Summer 2022 Chat

[Arctic Hare]

3 hours ago, Frigid said:

Latest GFS run shows 49c on the coast of France. That would beat the all time Europe record. The fact its this close to the UK is crazy..

After that 49 in Canada last year, who knows anymore? Seeing 42 or so in the UK, even on one ens member, is mad enough. 

[TheOgre]

Stunning period of weather coming up At least a week of sunshine and heat, which is unlike a normal one day wonder when if you blink you’ll miss it!

[Gray-Wolf]

I seem to recall, back 'int day, raging 'discussions' (in the then 'Environment' section of the board?) as to just 'when' the UK would see its first 40C

All the 'regular' climate change deniers (back then) had it occur beyond 2070 & were hissying at my "By the 2030's.....

Seems we were all wrong eh? (I'm sure the site has records of such discussions?)

[Airedalejoe]

Perfect summer day. 24c and sunny, highest of the year so far. Still a long way from reaching our average summer maximum high of 28c.

Some folk are getting a little carried away at the moment! Time will tell.

[Sweatyman]

42 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I seem to recall, back 'int day, raging 'discussions' (in the then 'Environment' section of the board?) as to just 'when' the UK would see its first 40C

All the 'regular' climate change deniers (back then) had it occur beyond 2070 & were hissying at my "By the 2030's.....

Seems we were all wrong eh? (I'm sure the site has records of such discussions?)

Hasn't happened yet!

[danm]

50 minutes ago, Airedalejoe said:

Perfect summer day. 24c and sunny, highest of the year so far. Still a long way from reaching our average summer maximum high of 28c.

Some folk are getting a little carried away at the moment! Time will tell.

Average summer maximum of 28°c? The average for London in July is 24°c. In County Durham it’s like to be about 20/21°c.

[Durham Weather]

8 minutes ago, danm said:

Average summer maximum of 28°c? The average for London in July is 24°c. In County Durham it’s like to be about 20/21°c.

I think you misunderstand. Each year has a maximum temperature. If it reached 28 degC in 2020, 30 degC in 2021 and 29 degC in 2022, then the average summer maximum would be 29 degC. 

[danm]

10 minutes ago, Durham Weather said:

I think you misunderstand. Each year has a maximum temperature. If it reached 28 degC in 2020, 30 degC in 2021 and 29 degC in 2022, then the average summer maximum would be 29 degC. 

Right, I see what you’re saying 

[sundog]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I seem to recall, back 'int day, raging 'discussions' (in the then 'Environment' section of the board?) as to just 'when' the UK would see its first 40C

All the 'regular' climate change deniers (back then) had it occur beyond 2070 & were hissying at my "By the 2030's.....

Seems we were all wrong eh? (I'm sure the site has records of such discussions?)

I hope the charts today don't come to fruiton. The temperatures shown for southern England are very disturbing.  Some might say we'll its only for a day or 2 but to me it shows the uncharted territory we are in or are entering. All bets are off if those temperatures happen. Some may revel in the possibility of new record breaking temperatures for their area but should really be hoping not to hit the 40s c for as long as possible .....

[Staffmoorlands]

2 hours ago, TheOgre said:

Stunning period of weather coming up At least a week of sunshine and heat, which is unlike a normal one day wonder when if you blink you’ll miss it!

Not for the north midlands including Derbyshire. After Monday clouds will increase and temperatures will return to normal to slightly above.

A chance of some warmer weather next weekend but that is a long way off

 

[Sunny76]

I think there’s a small chance there will be some storms after this week or hot weather.

May produced some thundery activity, so I’m fairly confident we will see some fireworks beyond next weekend, or perhaps this will be ongoing until the end of July.

[TheOgre]

3 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Not for the north midlands including Derbyshire. After Monday clouds will increase and temperatures will return to normal to slightly above.

A chance of some warmer weather next weekend but that is a long way off

 

Uh oh! Well I’m glad I’m going to be in Kent on Monday then!

