SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Tn9]

17 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Leave the mild weather moaning model thread too it, lol, had frost here since dusk this evening, and it's freezing.

I can hear  dummies hitting our thread roof can you ..but tbh it's like watching paint dry you have to vent frustration somewhere just a shame the Artic doesn't choose our way every now and again

[snowrye]

Daffodils out and flowering, becoming an all too regular occurrence. Old man winter only likes to make fleeting appearances, usually march.

[alexisj9]

23 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Daffodils out and flowering, becoming an all too regular occurrence. Old man winter only likes to make fleeting appearances, usually march.

Not here yet. Although there are a few rise bushes about still with leaves and flowering, just not as nicely as in spring/summer.

[Reefseeker]

22 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Daffodils out and flowering, becoming an all too regular occurrence. Old man winter only likes to make fleeting appearances, usually march.

Indeed. I found a dead bumble bee along the prom yesterday in Bournemouth and this lunchtime in Surbiton a bee in the garden peered in through our window. In the meantime, flies are still hovering over food in the house as if it's summer. But I remain optimistic - as others have noted, we've had some more seasonal weather of late plus the prospects this week are looking positive and cold uppers seem easier to get hold of than this time last year - so fingers crossed, or is it all just wishful thinking?

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, TN9 said:

I can hear  dummies hitting our thread roof can you ..but tbh it's like watching paint dry you have to vent frustration somewhere just a shame the Artic doesn't choose our way every now and again

Might not be long now till the AMO is in our favour hopefully

[Tn9]

10 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Might not be long now till the AMO is in our favour hopefully

I hope so this time, which really it tries to do what we wanted ,the med low starts filling, our little disturbance nearly pulls shortwave underneath but because that southern  arm is not   there no  more  then it itself gets pulled 2500 miles north and over the top ..then at the end of (gfs)run tries the same again ..that's not even, like yourself, looking at the main drivers ..our winter weather relies on to many bloody drivers

[Tn9]

19 minutes ago, TN9 said:

I hope so this time, which really it tries to do what we wanted ,the med low starts filling, our little disturbance nearly pulls shortwave underneath but because that southern  arm is not   there no  more  then it itself gets pulled 2500 miles north and over the top ..then at the end of (gfs)run tries the same again ..that's not even, like yourself, looking at the main drivers ..our winter weather relies on to many bloody drivers

But on the other hand this time the high is a tad better oriented ,as in we (at moment ) get a better (not perfect) wind direction for our region ,wind from the north means diddly snow wise here  ,seasonal maybe thats all  ,but you need even the northerly  directly sorced with disturbances embedded or a sad to watch  snow to rain melarky ...as always fingers crossed .

Edited January 10, 2022 by TN9

[Tn9]

Just a quick one from yesterdays high cloud photos on closer look ....1 is how far away and high it is (telephone line as guide lol)where the shadow is ..2.on the curved bit right hand looks like a portal ..not interdimensional one but a train one ..3 4 are as it turns 45° and starts sucking cloud in from around it till whole lot is spinning like.high.level tornado twisting with out debris so you can see ribbon.like feature in middle...

[Sparky68]

Talk about a contrast , barely above freezing and a ground frost  yesterday. This morning , 7C and back to the drizzle. No wonder the Daffs dont know whether they are coming or going!

15 hours ago, TN9 said:

I can hear  dummies hitting our thread roof can you ..but tbh it's like watching paint dry you have to vent frustration somewhere just a shame the Artic doesn't choose our way every now and again

To be honest , they would spit their dummies out even if they got Snow . Would moan they only got 10" when promised 12" ooooer Mrs.

[Blazerblue]

Feeling very mild out first thing this morning, thankfully the drizzle hasnt reached here yet, but looks like a horrible drizzle day, but then hopefully a few bright, dry and possibly frosty days to come   

[Tn9]

Well because @Eagle Eye said about the main drivers at play I've had butchers (and I don't like to tbh )I reckon we will be lucky to even have a cold snap let alone a period of artic or even continental cold ..yea it's changing but all a bit to little to late for us .. unless an odd ball flies up locally ..I so hope I'm so very wrong for winters sake

 

You wait now ..we will have a winter wonderland now I've piped up ..:-)

Edited January 11, 2022 by TN9

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning all 

 

About to have one if my most favourite types of weather.. FOG!

Could be some very impressive hoar frosts over the next week or so. 

Amazingingly after a fairly clear start albeit cloudy the fog has come down already!

