Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[sundog]

1 minute ago, Don said:

It does a bit doesn't it?!  However, very early days.

Yes,just seems to be month after month of above average  temperatures. Anyone who wants a decent winter, we need to break out of this above average pattern. 

In my own location while daytime temps have fallen back ,still above average  overall for the first week of Sept. The gfs 06z does show it cooling down around mid month but that's a bit away yet and could if course easily change.

[Don]

14 minutes ago, sundog said:

Yes,just seems to be month after month of above average  temperatures. Anyone who wants a decent winter, we need to break out of this above average pattern. 

It can happen like it did in 1995, but would want to break out of this current pattern soon!

[cheese]

Max/min temps so far here for September:

23/14

23/14

24/16

24/15

25/15

Continuing where August left off. 

Edited September 5, 2022 by cheese

[LetItSnow!]

2 hours ago, Don said:

It can happen like it did in 1995, but would want to break out of this current pattern soon!

to be fair, the persistent warm anomalies that year continued right up until november-then suddenly turned very cold. also, long spells of exceptionally warm weather tend to break around a year into it at the latest, so i wouldn't be too anxious yet. i remember thinking in 2020 about whether the run of warmer than average months would spell danger for the winter-but then it turned out decent, especially for scotland.

[damianslaw]

10 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I distinctly remember Tuesday 30th August 1983, the penultimate day of the summer and penultimate day of the fine spell. A day of low humidity and deep blue skies. I distinctly hearing "Red Red Wine" replacing "Give It Up" at number one on the radio in the afternoon; I think in those days charts were announced on Tuesday so that would figure. I've also checked the old chart listings and that was indeed the week when this happened.

Regarding the songs you quote, New Song came out in the autumn but the other two were around in August.

Wed 31st was the day of the breakdown. More humid and hazier than the 30th and Ac Cast started building up in the afternoon (this was Cheshire, not down south). After dark thundery rain arrived with one or two rumbles of thunder. Then as I've mentioned about four days of disturbed, windy weather.

The warm sunny spell of late Sep 1983 developed on, I think, Thursday 22nd following a particularly potent southerly-tracking low the previous day which ended the wet spell. The initial two days were a bit of a surprise (they weren't originally forecast to be that special) then a cold front produced some isolated thundery activity (evening of 23rd I think), the weekend was slightly cloudy but the Monday, when we went on a school trip, was notably sunny and warm. The sunny warm weather was forecast to continue until the end of the month but in the event, as often happens beyond the equinox, cloud started to build up within the high and I think there was also a day or two of persistent fog. Still warm or very warm, though.

September 1994 was a bit similar to 1983 in the sense it was mostly dull and wet (but with some interesting thundery activity, which 1983 rather lacked) before switching to settled at much the same time. The settled spell of 1994 was almost completely cloudy, though - but early Oct produced some very sunny conditions for a couple of weeks.

You have very good memories, I tend to remember 'field trip' days and particular PE lessons outside more than many school days, makes sense I guess as you are outside experiencing the conditions more. 

[Frost HoIIow]

34 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

to be fair, the persistent warm anomalies that year continued right up until november-then suddenly turned very cold. also, long spells of exceptionally warm weather tend to break around a year into it at the latest, so i wouldn't be too anxious yet. i remember thinking in 2020 about whether the run of warmer than average months would spell danger for the winter-but then it turned out decent, especially for scotland.

2020-21 wasn't too shabby here too. Pretty cold at times and had about 5 separate snow coverings, none were particularly heavy though (6 inches+) but it was far better than last winter's measly dusting one morning! odd thing was we had 4 inches fall one day at the end of November but very little during the actual winter. Can't think of many occurrences like that here.

[Cheshire Freeze]

There is a very very strong historic signal for a cold spell of some sort in December with the current set up (La Nina etc).

The latest EC seasonal goes along with that in a broad brush sense

November looks potentially colder than average too.

CFS hints at a Scandinavian trough

Edited September 5, 2022 by CreweCold

[Don]

55 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

to be fair, the persistent warm anomalies that year continued right up until november-then suddenly turned very cold. also, long spells of exceptionally warm weather tend to break around a year into it at the latest, so i wouldn't be too anxious yet. i remember thinking in 2020 about whether the run of warmer than average months would spell danger for the winter-but then it turned out decent, especially for scotland.

True, although September 1995 was only average temperature wise for the time and below average by today's standard.  October was very warm and dry - a classic 'Indian summer'!  I remember November having some cold frosty days, but was predominately mild.  However, the pattern broke with a vengeance on December 4th!

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is a very very strong historic signal for a cold spell of some sort in December with the current set up (La Nina etc).

The latest EC seasonal goes along with that in a broad brush sense

Yes, as I said in the ENSO thread, I'm relieved to see this update!