[Arctic Hare]

It'll be interesting to see when/if the potential for really serious heat starts to get picked up by the mass media or in "guy in the pub" conversations. So far I've only really seen it discussed on weather sites and on a couple of forums which happen to have weather watchers on them. Haven't (yet?) seen it brought up spontaneously by someone who wasn't *already* interested in the weather.

But the 18z GFS tonight is going for 38 °C on Saturday, and into the 40s °C on Sunday as far north as the Humber! Sure it may be a huge outlier, but it's not the only run that's gone for insane numbers recently. That's next weekend, not miles out into deep FI. If, and it's a big big if obviously, the models keep throwing up these bonkers numbers, *surely* it has to start being noticed in the wider UK soon.

[Faronstream]

7 high-summer days so far this summer (25,0c as daytime maximum) and still no real change on the horizon for a pattern change in absolute northern europe, last summers 28 days with above 25c seems a long way off at the moment.

August right now looks warmer than average but not by much for most of northern europe, enough for maybe 5-7 days above 25c but would still land on only 12-14 days in total above 25c which is much below average for both periods of 1961-1990 and 1991-2020.

[kold weather]

Well the SE now into the very warm pattern which apart from maybe briefly on Wed/Thurs looks set to deliver well above average temps down here combined with not a drop of rain for at least the next 9-10 days.

Back in 2018 the grass went pretty much brown due to the heat, the only time I've seen the grass go quite that extreme (2006 did also feature some very dry looking grass mind you) and the grass is starting to head into the same pathway as those previously mentioned years. Given the lack of rain coming up and the heat (even if the extreme stuff never makes it) its going to be interesting to see how dark the grass goes. 

The surface lakes nearby will probably be gone this time next week given how much they have shrunk in recent weeks.

[seabreeze86]

Stunning morning in Costa del Redcar easily the best day of summer so far here just back from a morning on the beach with the kids 

Not a breath of wind on the sea front vary rare for this neck of the woods 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 minutes ago, legion_quest said:

There is no maximum temperature law, and with concerns over summer holidays already being too long and Covid having hurt children so much, I can't see it being advised as a norm.

Unfortunately I think your right! Unless metoffice put out a close school advisory like when that storm hit earlier in the year.

[qwertyK]

3 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Unfortunately I think your right! Unless metoffice put out a close school advisory like when that storm hit earlier in the year.

I would hope common sense would prevail and given its so close to the holidays and Year 11s and Year 13s are already out most will just send home. Or kids won't just show up. 

[kold weather]

This was posted in UKWW a short while ago, but nothing sums up N.Ireland's summer so far better than this image above.

Couldn't really make that up though, almost perfectly covering N.Ireland.

[SalopWatcher]

Noted the chat on what schools might do with this heat. My daughters secondary school up here in Shropshire where it’s not predicted to be highest already today sent an email out today informing kids to come in PE kit all this week. Pretty strict on uniform normally. 

Sensible 

[AnvilCrawlers]

On 10/07/2022 at 14:06, SalopWatcher said:

Noted the chat on what schools might do with this heat. My daughters secondary school up here in Shropshire where it’s not predicted to be highest already today sent an email out today informing kids to come in PE kit all this week. Pretty strict on uniform normally. 

Sensible 

PE kits are fine but you still need to protect the skin from the sun.

[Weather26]

18 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Not for the north midlands including Derbyshire. After Monday clouds will increase and temperatures will return to normal to slightly above.

A chance of some warmer weather next weekend but that is a long way off

 

And in Sheffield after we get to 31c tomorrow, that appears to be our peak as the heat next weekend only gets us to 29c next Sunday.

[A Face like Thunder]

I imagine there will be quite a bit of interest in tonight's BBC Countryfile weather forecast of the week ahead, c 8.15pm, BBC1, subject to Wimbledon. If it's Tomasz S this week and he appears in shorts and flip-flops, we'll know something's up!  

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

And in Sheffield after we get to 31c tomorrow, that appears to be our peak as the heat next weekend only gets us to 29c next Sunday.

Going by the current output I fully expect us to comfortably exceed 29°C next Sunday.

Apps will moderate at that range, as they did for this weekend initially.

[ChannelThunder]

It's a Cirrus-ly jellyfish-ey afternoon