model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Pub run doing pub run things... Seems more amplified (could put this on repeat)... 

Yes, @Griff it has gone right off on one tonight, hasn’t it!  I’d bin the rest of the run, tbh!  That aside, the main take from today is that high lat blocking is possible indeed probable late November, and we might get a cold snap.  Can’t remember how to comment on a cold snap, will have to look it up!

[northwestsnow]

There is shallow troughing across SE euro and the Azores.

I can't see a Euro high anytime soon ...

 

[Duane S.]

My first post for what promises to be (hopefully) at least a half decent winter ahead.

I’ve been viewing the recent chart output intently though and it is not without interest. Clearly the lack of any meaningful Atlantic weather, now or in the offing, increases our chances greatly. I can see case for potential height builds to the NE or to the NW here. Yes in a reality we will probably end up with a MLB (not so shabby in itself). I’d certainly be keeping an eye open for some quite sudden changes to the D5 period from the charts in this respect.

I struggle to remember a November though that hasn’t promised all sorts of good things. Virtually every year of late we’ve been getting these teases, but nothing has really ever come to fruition. On a couple of recent occasions I actually think we were bang unlucky though. Maybe our time this year? Interesting for sure.

[Allseasons-Si]

On 07/11/2021 at 22:33, northwestsnow said:

There is shallow troughing across SE euro and the Azores.

I can't see a Euro high anytime soon ...

 

Great minds think alike

i have done a Nick sussex scribble on where i think this run is heading

 

we have lows in southern Azores into southern Europe bolstering the high pressures from the Azores through the UK and into NW/central Europe,these lows are in a good position to squeeze these high pressures west and east if the forcing is strong enough from the N/NW,let's see how this run pans out.

P.S,where is @nick sussex,and welcome back @s4lancia 

Edited November 7, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

What model, what run and what time please?

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What model, what run and what time please?

Sorry phone crashed 12z today. Was comparing 18z which is quite similar. No need to be abrupt, easy mistake! Irrelevant I guess if the run was off the rails earlier 

Edited November 7, 2021 by swfc

[Allseasons-Si]

On 07/11/2021 at 22:52, swfc said:

Sorry phone crashed 12z today. Was comparing 18z which is quite similar. No need to be abrupt, easy mistake! 

Hi buddy this is no dig at you as it is not in my nature but could you try and post the charts with the time/date stamps and what chart you are posting  if it is possible so that we are not guessing TIA

[northwestsnow]

❤❤

[swfc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

❤❤

Great chart pal, here's hoping

[Allseasons-Si]

This is more like it,the Azores hp cell didn't do what i asked for from 210 but it is having another go into Greenland now.

this reminds me of that weather bomb last season that sunk SE.

Edited November 7, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[UKSupercell]

Evening all, haven't posted on here for a while, but have been intermittently model-watching and keeping a close eye on this thread! 

Can someone please tell me: Is there a solid likelihood of dry and crisp frosty weather and/or snowfall - in Scotland from the 17th Nov to end of the month? 

I am planning to potentially drive to Scotland around the 17th and take perhaps 10 days holiday, wild camp, hike, road-trip etc....

I would have gone end of October when autumn colours are best there (in my experience) but car was off the road being repaired/serviced for 2 weeks as parts took a while to arrive. 

But I am not keen on going to Scotland if there is a high likelihood of constant atlantic heavy rains and gales, which will just be miserable, especially as I intend to camp/hike. 

What do you guys reckon? 

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hi buddy this is no dig at you as it is not in my nature but could you try and post the charts with the time/date stamps and what chart you are posting  if it is possible so that we are not guessing TIA

Yes. The phone crashed

[Allseasons-Si]

On 07/11/2021 at 23:03, UKSupercell said:

Evening all, haven't posted on here for a while, but have been intermittently model-watching and keeping a close eye on this thread! 

