Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[MJB]

MOGREPS also going for a cold Xmas day 

[iowpompeylee]

6 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Now that all of the models that I can find on meteociel have got up to at least Christmas Day it would be a good time to compare them all here right now.

I shall begin with the one that has the mild/cold boundary furthest to the north and work southwards.

GFS 12z Op

As is very typical of the GFS it is the mildest solution as is often the case. It would seem only Scotland has any chance of lowland snow here and with the usual "blow up the low pressure" too much scenario it often plays then this comes as no surprise

CFS 06z

Yesterday's CFS 06z seems like an age ago now and was a decent run too with easterlies from Christmas Eve right up to at least 6th January. Today's run is a lot less cold and has the cold air very much in Scotland again although with the boundary a little further south then far northern parts of England may get in on the Christmas fun.

GEM 12z

Very similar to the CFS 06z in where the mild/cold boundary is. Probably a similar outcome to the CFS here with snow mainly in Scotland.

ECM 12z

The ECM brings the mild/cold boundary a little bit further south than on the CFS and GEM although this is a downgrade for the ECM compared with the 00z run. Very much Scotland and Northern England in for the Christmas snow fun here. A bit too far north still for my area but at least a bit closer than the models featured so far.

ICON 12z

A very similar mild/cold boundary to ECM. The bit that makes this ICON better than ECM is the more continental SE flow ahead of the low which should bring in more surface cold/lower dewpoints which should increase the snow chances in the boundary zone.

NAVGEM 06z

Finally the first model that potentially has my area in the firing line for snow chances. With a slack flow and fronts stalled across central UK this means the Midlands and Northern England have the greatest chance of snow here.

JMA 12z

The mild/cold boundary is just a bit further south again here with the JMA. This puts the Midlands as a more definite snow zone now. Hope the JMA is the closest to the actual outcome for Christmas Day in terms of snow chances for my area at least although others may have their own preferred outcome in a different model shown here.

UKMO 12z

Finally and last and by no means least we have the UKMO. It is the most bullish for having a cold Christmas Day today and has pretty much the whole UK within the colder air. The snow threat is mostly in the south here and if anyone wants a south of the M4 event then they would want to pray that the UKMO is the correct solution.

Great post! In Ukmo we trust

[Climate Man]

2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

It might not be exactly the same, but I think the overall pattern will be correct; the low going too far North because the heights have weakened over Greenland. If the UKMO sticks to its guns I will be very surprised. 

It's natural to be gutted when only a few days ago we could have had Blizzards , instead it will be rain every where except for Scotland. Yuck. Still maybe after Christmas or into the New Year we will get lucky.

Just thrown in the towel and told family and friends to expect cold rain, in spite of UKMO. That should sort it but time for a break.

[Updated_Weather]

Even the likes of John Hammond are saying the same.. they cannot call Xmas yet. 
so why are people in here? 
If pros can’t.. we certainly can’t. Why? Because the models are still NOT in agreement.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Wow wow and wow again..for ages it was mother of all winters on the way with solar minimum.. then it was it will arrive as we come out of it. Now its increased sunspot activity perhaps ruining it for us..

I don't think anyone on here should be congratulating themselves on what model was correct its tedious annoying and pretty darn childish..Know model has won the day a week before Xmas,infact most of them have completely lost there way since the typhoon interference on the mjo phase..I think things will become clearer once the dust settles on that.

There is know one model that as won the day...all we are seeing is wild fluctuations from run to run..and Monday will most likely be completely different again!

There is much more water to go under the bridge on this saga just yet...and tbh even if Xmas does not deliver...what's the big deal?we still remain at the races and in a good place moving forward. But I'm sure some of you will be saying the 46 on Monday and a met office re write up tomorrow will spell the end of it fullstop!

Clairvoyance in full effect here chaps.

At least we squeeze a Ntly towards the end of the run..but for me...the models have lost there way big time here...they've developed strongish Heights towards the NW and then removed em instantly...teleconnection signals are playing havoc on the models...and let's not forget the models can only pick up on what those signals are showing.

Edited December 19, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, MJB said:

MOGREPS also going for a cold Xmas day 

Really they have flipped cold once more?

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

For xmas day????? only

The 80% was actually for a cold & snowy phase starting sometime between 23rd and 28th of November, anyway. Xmas day isn't the only day snow could fall and we could enjoy it.

[SqueakheartLW]

1 minute ago, iowpompeylee said:

Great post! In Ukmo we trust

It is our own UK model so in theory it should be most accurate for the UK shouldn't it?

[weathercold]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

For xmas day????? only

When is the snow forecast for say the south based on the GFS and ECM? Based on yesterday’s charts surely you can concede we have taken many steps back ?

