North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

[alr1970]

I don't buy it! 850 shows a huge outlier spike:

and the 2m temp follows:

while the pressure shows a huge sudden drop:

but there's next to no rain in the top two charts. I would expect a big rain spike too in that case, it looks like a low-pressure sucking up warm moist air from the south which would normally indicate big storms.

Anyway they're all in the chaotic region of the ensembles so I would give them no credence until the pack starts to agree and it all tightens up. And even then, in winter I've seen far off outlier cold signals become close up consensus cold predictions, then fade back to average as zero-hour arrives. Don't be disappointed if the same happens here.

[Frost HoIIow]

Not a bad day today, felt quite warm this afternoon although breezy. Looking further ahead a warm up still looks likely but how hot is just guesswork at the moment. But no doubt in this warming world it won't be long before we are thrown into the furnace.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Frost HoIIow

[severe snowstorm]

It quickly turned into a decent day here after an overcast start with some drizzle early on which didn't last all that long. A lovely sunny afternoon with a high of 19.4C and breezy. Not much to grumble about really.

[iand61]

As others have said it’s another improving day with cloud and even a bit of damp this morning turning to more and more sunshine as the afternoon went on.

just cut the grass after last weeks showers meant leaving it for longer than usual but it’s grown a lot less than I expected so time to sit out with a  

[iand61]

If the models turn out to be accurate then I imagine it’s going to really test the patience of us in the northwest as once again we sit under out cloudy skies and average temperatures watching enviously as anywhere to the south enjoys a few days of sunshine and heat.

don’t get wrong, I don’t want the record breaking temperatures being talked about but a few days of proper summer conditions wouldn’t go amiss, especially as pictures of folk sat out in every London park are going to be rammed down out throat if the south’s heatwave does happen.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS not really hot for us, just maybe Monday that may be 25C, rest of week fairly average, just hope not too cool and wet

[Had Worse]

18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS not really hot for us, just maybe Monday that may be 25C, rest of week fairly average, just hope not too cool and wet

Grey and drizzly as I type. The only positive being that the plants don't need me to water them.

[alr1970]

 

Oh look!

[severe snowstorm]

A similar start to yesterday, overcast with some drizzle, but should hopefully clear away during this morning to leave another decent afternoon with some sunshine. Not bothered if we miss out on scorching temperatures in a few days time, those down South are welcome to it. Temps into the low to mid 20s is more than adequate for me and still provides warm enough evenings for sitting out.

Edited July 6, 2022 by severe snowstorm

[WillinGlossop]

1 hour ago, Had Worse said:

Grey and drizzly as I type. The only positive being that the plants don't need me to water them.

Gorillas in the mist type weather ?

[A Face like Thunder]

Yes, another strange morning given the forecast of sun and warmth away from the 'NW' (of Scotland?). Drizzle early but cleared for the moment but with no sign of the sun yet. Clearly a NW / SE divide 

 

 

2 hours ago, alr1970 said:

 

Oh look!

I've got the dentist on Tuesday 19th. I hope their A/C is working!

Edited July 6, 2022 by A Face like Thunder

[Had Worse]

Can't really see it but there is a watery sun visible through the glass roof trying to warm things up here at Manchester Children's hospital. 

[WillinGlossop]

Breeze has picked up and after clearance of drizzle we have drizzle again lovely

[A Face like Thunder]

Drizzle has not returned but neither has the sun and a gloomy day overall 

[dodge]

Gloomy & Murky definitely the theme for today, what a waste of nearly 17hrs of mid summer daylight... still time for the day to redeem itself,  but this cloud doesn't look like its ready for shifting anytime soon. Still at least it's not lashing it down... I'm sure the weather gods are saving that for August!

[iand61]

Another day where the only patch of drizzle in the entire country quite happily parked itself across our region and as others have said, another one where practically the longest available amount of daylight turned into little more than a gloom fest.

yes there are tantalising signs of better things towards the weekend and into next week but I just think that once again we will be refused entry to the summer heatwave beach BBQ party and have to go home and watch it on the television with a microwaved hot dog instead

[carl1980]

Windy and overcast,18.c but doesn't feel like it

[Frost HoIIow]

Long way out but wow this is nuts. 25C uppers nudging into Devon. Roasting up here too.

 

[iand61]

11 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Long way out but wow this is nuts. 25C uppers nudging into Devon. Roasting up here too.

 

Aye if a week is a long time in politics then 10 days certainly is in model watching but I’d happily take a slightly cooler version of that and it’s probably what we’ll end up with.

the south can keep its 36c + temperatures and overbearing buildings with no air conditioning and I’m not keen on a heatwave when I’m at work but I certainly don’t want to miss out on a few days of warm sunshine while others bask in it either.

Given the bland conditions we’ve had so far this summer the dryness seems to have kept a low profile but the showers over the last week or so have done nothing to lessen what is potentially going to turn into a major water shortage.

According to UU, average reservoir levels in the Pennines are now below 60% capacity and with little signs of the usual summer deluges in the forecast, I’d suspect that restrictions may be brought in before too long, especially if the proper heat does finally arrive.

 

 

[iand61]

No surprise that tonight’s flypast by 3 typhoons which practically goes over my house has coincided with a return of the drizzle and low cloud.

I’ll probably hear them but doubt that I’ll see anything so best file along side all of the other rare events that the northwest weather has spoilt.

Edited July 6, 2022 by iand61
Spelling

[WillinGlossop]

46 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Aye if a week is a long time in politics then 10 days certainly is in model watching but I’d happily take a slightly cooler version of that and it’s probably what we’ll end up with.

the south can keep its 36c + temperatures and overbearing buildings with no air conditioning and I’m not keen on a heatwave when I’m at work but I certainly don’t want to miss out on a few days of warm sunshine while others bask in it either.

Given the bland conditions we’ve had so far this summer the dryness seems to have kept a low profile but the showers over the last week or so have done nothing to lessen what is potentially going to turn into a major water shortage.

According to UU, average reservoir levels in the Pennines are now below 60% capacity and with little signs of the usual summer deluges in the forecast, I’d suspect that restrictions may be brought in before too long, especially if the proper heat does finally arrive.

 

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if restrictions are brought in.. reservoirs are quite low, ground quite dry/hard…

it’s been quite dull summers day today… looking forward to going to Londonford for weekend for a bit of sun and warmth… meeting up with family from Costa Rica and nieces and nephews… 

It would be nice if week ahead as modelled occurs warm and sunny…. But we do need a few heavy thunderstorms/thundery downpours ideally overnight up here and down south.. 

[Weather-history]

Bit of a breeze and now drizzle 

[severe snowstorm]

Drizzle and rain on and off here during parts of this morning. Things did dry up by this afternoon, but it has stayed overcast all day and breezy too.

[severe snowstorm]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Long way out but wow this is nuts. 25C uppers nudging into Devon. Roasting up here too.

 

Yeah, we'd easily see temperatures well into the 30s celcius in parts of this region based on that chart, which does not fill me with joy! It's ok if there is a decent thundery breakdown at the end, but seems more often than not hot spells fizzle out with a whimper nowadays.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Long way out but wow this is nuts. 25C uppers nudging into Devon. Roasting up here too.

 

People are going to suffer next week if anything like that comes off. Not just us but our pets too. I don’t see anything good about some of these temperatures being shown.

Some parts of the country could find themselves in major health emergency territory.

Edited July 6, 2022 by CreweCold