Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[cheeky_monkey]

14 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

I would of thought the onset memory of guaranteed cold weather maybe. 

i would agree with this..cold weather and winter arrive much earlier than the UK ..dont forget we can get snow in September so it makes sense to be ready for that..also cold weather can arrive really quickly it can be +27c one week and the next be below freezing ..this isn't uncommon in early October

[summer blizzard]

55 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Smelling like a lovely (subjective) August is acoming.  Yellow fields galore for those further east though.

La Nina generally suggests a drier autumn, not particularly good news for those in dire need of rain.  Could be a repeat of 1976 of course when the heavens opened come September!

I wasn’t sure about this anecdotally so I decided to take a quick look at weak/moderate   Nina Autumns (months below 50mm or above 100m).

Our sample for years with La Niña at least weak by September are.. - I excluded first year La Niña due to the weaker atmospheric coupling.

1955

1971

1975

1999

2000

2011

2021

…

1955 - Average

1971 - Dry September, average otherwise

1975 - Wet September, Dry October, average November

1999 - Wet September, average October and November

2000 - Spectacularly wet throughout

2011 - Average

2021 - Average September, Wet October, Dry November

..

General bias is that we should probably expect wet to average early Autumn and then an average late Autumn. Dry is not as normal for a multi year Nina.

 

 

 

[Earthshine]

12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I wasn’t sure about this anecdotally so I decided to take a quick look at weak/moderate   Nina Autumns (months below 50mm or above 100m).

Our sample for years with La Niña at least weak by September are.. - I excluded first year La Niña due to the weaker atmospheric coupling.

1955

1971

1975

1999

2000

2011

2021

…

1955 - Average

1971 - Dry September, average otherwise

1975 - Wet September, Dry October, average November

1999 - Wet September, average October and November

2000 - Spectacularly wet throughout

2011 - Average

2021 - Average September, Wet October, Dry November

..

General bias is that we should probably expect wet to average early Autumn and then an average late Autumn. Dry is not as normal for a multi year Nina.

 

 

 

Thanks for this, very interesting!  So doesn't really look like we can draw many conclusions about the state of autumn based on ENSO.  I only assumed due to strengthening of Azores High during Nina years.

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone.

Just popped the dog out on the lawn and I must say that after all of the relentless sun and heat spikes so far this year, it’s so nice to feel drizzle, and see the hill fog rolling in… (Or not see as the case may be! ) 

Its marvellous… More please! 🌫🌧🌫

[Turnedoutniceagain]

August the 1st - time marches on.

 

At the end of this month we'll hopefully spot a few autumnal mists in low lying spots and hear the TV weather presenters talk about "the chance of a frost in the isolated glens of Scotland"

[MP-R]

On 29/07/2022 at 21:06, summer blizzard said:

 

…

1955 - Average

1971 - Dry September, average otherwise

1975 - Wet September, Dry October, average November

1999 - Wet September, average October and November

2000 - Spectacularly wet throughout

2011 - Average

2021 - Average September, Wet October, Dry November

..

General bias is that we should probably expect wet to average early Autumn and then an average late Autumn. Dry is not as normal for a multi year Nina.

 

 

 

2017 was quite a similar autumn to what you've stated too. Wet September, drier October and November. I think that was a Nina too?

[Don]

Latest Metoffice contingency forecast for August to October suggests the warmer than average conditions will continue, which is no surprise going by the latest GLOSEA 5 update.

Edited August 1, 2022 by Don

[summer blizzard]

33 minutes ago, MP-R said:

2017 was quite a similar autumn to what you've stated too. Wet September, drier October and November. I think that was a Nina too?

ASO was only -0.4 which is the hy it avoided my list but yes, it was wet then average to dry.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

4 hours ago, Don said:

Latest Metoffice contingency forecast for August to October suggests the warmer than average conditions will continue, which is no surprise going by the latest GLOSEA 5 update.

I hope that doesn't happen.

By around mid September I have lost interest in summer and begin longing for something more autumnal. It would be nice to have a more seasonal September/October which is something we are long overdue.

[Don]

1 minute ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I hope that doesn't happen.

By around mid September I have lost interest in summer and begin longing for something more autumnal. It would be nice to have a more seasonal September/October which is something we are long overdue.

I think it's likely the period as a whole will be warmer than average.  However, I hope September does not turn out to be well above average!

[Sunny76]

42 minutes ago, Don said:

I think it's likely the period as a whole will be warmer than average.  However, I hope September does not turn out to be well above average!

Maybe it would be good if temps remain milder into the winter this time, for one good reason.

Energy bills are going to be very high. And even on a 10-12c, my flat will feel really cold if I can’t heat it properly. If temps stay north of 16c until later in the year, it will help keep the bills down.

The likelihood of that happening though, is still quite slim, and the colder weather will sooner or later take hold.

[Don]

41 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Maybe it would be good if temps remain milder into the winter this time, for one good reason.

