Storm Arwen

[Simon M]

1 hour ago, Ross90 said:

Absolutely nothing in the strathclyde area at the moment, clear skies and a moderate breeze. Strange to be totally missing out on a stormy spell. 

Consider yourself lucky.  We only have a yellow warning for wind where I live with gusts expected to top out around 50mph and I'm pretty anxious, so I can't imagine how worried people in the red warning area might be.

[Tim M]

13 minutes ago, Simon M said:

Consider yourself lucky.  We only have a yellow warning for wind where I live with gusts expected to top out around 50mph and I'm pretty anxious, so I can't imagine how worried people in the red warning area might be.

Snap! Though looking at 60mph in my area. 

[Vee89]

1 minute ago, Tim M said:

Snap! Though looking at 60mph in my area. 

Can I ask are you just going off met office for local predictions of wind We are in the red area and not sure exactly what to expect . 

[Man With Beard]

Still quite a range of mac wind speeds on the models even at T9, interesting to see which is closest with future events in mind. Bear in mind with these charts, peak winds will reach places like Newcastle/Sunderland a few hours later

ICON is way out in front with 122mph, at 9pm tonight

Some models still just over 100mph, including UKMO below 

Many models around 90mph or just over, but GFS peaks at "just" 85mph, which is the lowest end of the spread

In my experience the GFS has never been wildly wrong at short range, but the sheer number of models reaching 90mph or more makes me think it's probably on the low side. Although, 100mph still feels overambitious. Where are the reporting stations in the area?

 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Man With Beard

[Tim M]

3 minutes ago, Vee89 said:

Can I ask are you just going off met office for local predictions of wind We are in the red area and not sure exactly what to expect . 

Based on advice from experienced members on here, I usually add 5-10mph to Met Office max gust predictions and usually focus on XC Weather (GFS) as being more reliable for short-term wind speed predictions or other weather models that members post. 

I am a total amateur though!!

 

Man With Beard who has just posted is a far better source of reliable advice!

Edited November 26, 2021 by Tim M

[Polar.]

Emergency services have responded to a serious incident in Antrim this afternoon, after a tree fell on a car travelling on the Dublin Road in the town.

It is understood that several people were trapped in the car. Crews from the Northern Ireland Fire and Rescue (NIFRS) have used specialist hydraulic equipment at the scene.

Just a yellow warning in Northern Ireland. Think how many trees will be felled in the red area. Not worth driving.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Polar.

[Vee89]

7 minutes ago, Tim M said:

Based on advice from experienced members on here, I usually add 5-10mph to Met Office max gust predictions and usually focus on XC Weather (GFS) as being more reliable for short-term wind speed predictions or other weather models that members post. 

I am a total amateur though!!

 

Man With Beard who has just posted is a far better source of reliable advice!

Thanks for that, I’m also a total amateur. Hoping the worst holds off until the other half is home from work at 10:30! 

[matty40s]

Everything cleared from roof or secured, extra ropes put on, houdini hatch covers strapped down, boat is now ready for whatever tonight can bring. 

I've moved the car over to the A5 in case of any snow cover as we have an early start, got ice skating in London to enjoy tommorow with the grandkids.

Edited November 26, 2021 by matty40s

[Polar.]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Still quite a range of mac wind speeds on the models even at T9, interesting to see which is closest with future events in mind. Bear in mind with these charts, peak winds will reach places like Newcastle/Sunderland a few hours later

ICON is way out in front with 122mph, at 9pm tonight

Some models still just over 100mph, including UKMO below 

Many models around 90mph or just over, but GFS peaks at "just" 85mph, which is the lowest end of the spread

In my experience the GFS has never been wildly wrong at short range, but the sheer number of models reaching 90mph or more makes me think it's probably on the low side. Although, 100mph still feels overambitious. Where are the reporting stations in the area?

 

 

 

The highest gust ever recorded in England E & NE was 107 mph, 17th December,  1979 at Lynemouth (Northumberland). I wonder was it a similar scenario to this? I can't find that chart.

Unrelated but looking at the record gusts for each region I was surprised at NW England. 101mph is the maximum. Thought it would be higher. East Anglia has lowest record at 100mph.