[E17boy]

It’s really been a horror show today. I guess now it’s time for me to

give up

got a picture of you on my phone pad

and your water marks on my laptop

And a head of shattered dreams

got to leave it all behind now

what Eva gfs said what Eva ecm said they didn’t mean it

just want you back for good
 

I am truly downbeat sorry guys
 

regards

 

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

It is our own UK model so in theory it should be most accurate for the UK shouldn't it?

If only that how it worked!

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Wow wow and wow again..for ages it was mother of all winters on the way with solar minimum.. then it was it will arrive as we come 9ut of it.  Now its increased sunspot activity perhaps ruining it for us..

I don't think anyone on here should be congratulating themselves on what model was correct its tedious annoying and pretty darn childish..Know model has won the day a week before Xmas,infact most of them have completely lost there way since the typhoon interference on the mjo phase..I think things will become clearer once the dust settles on that.

There is know one model that as won the day...all we are seeing is wild fluctuations from run to run..and Monday will most likely be completely different again!

There is much more water to go under the bridge on this saga just yet...and tbh even if Xmas does not deliver...what's the big deal?we still remain at the races and in a good place moving forward. But I'm sure some of you will be saying the 46 on Monday and a met office re write up tomorrow will spell the end of it fullstop!

Clairvoyance in full effect here chaps.

At least we squeeze a Ntly towards the end of the run..but for me...the models have lost there way big time here...they've developed strongish Heights towards the NW and then removed em instantly...teleconnection signals are playing havoc on the models...and let's not forget the models can only pick up on what thise signals are showing.

Brilliant post

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The 80% was actually for a cold & snowy phase starting sometime between 23rd and 28th of November, anyway. Xmas day isn't the only day snow could fall and we could enjoy it.

Backing you up Kasim.

[John88B]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

MOGREPS also going for a cold Xmas day 

If MOGREPS is going for cold for Christmas should we not sit up and take notice. Plenty for cold lovers to still be positive about.

[cobbett]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

MOGREPS also going for a cold Xmas day 

Depends what u mean by cold and where - around 7c London

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Backing you up Kasim.

Yes mate fully aware

[iowpompeylee]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

It is our own UK model so in theory it should be most accurate for the UK shouldn't it?

I prefer it, and your right it should be most accurate. Also have to say having a majority of mogreps stamps pointing towards cold on Xmas day, which they weren’t yesterday. I’m thinking this isn’t over yet!!! 

[draztik]

Time and time again, the GFS is routinely binned for showing Synoptics that look ‘suspect’… however, we have all been here before. It’s the golden rule of model viewing.. esp w/ regards to the GFS. Once it picks up a trend, and builds on it with each successive run… you know something is afoot. Hopefully next time when it does this again, it won’t be so unceremoniously  binned. However, I won’t hold my breath! 

[Kasim Awan]

Anyone got the mogreps 12z data?

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, cobbett said:

Depends what u mean by cold and where - around 7c London

Based on what?

please don’t say an app I have. The most unreliable thing out there! 
also no model has Xmas day yet so just ignore what it says for now until Wednesday/Thursday!

[Dimie10]

15 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

What an absolute massive kick in the nuts . We’ve gone from a cold dry frosty Xmas to a cold snowy Xmas to crappy wet Xmas . The models over the last week have been terrible at forecasting what the outcome was going to be . Never seems to amaze me tho it’s always the option we want ie cold/snow that never comes off . Beginning to think is there any point coming on here every winter anymore ? Unless we get a SSW we don’t seem to get winter ( and that still no guarantee) . Utterly frustrating. 

Brilliant!! Exactly how i feel, years of following this and it more often than not results in hopes smashed!! literally goes from boom to bust in a page or two!! i give up 

[Kasim Awan]

Who's saying the ecm ensembles will take a massive turnaround to the ukmo & everyone is suddenly massively upbeat again

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Anyone got the mogreps 12z data?

Much colder for bham, a small correction south and it could be on again,

Regarding sunspots it's a very  poorly understood in terms of effects on our atmosphere, but once the period of solar wind radiation passes you would think blocking would re-establish, but the timing is awful for Xmas if that is the cause.

Edited December 19, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,five days to Christmas Day and total confusion with what will happen,the charts are in a disarray.

As Matt Hugo mentions never known such disagreement.Lots to still change possibly down to 72 hrs 

one to remember for who gets nearest to resolve this meteorological set up.I hope it’s UKMO.

 

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

I prefer it, and your right it should be most accurate. Also have to say having a majority of mogreps stamps pointing towards cold on Xmas day, which they weren’t yesterday. I’m thinking this isn’t over yet!!! 

You seen the stamps? Can you post please?