SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Tn9]

3 hours ago, Team Squirrel said:

I don't need a thermometer to tell me how cold it is, I simply count the number of visits  by the robin and blue tit on my little windowsill feeder/camera set up.

7 visits yesterday, 34 visits today! 

Also, our local fox doesn't come for his piece of buttered toast when it's colder than minus 1, I've noticed. Colder than zero and it's there untouched in the morning.

i reckon the fox realizing its got chilly ,more than he or she is prepared to wait for your toast and booked into the nearest premier inn  strange because they are not usually fussy if hungry 

[Tn9]

Well ive seen it all now ..gfs @150 not sure where to put the centre of high pressure ..it erms and ahh s all the time, me  thnking, no worries, siberian ,long haul air lovely ,but sods law takes over and rearranges -10 air which we had our eye on wafts it 200 miles SOUTH of us spins it back out into southern Ireland comes back  across  us 6c warmer ,that cant be right

[Tn9]

This is my analysis ..synoptic view some would say ,i live in Brentwood i want to see my friend in Sevenoaks old car i drive via Heathrow over heating time i get there ,why ??? i dont like going over the water ,our cold air doesn't ,our storms don't(unless they are few  thousand feet up the air) i would put this in ramps and moans but its usually a Kentish thing ,not quite in the sweet spot like Wiltshire Dorset Bristol even  Hampshire Surrey Sussex in varied states ,east Anglia ,well ,split that ,even Essex that's our biggest allies in getting nowt is across the magical north of London snow line ..norfork suffolk might as well be yorkshire dales it has to be perfect here for a good covering

[Eagle Eye]

Wasn't expecting this sight to greet me at sunrise 

 

[Atmogenic]

another lovely sunny morning again, I hope this is for the making up of the atrocious december, though prefer it to be summer right now ( high twenties to low thirties) instead of winter 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Atmogenic

[Eagle Eye]

Backend heavy showers behind the main system tomorrow approaching at sunset, I notice that these systems tend to have moved further on than the models suggest so could see an approaching evening shower or perhaps even better with one lit by the sun having gone to my north and could be good for pictures and the backend of the main system is leaving around that time as well. One thing you'll probably get is cloud cover so I'll hope that at least some breaks which is it expected to.

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Backend heavy showers behind the main system tomorrow approaching at sunset, I notice that these systems tend to have moved further on than the models suggest so could see an approaching evening shower or perhaps even better with one lit by the sun having gone to my north and could be good for pictures and the backend of the main system is leaving around that time as well. One thing you'll probably get is cloud cover so I'll hope that at least some breaks which is it expected to.

It.all seems to be going on south of me here earlier showers and now the main stuff as well 

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, TN9 said:

 It.all seems to be going on south of me here earlier showers and now the main stuff as well 

Tomorrow evening looks more sustainable for some backend storm pictures with a little bit of luck

[stodge]

Yes, the current mass of rain, sleet and snow looks to be heading south east to the south west of the capital but should hit Surrey and East and West Sussex.

Presume it's mainly rain to lower ground - sleet over the Downs?

The shower over the Peaks could approach from the north west but suspect it will fade before it gets anywhere near north and east London.

[Mizzle]

Here in NE Hampshire, some unexpected prawn cracker snowflakes. Won't amount to much as it's very wet, but pretty to see, albeit briefly. 

[Hampshire Hillbilly]

Light covering of snow in Four Marks, NE Hants 200m asl. 

[Tn9]

13 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Here in NE Hampshire, some unexpected prawn cracker snowflakes. Won't amount to much as it's very wet, but pretty to see, albeit briefly. 

Prawn cracker ..love it ..50p bits usually lol,there's not been a dollop all day here yet ..nothing just from blue skies this morning to a leaden sky this afternoon 

[John Stevens]

Steady snow here in The Surrey Hills for about the last 15mn or so. Too wet on the ground to settle.

 

EDIT- proper heavy snow now 

Edited January 7, 2022 by John Stevens

[Blazerblue]

What a glorious morning it is, NOT. Rain from 7am that looks to be here for the entire day, with heavier rain coming through later. Day to stay in bed, shut the curtains and hibernate.

[Tn9]

11 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

What a glorious morning it is, NOT. Rain from 7am that looks to be here for the entire day, with heavier rain coming through later. Day to stay in bed, shut the curtains and hibernate.