Energy bills are going to be very high. And even on a 10-12c, my flat will feel really cold if I can’t heat it properly. If temps stay north of 16c until later in the year, it will help keep the bills down.

The likelihood of that happening though, is still quite slim, and the colder weather will sooner or later take hold.

What will be will be. 

If we are to have a very dry autumn/winter/spring for example with serious water shortages, a wet summer next year would be good!

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Don said:

What will be will be. 

If we are to have a very dry autumn/winter/spring for example with serious water shortages, a wet summer next year would be good!

You could be right there. Maybe 2023-24 will be a couple of poorer summers with longer periods of rain. 

[Seasonal Trim]

29 days until Autumn is upon us. Between now and then I stand to lose 54mins at sunset. Once those pre 8pm sunsets kick in things really start to get going. 

Do I sound excited? I am, I soooo am!   

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I hope we get some nice vibrant autumn colours this year. Last autumn was terrible for colour.

[al78]

On 01/08/2022 at 18:50, Sunny76 said:

Maybe it would be good if temps remain milder into the winter this time, for one good reason.

Energy bills are going to be very high. And even on a 10-12c, my flat will feel really cold if I can’t heat it properly. If temps stay north of 16c until later in the year, it will help keep the bills down.

The likelihood of that happening though, is still quite slim, and the colder weather will sooner or later take hold.

Perhaps ideal is a mild wet winter without destructive windstorms. Mild to reduce energy use, and wet to recharge the reservoirs and ground water in those regions which have stolen a Mediterranean climate this summer.

[B87]

On 29/07/2022 at 21:06, summer blizzard said:

2011 - Average

All 3 autumn months were warmer and drier than average in 2011. A sunny September and October with a dull November.

[summer blizzard]

4 hours ago, B87 said:

All 3 autumn months were warmer and drier than average in 2011. A sunny September and October with a dull November.

I was using 50mm and 100mm as simplistic indicators. Obviously there's room either side of the average before those points.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 hours ago, Seasonal Trim said:

29 days until Autumn is upon us. Between now and then I stand to lose 54mins at sunset. Once those pre 8pm sunsets kick in things really start to get going. 

Do I sound excited? I am, I soooo am!   

My birthday though I'd class as summer, is always a holiday and never a school day, (summer hols)

[Don]

6 hours ago, al78 said:

Perhaps ideal is a mild wet winter without destructive windstorms. Mild to reduce energy use, and wet to recharge the reservoirs and ground water in those regions which have stolen a Mediterranean climate this summer.

Will probably be the case anyway as lets face it, mild and wet winters are common!  However, I hope it stays friendly in here no matter what happens!!

[Emz by the Thames]

Well you autumn rampers, the announcement of the Strictly contestants starts today...and the pumpkins at my allotment are turning orange.

Strange thing from my youth which I've never forgotten - I used to come back from Reading Festival and the sunlight had noticeably changed - the angle of the light and shadows...the world looked a little different. And a night time chill in the air for the first time in months. Camping out in late August, the nights are surprisingly chilly.

For once, I'm hoping for a rainy autumn for obvious reasons. I miss the sound of rain.

[Seasonal Trim]

Not feeling this warm up coming next week. Praying for rain now in my area. Autumn can't come soon enough!

[cheeky_monkey]

On 03/08/2022 at 07:33, Seasonal Trim said:

29 days until Autumn is upon us. Between now and then I stand to lose 54mins at sunset. Once those pre 8pm sunsets kick in things really start to get going. 

Do I sound excited? I am, I soooo am!   

Autumn starts here next week

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Wheat/barley harvest's finished where I live and the bales are all wrapped and away for the winter. Dark at 9:10 last night, cherry vodka done for Christmas and the damson gin's getting sorted this weekend. Apples (pink lady) are delicious and plentiful, blackberries are still green but also plentiful.

Up early this morning (05:30) and was surprised to see a single figure temp' on my weather station thingy......

[stainesbloke]

On 04/08/2022 at 10:58, Team Squirrel said:

Well you autumn rampers, the announcement of the Strictly contestants starts today...and the pumpkins at my allotment are turning orange.

Strange thing from my youth which I've never forgotten - I used to come back from Reading Festival and the sunlight had noticeably changed - the angle of the light and shadows...the world looked a little different. And a night time chill in the air for the first time in months. Camping out in late August, the nights are surprisingly chilly.

For once, I'm hoping for a rainy autumn for obvious reasons. I miss the sound of rain.

Used to attend the Rewind 80’s Festival near Henley on Thames, it was and is still held during the 3rd weekend in August. Nights were always chilly Even if the days were hot (didn’t happen often).

Looking forward to Strictly! I like autumn and early winter, up to New Year. We definitely need a wetter season in the southern half of the UK. Hopefully some nice autumn sunshine too with lots of mists, fogs, and eventually frosts, overnight.