Scotland 142mph

N Ireland 124mph

Wales 124mph

England 118mph

[P-M]

15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Still quite a range of mac wind speeds on the models even at T9, interesting to see which is closest with future events in mind. Bear in mind with these charts, peak winds will reach places like Newcastle/Sunderland a few hours later

ICON is way out in front with 122mph, at 9pm tonight

Some models still just over 100mph, including UKMO below 

Many models around 90mph or just over, but GFS peaks at "just" 85mph, which is the lowest end of the spread

 

 

 

Thanks for sharing these MWB. Can I just ask where these are from? Are there any that show further south and the wind gusts later in the evening / overnight period? I'm curious about North east England and populated areas etc

[MKN]

4 minutes ago, Polar. said:

The highest gust ever recorded in England E & NE was 107 mph, 17th December,  1979 at Lynemouth (Northumberland). I wonder was it a similar scenario to this? I can't find that chart.

Unrelated but looking at the record gusts for each region I was surprised at NW England. 101mph is the maximum. Thought it would be higher. East Anglia has lowest record at 100mph.

Scotland 142mph

N Ireland 124mph

Wales 124mph

England 118mph

173 mph was recorded on the summit of cairngorm. (20th March 1986)

Edited November 26, 2021 by MKN

[Jo Farrow]

117mph gust  (up a mountain top)  Cairnwell

Today's Weather - Daily highs and lows - Netweather

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[Atmogenic]

My friend from Aberdeenshire is saying that buses are cancelled, 3hr waits for taxis, his work place is flooding with the lights flicking  and car alarms are going off.

 

edit: now he has seen some smashed cars

Edited November 26, 2021 by Atmogenic

[Wold Topper]

Wind starting to pick up a bit now here on the yorkshire wolds with a real cold bite to it, burner roaring n log basket full, sat with one eye on Netweather

[alexisj9]

On 26/11/2021 at 18:11, Atmogenic said:

My friend from Aberdeenshire is saying that buses are cancelled, 3hr waits for taxis, his work place is flooding with the lights flicking  and car alarms are going off. But that excites me quite a bit even though its very dangerous

 

edit: now he has seen some smashed cars

Smashed by what, debris, Or pushed into each other?

[Dale Hay]

 

[Atmogenic]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Smashed by what, debris, Or pushed into each other?

by trees and he also said a customer almost got hit by one falling down

he also said he will take a video if he can as he is stuck at work

Edited November 26, 2021 by Atmogenic

[Had Worse]

Whitley Bay Surf Report, Live Surf Cam & 16-Day Surf Forecast - Surfline

WWW.SURFLINE.COM

---

Get today's most accurate Whitley Bay surf report with live HD surf cam for current swell, wind and wave conditions. With full written report (updated twice daily) and 16-day surf forecasts, so you can know before...

Dont know if the tide is in but those waves dont look far from breaking over the walk way.

[Man With Beard]

44 minutes ago, Tim M said:

Based on advice from experienced members on here, I usually add 5-10mph to Met Office max gust predictions and usually focus on XC Weather (GFS) as being more reliable for short-term wind speed predictions or other weather models that members post. 

I am a total amateur though!!

 

Man With Beard who has just posted is a far better source of reliable advice!

Very kind! Though I think the met office have nailed it this time.

ECM 12Z is in, not dissimilar to GFS actually, peak gusts onshore stay just below 90mph. A teeny downgrade in the last 12 hours. I think we can rule out the really crazy figures now.

[Man With Beard]

33 minutes ago, P-M said:

Thanks for sharing these MWB. Can I just ask where these are from? Are there any that show further south and the wind gusts later in the evening / overnight period? I'm curious about North east England and populated areas etc

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/gusts-3h-mph/20211127-1200z.html

[rabbit butty]

28 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

Wind starting to pick up a bit now here on the yorkshire wolds with a real cold bite to it, burner roaring n log basket full, sat with one eye on Netweather

doing the same here on the lincolnshire wolds, dreading work tomorrow as I work in flimsy poly tunnels. 

[Pat Butcher]

52 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

My friend from Aberdeenshire is saying that buses are cancelled, 3hr waits for taxis, his work place is flooding with the lights flicking  and car alarms are going off.

 

edit: now he has seen some smashed cars

I appreciate it's not your mate's fault, but in general the blasé attitude to weather in this country is ridiculous. In my opinion, a Red warning should be grounds for all non-essential workplaces to close for the day.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Pat Butcher

[stripeyfox]

Glad I don't need to go anywhere. Was going to watch Melton Town v Skegness Town tomorrow but might give that a miss too!
 

 

[The PIT]

6 minutes ago, Pat Butcher said:

I appreciate it's not your mate's fault, but in general the blasé attitude to weather in this country is ridiculous. In my opinion, a Red warning should be grounds for all non-essential workplaces to close for the day.

Probably because a lot of time the severe weather doesn't turn up and the warning system isn't consistent enough and too slow to update.

[tomp456]

Living a few miles from Brighton on the south coast, I am wondering what the fuss is about..