It hasn't really got light this morning here ,what a dreary damp twilight of day and adding insult to injury I don't usually look at model runs till end (it effects my psyche) and my advice is don't ,but it's least dryer and milder going forward other than a couple of days when we might have a flurry or two of snow , beats wet damp and half cold 

[Eagle Eye]

Don't really want to play football in this dreary weather

[Tn9]

Just now, Eagle Eye said:

Don't really want to play football in this dreary weather

Don't blame you I never used to either but funny enough I hated frosty super cold mornings my hands  used to go numb and you might as well been playing on concrete lol

[Tn9]

And @Eagle Eye that distubance over the Azores doesn't at the moment look like it's strong enough to pull anything or delay enough for. the high to transfer but it might change at the moment we have a block but in the wrong orientation

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, TN9 said:

Don't blame you I never used to either but funny enough I hated frosty super cold mornings my hands  used to go numb and you might as well been playing on concrete lol

The only good thing to play in is 20 degrees or snow. Don't like playing in storms because I can't chase them, I have once before and lightning struck the field next to us AND WE KEPT PLAYING
Much prefer cricket because it's a summer sport and I love batting and not getting out, tests to me are more fun than t20's somehow and I also like running because it clears my thoughts much like storm chasing ( I've ran around my village chasing storms before)
But I only like sports when it's a perfect 20 degrees and a light breeze 

[Eagle Eye]

13 minutes ago, TN9 said:

And @Eagle Eye that distubance over the Azores doesn't at the moment look like it's strong enough to pull anything or delay enough for. the high to transfer but it might change at the moment we have a block but in the wrong orientation

That wave is much different than I was expecting in terms of it's momentum ( a slight change has major consequences because the energy of a wave relies a lot on momentum as well as gradient), what happen to the African wave pushing on it?
 
I'm going to be probably the first person to say, we need a stronger African wave push to bring cold and snow.
There's still a chance though, if that African wave strengthens it's push it will wrap up as quickly as was expected a few runs ago and so change the direction of the wave to as it was before just perhaps a bit later.
Here's a comparison, 1st now, 2nd from a few days ago

[Atmogenic]

been a while since i've seen almost the complete south covered in rain on the radar

[Tn9]

2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

That wave is much different than I was expecting in terms of it's momentum ( a slight change has major consequences because the energy of a wave relies a lot on momentum as well as gradient), what happen to the African wave pushing on it?
 
I'm going to be probably the first person to say, we need a stronger African wave push to bring cold and snow.
There's still a chance though, if that African wave strengthens it's push it will wrap up as quickly as was expected a few runs ago and so change the direction of the wave to as it was before just perhaps a bit later.
Here's a comparison, 1st now, 2nd from a few days ago

yea totally and i love ya enthusiasm in any situation ,that takes a lot of doing ,but like in hurricane season ,they are like leaves in breeze ,they at first are like a ship without rudder ,till they are big enough deep enough to influence the area around them ..so rely on mid latitude low pressure to haul them north ..climatic heat exchange really ,sad if your area is devastated i understand that but dont build straw houses in where you know this happens ...its our  climate ..this time like we was saying we or i was hoping it would try to work in reverse so our tropical or sub tropical distubance over Azores would try to drag jet south enough before the vortex bowled a shortwave through the gap ..we will have to wait as usual ..fingers crossed

[Tn9]

and im sorry if come across as a moany old git ..im not, but people here, if snow and the winter weather is your thing  we can now see these days live across other places,so nw england scotland all high ground in north wonder what we are moaning about ,but look yesterday as an example ,northern high ground even surrey hampshire had snow falling ,rain here if only little as we missed most of it ,80 miles south of us in Holland Belgium turns readily to snow ..and you can watch you can go to the snow,but nothing beats it falling in your own back garden ,i think  

[Eagle Eye]

I think we should be glad that we get snow,  I have friends from parts of the world that never get snow and so have never seen snow in their lives and the fact that we get storms as well, could be better but could be worse, it's the wait that kills you...

[Eagle Eye]

41 minutes ago, TN9 said:

yea totally and i love ya enthusiasm in any situation ,that takes a lot of doing ,but like in hurricane season ,they are like leaves in breeze ,they at first are like a ship without rudder ,till they are big enough deep enough to influence the area around them ..so rely on mid latitude low pressure to haul them north ..climatic heat exchange really ,sad if your area is devastated i understand that but dont build straw houses in where you know this happens ...its our  climate ..this time like we was saying we or i was hoping it would try to work in reverse so our tropical or sub tropical distubance over Azores would try to drag jet south enough before the vortex bowled a shortwave through the gap ..we will have to wait as usual ..fingers crossed

There are definitely two directions of movement that can help us bring air from the east but hundreds of directions that won't. A lot of that involves the African wave and what type of momentum we get from the Azores. We've got to hope that it drags the jet south or north but that relies on the extremities and so will only happen 1 times out of however many. There's a lot to rely on here and we have to keep an eye out because it can turn any time (much like the last one), for better or worse...

Hold on what have we got here?

We've got a Rossby wave hitting an Azores low and rotating it slightly into the same trajectory of NE ejection as of 2018, we can dream once again...

Edited January 8, 2022 by Eagle Eye