Edited September 5, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

to be fair, the persistent warm anomalies that year continued right up until november-then suddenly turned very cold. also, long spells of exceptionally warm weather tend to break around a year into it at the latest, so i wouldn't be too anxious yet. i remember thinking in 2020 about whether the run of warmer than average months would spell danger for the winter-but then it turned out decent, especially for scotland.

The last time we had such a lengthy period of anomalous warmth was Summer 06 through to May 07 from memory, correct if wrong. The period May 07- Sept 07 was nearer average but it wasn't until the following summer we saw a shift to more sustained periods of average or cooler conditions..

 

2 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

2020-21 wasn't too shabby here too. Pretty cold at times and had about 5 separate snow coverings, none were particularly heavy though (6 inches+) but it was far better than last winter's measly dusting one morning! odd thing was we had 4 inches fall one day at the end of November but very little during the actual winter. Can't think of many occurrences like that here.

2019 brought our coldest minima of the season on 1st December, the rest of the winter was devoid of much frost - equally snowless year.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

There is a very very strong historic signal for a cold spell of some sort in December with the current set up (La Nina etc).

The latest EC seasonal goes along with that in a broad brush sense

November looks potentially colder than average too.

CFS hints at a Scandinavian trough

Long time since we had a Nov - Dec cold combo, 2010 I think. Prior to that 1996. Interesting to note both years were very dry, our driest two years since this one (so far), with very sluggish jetstreams and high pressure ruling the roost...

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Some biblical rainfall our there at the moment. It's certainly very welcome.

 

[Sunny76]

Can hear some distant thunder and some flashes of lightning now. 
 

Think it’s moving up from the West.

Getting louder now. 

[Don]

All quiet here after earlier torrential rain and rumbles of thunder.

[danm]

We now enter my least favourite time of year from a weather perspective. I love heat and I love cold and snow - I really should live in a continental climate! To top it off, I hate wind and rain.

Autumn is the time of year where you are least likely to get either of the two weather types I love and most likely to get the weather type I hate. 

To be fair, September often has good weather (not this week though), and I do like cold, crisp, sunny days which you can get in Autumn too. 

However, this time of year for me is dull, so after we hopefully still get some more early Autumn warmth, roll on winter!

[stainesbloke]

Have a strong feeling that we will see some very intense and destructive Atlantic storms later in autumn and then a very cold spell to end the year. I’m going for a cold winter, in general. 

[Froze were the Days]

68th day running we've hit at least 21c/70f in my location - ridiculous! 22.8c currently and sunny.

[Coldilocks]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

68th day running we've hit at least 21c/70f in my location - ridiculous! 22.8c currently and sunny.

Careful, many people on here consider that blasphemy

[cheeky_monkey]

finally the summer heat left us today..had mid 30s most of last week and over the weekend ..much more pleasant 18c today

[Don]

4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

finally the summer heat left us today..had mid 30s most of last week and over the weekend ..much more pleasant 18c today

Is it likely to return?

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Is it likely to return?

looking at the charts looks unlikely..although im sure we will have a cpl weeks of 20-25c sunny weather between now and mid October

[damianslaw]

12 hours ago, danm said:

We now enter my least favourite time of year from a weather perspective. I love heat and I love cold and snow - I really should live in a continental climate! To top it off, I hate wind and rain.

Autumn is the time of year where you are least likely to get either of the two weather types I love and most likely to get the weather type I hate. 

To be fair, September often has good weather (not this week though), and I do like cold, crisp, sunny days which you can get in Autumn too. 

However, this time of year for me is dull, so after we hopefully still get some more early Autumn warmth, roll on winter!

I've long said September is our most benign clement pleasant month, but for any weather enthusiasts who like extremes it often makes for watching paint dry type conditions. 

[MP-R]

33 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I've long said September is our most benign clement pleasant month, but for any weather enthusiasts who like extremes it often makes for watching paint dry type conditions. 

Yet not in this part of the world… as yesterday once again demonstrated. Can’t think of many of these fabled boring Septembers. 
 

If anything I’d say August is many times more boring. This year an exception obviously.

[danm]

45 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I've long said September is our most benign clement pleasant month, but for any weather enthusiasts who like extremes it often makes for watching paint dry type conditions. 

I usually like September as we often still get warm and sunny weather. It’s the wet and windy weather later in Autumn that I hate.

[damianslaw]

17 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Yet not in this part of the world… as yesterday once again demonstrated. Can’t think of many of these fabled boring Septembers. 
 

If anything I’d say August is many times more boring. This year an exception obviously.

Many recent Septembers have by and large been settled quiet months with high pressure never too far away, at least the first two thirds. This year admittedly things are starting on a veey different note.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I have a feeling this September will end up being a warmer version of September 2008. 

An unsettled first half followed by a quiet and settled second half.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91