Can someone please tell me: Is there a solid likelihood of dry and crisp frosty weather and/or snowfall - in Scotland from the 17th Nov to end of the month? 

I am planning to potentially drive to Scotland around the 17th and take perhaps 10 days holiday, wild camp, hike, road-trip etc....

I would have gone end of October when autumn colours are best there (in my experience) but car was off the road being repaired/serviced for 2 weeks as parts took a while to arrive. 

But I am not keen on going to Scotland if there is a high likelihood of constant atlantic heavy rains and gales, which will just be miserable, especially as I intend to camp/hike. 

What do you guys reckon? 

Hi mate,i hope you enjoy your stay up there,...great place

i think you have every chance that the weather will play ball for you up there(as in snowfall),the pattern looks set to be meridian as in amplified(no westerly onslaught),the models keep on showing a NW>SE alignment of systems meaning that we(the UK as a whole)staying north/northeast of the jet stream

this at day ten 17th Nov from the current gfs 18z model.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

I am liking the control run,...main tpv over Siberia with southwestern flank ready to sink south through the UK,...Azores high retreating west and not much happening over Canada with height's into C America,this is going to be a stonker of a run...

Edited November 7, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[damianslaw]

GFS still toying with a northerly plunge but still beyond the 10 day timeframe..

Are we about to see a Nov 05? First half mild second half cold.. mmm..

[swfc]

Control doing its thing on the gfs 18 z in fi again

Edited November 7, 2021 by swfc

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GEFS mean in FI is very close to the CFS mean for Nov

 

[swfc]

Not much sign of the Atlantic sweeping in on that chart

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Looking at the gefs ens and there is quite a few that show a northerly of some sorts post day ten so the last third of Nov is looking on the cold side,...i know that these are beyond the reliable time frame and i know that everything can go teets up but i don't see a raging tpv or westerly's in the near future either

a few little pointers going into this winter:-

1,EQBO

2,coming out of low solar maunder minimum(as did 2010)

3,SAI(snow advance index) matching or better than 2010

4,Arctic ice cover also matching 2010(well up on last year)

5,La nina= front loaded winter i think(not my best intellect on this)

any other pieces of the puzzle that i have missed,...throw em at me cos i may of forgotten(there is that many)

have a good evening all,...be good and i will be back soon,...V soon

l8ter's.

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Ali1977]

Solid agreement on a HP being centred over the U.K. by day 6, maybe just far enough North to be a cold HP. It looks like collapsing then it’s what happens after day 9 that could be interesting with potential for a Northerly setting up!! 

 

 

 

 

GFS has a Northerly by day 12

The GEM keeps the HP nearer the U.K. and then does this by day 8  

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

ECM tries to get a Northerly feed going but it’s not a great one, but I feel we have  a good day of model watching ahead though!! 

[carinthian]

22 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, UKMO continues to show a build in heights between British Isles and Iceland. The other main models have that big North Atlantic low further east at the same time span. Which one will call it correct ? Should know on the 12z run, think ! Could be an interest day for model watchers.  A tinge of excitement in the offer.

C

 

Morning all, nice set of runs this morning from the models. Most models now following UKMO lead. Looking for a route to colder weather, we need to see those lower heights maintained over the Med and a split in the Mid - Latidude highs. Looking promising this morning for some colder shots as the month progresses and with the prospect of some nice seasonal conditions to develop later in the week.

C

[sheikhy]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM tries to get a Northerly feed going but it’s not a great one, but I feel we have  a good day of model watching ahead though!! 

Let me tell you its better than the boredom its spewed out last nightbetter output in general this morning!!

[mb018538]

Plenty of high pressure around on the 00z ECM run. Turning a bit colder on the last frame with some snow showers likely in Scotland (see above).

Also a quick cold blast on the GEM at day 9:



On the whole though it's still a fairly dry outlook for many away from the NW

  

[Frosty.]

I don’t care that it’s a toppler..I love it!

 

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by jon snow