Queue pea soup!! Fog really does provide a strange environment when walking out and about. You forget buildings and trees are there then all of sudden they appear when you get closer!

For one living next to an airport flight path as well, the lack of planes is also welcome although I know probably not good for all the people being delayed. 

I reckon somewhere is going to go below 50m visibility which will make driving very tricky, shame people don't drive to the conditions and instead think everywhere is an F1 track.

[Eagle Eye]

Very interesting collapsing wave in Greenland that seems to be allowing the dry cold air to push inwards from the northeast and eventually this could collapse east and connect up with that European blocking. This wouldn't last for long but it's interesting we could see a brief and strong cold wave from the east for such a short time and perhaps with a little bit of luck and a sudden switch to El Nino whilst blocking is happening whether it's this one or another (this is possible soon but not this soon I wouldn't think) then we could severely weaken the Pacific standing wave and stop the Atlantic building up Rossby waves to stop them stopping eastern blocking. This is why you see a lot of extremes at the end of events because of the energy and tension that builds up in secret and is released usually by something in the Pacific affecting it.

[scrat]

20 hours ago, TN9 said:

Just a quick one from yesterdays high cloud photos on closer look ....1 is how far away and high it is (telephone line as guide lol)where the shadow is ..2.on the curved bit right hand looks like a portal ..not interdimensional one but a train one ..3 4 are as it turns 45° and starts sucking cloud in from around it till whole lot is spinning like.high.level tornado twisting with out debris so you can see ribbon.like feature in middle...

These photo's are wonderful.  You should add to the 'Cloud album'

[Tn9]

10 minutes ago, scrat said:

These photo's are wonderful.  You should add to the 'Cloud album'

Thank you mate i put the whole lot in  there in a album or something ..there is  so many amazing pics on here (plus high cloud is boring compared )  but the thing I felt was strange though was it was other than that distubance a normal high cloud cold winter day ,stuck out like a sore thumb

[Eagle Eye]

I think this sums up today 

[Tn9]

3 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

I think this sums up today 

thats mid day as well i guess

[Tn9]

6 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Very interesting collapsing wave in Greenland that seems to be allowing the dry cold air to push inwards from the northeast and eventually this could collapse east and connect up with that European blocking. This wouldn't last for long but it's interesting we could see a brief and strong cold wave from the east for such a short time and perhaps with a little bit of luck and a sudden switch to El Nino whilst blocking is happening whether it's this one or another (this is possible soon but not this soon I wouldn't think) then we could severely weaken the Pacific standing wave and stop the Atlantic building up Rossby waves to stop them stopping eastern blocking. This is why you see a lot of extremes at the end of events because of the energy and tension that builds up in secret and is released usually by something in the Pacific affecting it.

You can see that (gfs) doesn't quite know where to take the energy ..one run this the other this ,that Azores low is playing havoc ,which is a feat itself against the big picture ,06z had it diving underneath eventually and the shortwave blocked ,then on the 12z again its in two minds what to do ,but through its umm and erring its kept the pressure low west of Portugal,which i feel is still a force  against the big players  ,a climatic pain in the a**e 

[Sparky68]

The up and down weather continues 

[Tn9]

20 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

The up and down weather continues 

Went to bed relativly drizzly and mild and woke to not quite a frost but not far off brrr

[Tn9]

On the 00z run the Azores low keeps our chances going we can  ask no more of it than to prop up a high that's so reluctant to leave Europe but then again it  is against the big run of play ,not sure if the weather is toying with the models ,the models are toying with us or its not sure how long it's going to take to extract, if at all the euro high from default position ??

[Sparky68]

We now have Fog ! Can see this Winter be a proper let down.

[Atmogenic]

another lovely morning (as I say waking up at 10am) and I hope this continues with the high pressure we're having over us right now and no more overcast crap 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Sparky68 said:

We now have Fog ! Can see this Winter be a proper let down.

We had rain last night, ice this morning, and nice sunny sky now, expect the fog will come tonight, along with frost.

[Soaring Hawk]

Beautiful day here after yesterday's depressing permagloom; everything white earlier although bit misty so sun didn't appear until around 8am.  Since then sunshine and clear blue sky, with just this high level cloud, facing east of where I'm currently working.  Weather station reporting 4.7°C at home, after an overnight low of -1°C.   Very light SW wind, 3.9mph 10 minute average.  Pressure 1040.4hPa steady.  .8mm of rain has fallen in last 24 hours.