SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Sparky68]

Was not expecting snow. Made getting up at 4am easier to take.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well this is a surprise to wake up to. A solid dusting of snow on the ground.

[lottiekent]

1 hour ago, MattH said:

Just flicking through some of the EC46 plots, amongst a busy weekend shift, and I think there is already some evidence for changes in there, for towards and beyond mid-December.

As ever the usefulness of the layout of the EC46 images on a day-by-day basis allows you to see clear trends and a few links to some of the more interesting ones are as follows...

The regime changes are trending away from a resolute 'blue' or +NAO to now a very uncertain 'no regime' signal in the latest plot. You can see how the predicted +ve NAO has been nibbled away at in recent days to now the most recent one nearly losing that strong signal altogether.

The other series of plots which have changed is the VP signal, obviously no surprises on this one after numerous comments and discussions on this thread, but the last few runs highlight that strengthening signal.

Lastly, the one that stood out the most to me was the general 500mb height anomalies - We can see how the signal was for -ve 500mb height anoms over NW Europe a week or so ago, with a cyclonic signal through the 18th to the 25th Dec. However, note how that signal has been nibbled away at as well with now the most recent signal showing something far more blocked.

 

Whether this is just run-to-run variability, time will tell, but I don't think it is. Again this is why viewing these plots in this format is better than looking at them individually as you can visually see and extract potential trends and there are certainly trends there in my opinion already.

Once this -VP200 signal and associated MJO event pushes further into the W Pacific with a resultant +GLAAM/+GWO rise, it should be a fascinating watch from an NWP perspective in the 10 to 15-day time period, again as I mentioned the other day, covering the final third (20th-31st) or so, or now perhaps even earlier...

Cheers, Matt.

I love the weather, have been a member on this forum since the demise of the BBC weather forum (with its infamous SCOD poster and 11pm closing time) so for more years than I care to remember. But I still have a lot to learn - I *think* what Matt is saying here is that the trend is towards a blocked signal with a colder theme for end of month? 
 

Rather than making an idiot of myself in the mod thread from where this was quoted, I’m hoping one of my more learned SE members can help please? 

[lawrenk]

Oh to be in Windermere yesterday evening. Christmas lights, heavy snow, beautiful scenery to wake up to this morning. Perfect.

[pinball wizard]

16 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I love the weather, have been a member on this forum since the demise of the BBC weather forum (with its infamous SCOD poster and 11pm closing time) so for more years than I care to remember. But I still have a lot to learn - I *think* what Matt is saying here is that the trend is towards a blocked signal with a colder theme for end of month? 
 

Rather than making an idiot of myself in the mod thread from where this was quoted, I’m hoping one of my more learned SE members can help please? 

Hi Lottie

My reading of Matt H's post is that there had previously been a strong signal for low pressure to be the dominant force behind our weather, however, he is now observing that signal to be much weaker and for there to be no particular pattern to be dominant. 

That could be the start of a trend away from a +nao pattern towards more of a -nao pattern, and usually the , -nao is one associated with a blocked Atlantic and cold for us. 

[Kentspur]

Slight partial dusting after some huge wet flakes fell this morning for a little while feeding the muntjac bucks here on the Suffolk-Norfolk borderlands. Feels very seasonal here! After being in Sweden and then encountering some snow showers the morning after I came back back home ive now seen atleast a small amount of snow falling on 5 of the last 6 days a memorable period I wont forget

[alexisj9]

Freezing rain last night just after I got in, normal rain every now and then since.

[slater]

Light steady rain here and a temp of 3.2c from a very cold -2 all day yesterday, . apart from the lightest of dusting on Friday morning nothing to note here in mid Norfolk… Showers stayed well to the Far East coast last week, but i always feel having this cold set up early that the North Sea is always way to warm…If it was February I think it may have been another story.

Then when the weather pattern does change from the west we never see that transition from Snow to rain happen either..

Now question is where do we go from here .I can’t see any cold next 2 weeks just the normal for the December which may contain some frosty nights , if a break in the cloud happens . Next weekend looking to be complete contrast with temperatures in double figures… It feels like this was a great opportunity in the east that just didn’t happen…….Again!, 

[Snowangel-MK]

Well at least one member of the family got to build a snowman ️ Master D now lives in Shropshire- sadly just wet cold rain here in MK 

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Freezing rain last night just after I got in, normal rain every now and then since.

I guess it was the same up here; now it's raining and 3C.

[Bazza118]

temperature steadily rising here. light drizzle and temp 6c.

[Uxbridge90]

Wet, grey and miserable, yuck. Hopefully the temperatures rise as the week goes on if it's going to be like this.

[SHM040519]

Back to a Kentish winter special. Cold cold rain! 

[lassie23]

10 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Same here unsure what for?

In that case don't go for a walk, it will be slippery.

Halloween is gone Guy Fawkes gone, Diwali gone, what's left lol

[lassie23]

I didn't even get the pleasure of being hit in the eyeball by a snowgrain

Hope everyone enjoyed winter 2023/2024

[pinball wizard]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

I didn't even get the pleasure of being hit in the eyeball by a snowgrain

Hope everyone enjoyed winter 2023/2024

I'm sure there'll be opportunities to come Lassie, at least another 87 days of winter to come!

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, SHM040519 said:

Back to a Kentish winter special. Cold cold rain! 

At least we got some snow out of this spell, not everyone down south did. Considering the time of year, it was a nice surprise, really thought anything from the north sea would be rain.

[Sno' problem]

3 hours ago, lassie23 said:

I didn't even get the pleasure of being hit in the eyeball by a snowgrain

Hope everyone enjoyed winter 2023/2024

Hahahaha, the third day of 'Winter' and it's all over already! 
I have a feeling there will be many a late night lamp-post watching in the months to come. 

[TROY]

Very wet here all day in East Dene, some heavy rain too at times. Love these dark early evenings.

[lottiekent]

Before the freezing rain, leaves:

After the freezing rain, no leaves:

 

I could hear them hitting the other leaves on the grass as they dropped off as everything was frozen solid.

Edited December 3, 2023 by lottiekent

[Stroudley]

This time yesterday evening:   -3.8C

This evening:  9.8C

And 12.6mm of rain today (so far).

[Polaris]

A balmy 4c here in Bedfordshire compared to the -4c 2 days ago. 
 

Reset and default to a wet, rank, mild U.K. winter to month end. (Probably beyond too) 
 

[andymcpool]

Just heard a seagull fly past in Balham.

[Froze were the Days]

What a dreadful day...one which daylight didn't exist. Glad for a few that experienced a few flakes yesterday, chortle.

[MAF]

Hey ho, it's winter 

rain, mist, dark, cold wind and did i mention rain. Still early days yet according to the believers of models