Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[stainesbloke]

6 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

As much as I don't like it it's their time. Plus we really, really need the rain.

Yes, have enjoyed another great summer so I don’t feel so anxious about the change of season. Rain is needed. As long as autumn isn’t a constant, dreary cloud fest and we get a decent variety of weather types, all good  

[*Stormforce~beka*]

21 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, have enjoyed another great summer so I don’t feel so anxious about the change of season. Rain is needed. As long as autumn isn’t a constant, dreary cloud fest and we get a decent variety of weather types, all good  

Pretty much how I feel!

[Sunny76]

10 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I've resisted all summer coming in here. There was no way I was stucking my head in here when this popped up half way through bleeding summmer! Oh no! I was going to enjoy it thanks not be dragged down by what was to come! Any way it's the 1st of September so here I am. Right now I feel relatively ok despite suffering SAD. We have had an amazing summer and I do feel recharged. Dunno how long that'll last but we'll see lol. I am looking forward to candles, falling pretty leaves, Autumn decorations and nice stews and hot puddings! Need the home comforts to get through!

I started feeling it a couple of weeks ago. The declining late afternoon light with hte sun in the wrong place is when it starts hitting me.

It does start to creep in, if only very subtly in mid august, but I tend to not notice it if it’s still hot outside like this summer. But, there was no getting away from it once we moved past the 21st of August, and by September 1st it feels like summer is now on its last legs. Definitely feels more like late summer and early autumn mixed together now.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Noticeable drop off in temps today and woken up at 5am by torrential rain. Hello Autumn - I've missed you

[HafrenLMP1]

I brought the milk at about 7 o'clock this morning - and it was sunny, but it's undoubtedly late summer/early autumn.......

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone. 
A day late in posting this, but yesterday we had a lovely misty morning to start autumn off for another year. 

[StretfordEnd1996]

17 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Moving back on to general chat, what do people think this autumn is actually going to be like, overall (trying not to be pessimistically influenced too much by the coming week, which I myself admittedly was when I first saw the latest model runs!)

The only thing I am fairly certain about is that it is likely to be mild/warm overall, as since 1983, if I remember right, every instance of a warm summer has been followed by an autumn which has been mild or warm overall. However some of them were rather dull and damp so (sadly IMO) we can't count on it being mostly settled or sunny.

Pure conjecture, but I'd guess September will break the trend of recent years and have a wet first half but a progressively more settled second half. Often when September starts wet, the second half is drier, relatively speaking. Perhaps the best weather an "Indian Summer" of warm (21+) days but cool nights, and much sunshine, in the last week of the month.

Gut feeling on October is something more settled, if only because we have had a run of more unsettled Octobers - particularly the first half. A notably sunny first week, then more variable sunshine but still dry. Warm throughout the month. Stormy towards the end of the month perhaps.

November I'm thinking, after a dry, settled one last year, mild, dull and wet with colder foggy interludes but this is again just gut feeling.

As for winter I'm thinking (gut feeling again!) of something a bit along the lines of 2003/04. It's been really quite a long while since we've had a December with any form of sustained frosty anticyclonic weather, so I'm thinking this year might be it (albeit with some wet/windy too, as per that year). January mild, windy and wet but perhaps briefly cold and snowy (as it's now 3 years since the last wet and windy Jan), and February dry and anticyclonic (again, it's been a while).

Anyone got any more scientific, or knowledgable, thoughts on the season?

I think you're right about the run of mild Autumns following milder than average Summers!

Below I've noted down all Summers with a CET of over +1.0 above the 61-90 average. I've then stated the CET of the Autumn that follows and how that differs from the same 30 year average for the Autumn CET.

1983 - 10.4 (+0.2)
1984 - 10.8 (+0.6)
1989 - 10.7 (+0.5)
1995 - 11.3 (+1.1)
2003 - 10.3 (+0.1)
2005 - 11.5 (+1.3)
2006 - 12.6 (+2.4)
2013 - 10.7 (+0.5)
2016 - 10.8 (+0.6)
2017 - 10.9 (+0.7)
2018 - 10.7 (+0.5)
2019 - 10.1 (-0.1)
2020 - 11.0 (+0.8)
2021 - 11.7 (+1.5) 

^Forgive me if I've missed a few Summers in this list

I've put "ALL" cooler than average Autumns following milder than averages Summers in bold. Okay - you missed one. 2019. Not that it was a particularly big attempt at a cold Autumn though!  

If I've time later I'll go through the precipitation totals too -  

EDIT - if you compare to the 81-10 average a handful are cooler than this average but by literally just 0.1-0.5'C or so, so nothing major

Edited September 2, 2022 by StretfordEnd1996

[summer blizzard]

2019 probably didn't have many cool synoptics as opposed to just a continued train of low pressure bringing rain at a relatively south latitude (i.e. supressing temperatures).

[Froze were the Days]

Ben Rich talking more drivel on the BBC1 1:30 forecast saying this weekend will feel more 'autumnal' - really!?! because some areas to the west will be caught under some persistent rain and breezy, but hey lets forget about mentioning the temperatures! Here the in the south east summer just rolls on...here looks continuing dry and warm with temps up to 25c.

