the moment!!!but encouraging to see the 06z send that low ever so slightly east which means that snow line is a touch further east!

[BarometerCat]

First Yellow warning for Snow this season for me! 

[Ali1977]

This looks ok for my location,  definitely a now-casting situation and West Midlands looks primed!! 

[sheikhy]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Could certainly be in the sweet spot. my suspicion is that the dp’s will be too marginal further east and the precip not intense enough further west where the dp’s are conducive. The area where it all meets could be pretty narrow. I’ve punted the west mids for days now and I don’t see any reason to move away from that. 

Metoffice just released a warning!!they seem to have the snow line further south and east!!!warning 2 to 5cms POTENTIALLY!!!i take that at this time of the year!!you think the metoffice are lagging behind here and being a bit too cautious blue?!!

[Midlander]

This Saturday 7 separate warnings will be in effect - I want to say that is close to a record for the number of warnings active on one day? 

 

The snow warning Starts with so much promise but the ends with:

The most likely outcome is that most places will see rain with only a little sleet or snow in the heaviest bursts.

Seems like they are just covering there backs

[Midlands Ice Age]

Next shower appeared here suddenly.

Heavier steadier rain, but the wind was not quite as strong.

Temperature has not changed with this one. Now at 6.1C, after a few bursts of sun about 20 minutes ago, and no real down droughts this time..

 Just noticed that my Dew point has gone negative and is now shown at -1.8C. (maybe a bit low on my readout) 

with the MO now issuing a 'veiled' snow warning now, we might actually get something later on.  

MIA

PS 10mins) Temp now 5.8C (DP risen to -0.7C),despite sun appearing again.Cirrus now from NNW, so gradually veering as expected..  

Edited November 26, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[el tiempo]

Precipitation turned icier here in the last 5 mins as it came down heavy and with some strong gusts

[Staffmoorlands]

Showers have turned to hail here with very strong winds.

[Midlands Ice Age]

The Dew point changes are being driven by the Relative Humidity . (as I should have expected).

Sunshine here now with my temp having leapt to 6.3C ( Gauge positioned just in the sun a the moment).. Despite this the dewpoint has dropped  to  -1.9C in the last 5 minutes.

During this time Relative Humidity has dropped from 58 to 50%. Now 48%....

I am guessing that the northerly is now bringing in the drier air, causing humidity to fall.

I guess that next shower will follow on from the Stoke area and be turning more to hail. 

An Interesting day to watch unfurl after all the non-descripts of the last 3 weeks.

Cirrus now fully from the North.

MIA  

Edited November 26, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Polar Maritime]

Well an eventful weekend coming up, Currently blustery here with sunny spells and some showers rattling through. Just back from Buxton to stock up on bits as not planning on going anywhere until Monday. 

Temp currently 5c

[MattStoke]

Pretty much every model now brings the snow further west right over Stoke.

Met Office warning is further east.

Euro4



Arome



Aperge



Harmonie



UKV

Edited November 26, 2021 by MattStoke

[sheikhy]

15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Pretty much every model now brings the snow further west right over Stoke.

Met Office warning is further east.

Euro4



Arome



Aperge



Harmonie



UKV

Yup either gfs is wrong or high resos are wrong!

[MattStoke]

On 26/11/2021 at 12:49, sheikhy said:

Yup either gfs is wrong or high resos are wrong!

GFS too brings the snow over me.

Would be far from the first time forecasters including the Met Office didn't forecast/warn of snow in Stoke only for me to get hammered.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS too brings the snow over me.

Would be far from the first time forecasters including the Met Office didn't forecast/warn of snow in Stoke only for me to get hammered.

I think its how far west things get!!gona push all further south and east eventually so most of the region will see some snow i reckon!

[sheikhy]

Ecm 06z seems further south with the low at 6am tomorrow compared to gfs!make of that what you will!!maybe blue can give us a better insight?!!

[Snowy L]

5 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm has pushed slightly further west again!but still gives east mids 5 to 10cms of snow!west mids 2 to 5cms!!still dont believe it!!

Weather presenters on TV and the Met Office don't want to know. Mostly rain,.with the odd bit of sleet on low ground. Not much middle ground between them and the models which show accumulating snow for most.