The system bringing this more unsettled weather for the west looks more associated with a tropical storm (if it was in warmer waters) than anything autumnal from the Atlantic...outlook into the foreseeable, maybe some rain getting into the south/southeast next week but then possible a pressure rise from the south by D10 (again) and not surprisingly STILL warmer than average, when will this end?.

[RJBingham]

Nice day again, mid 20s, bit of sunshine, windows wide open, lovely. 

[damianslaw]

Most likely a warmer than average Autumn given we are in a perpetual warm phase it seems at present. Not sure about rainfall..perhaps close to average with yet again NW- SE divide in evidence, wet to the NW. Mind some useful rain at times in the SE. 

Could be some chilly anticyclonic weather at times especially November and perhaps some early wintry weather as well.

October could produce some notable warmth if we tap into southerly airstream... but could be followed with cold switcharounds.

Covering all bases here! Just like a met office forecast!

Edited September 2, 2022 by damianslaw

[cheeky_monkey]

summer just keeps rolling on here..32c today ..36c tomorrow 

[The PIT]

North sea rubbish this morning which took it's time to burn off. Afternoon nice enough and the coming breakdown looks fairly benign here. Staying average to warm generally. I don't think I'll be clocking up large rainfall amounts before Wednesday.

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, RJBingham said:

Nice day again, mid 20s, bit of sunshine, windows wide open, lovely. 

Yes, nice enough in London today, too. 24°C with a fair amount of cloud but some sunshine too

[Mark Smithy]

On 01/09/2022 at 17:14, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Probably convergence zones leading to more showers along the coast. These precip. charts are never gospel either way 

I was down in the west country today and it absolutely chucked down. Torrential tropical rain. 

And that wasn't really even supposed to happen today. So I'll take the 'rain, wot rain?' posts with a pinch of salt. For now ...   

[Mapantz]

Not a bad day here, again. Sunny since lunchtime, and a temp of over 25°C. The last 10 days have been pretty darn good! Not wall to wall sunshine, but still plenty of it.

Not much rain in the forecast over the coming days, unless the showers make a beeline for this location. To be fair, the Met Office forecasts for here over the last 3 or 4 days haven't shown much rain.

[Don]

6 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, nice enough in London today, too. 24°C with a fair amount of cloud but some sunshine too

Similar up here!

[Wold Topper]

Just now, Don said:

Similar up here!

Similar up here! Tad cooler perhaps

[Snowy L]

 Don't know what happened to the rainfest, looking like a decent weekend now. Brilliant news.

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

 Don't know what happened to the rainfest, looking like a decent weekend now. Brilliant news.

Shame I was looking forward to it 

6 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Not a bad day here, again. Sunny since lunchtime, and a temp of over 25°C. The last 10 days have been pretty darn good! Not wall to wall sunshine, but still plenty of it.

Not much rain in the forecast over the coming days, unless the showers make a beeline for this location. To be fair, the Met Office forecasts for here over the last 3 or 4 days haven't shown much rain.

Agreed. The outlook remains dry but not chilly!  

[Summer8906]

22 hours ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I think you're right about the run of mild Autumns following milder than average Summers!

Below I've noted down all Summers with a CET of over +1.0 above the 61-90 average. I've then stated the CET of the Autumn that follows and how that differs from the same 30 year average for the Autumn CET.

1983 - 10.4 (+0.2)
1984 - 10.8 (+0.6)
1989 - 10.7 (+0.5)
1995 - 11.3 (+1.1)
2003 - 10.3 (+0.1)
2005 - 11.5 (+1.3)
2006 - 12.6 (+2.4)
2013 - 10.7 (+0.5)
2016 - 10.8 (+0.6)
2017 - 10.9 (+0.7)
2018 - 10.7 (+0.5)
2019 - 10.1 (-0.1)
2020 - 11.0 (+0.8)
2021 - 11.7 (+1.5) 

^Forgive me if I've missed a few Summers in this list

I've put "ALL" cooler than average Autumns following milder than averages Summers in bold. Okay - you missed one. 2019. Not that it was a particularly big attempt at a cold Autumn though!  

But I wouldn't call 2019 a particularly warm summer anyhow. One which I suspect was distorted by one or two brief extreme heatwaves as it was generally a dull, damp and rather cool summer in between the heatwaves. Of these I would similarly discount 2017, 2020 and 2021 as these were similarly dull, damp and often cool with short extreme warm spells which distorted the average.

Thinking more of those summers which had prolonged spells of fine warm weather, specifically 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990 (not present on your list), 1994 (likewise), 1995, 2003, 2006 and 2018.

Edited September 3, 2022 by Summer8906

[KTtom]

7 hours ago, Snowy L said:

 Don't know what happened to the rainfest, looking like a decent weekend now. Brilliant news.

Come to West Wales ! To be fair it was always looking like early next week before the rain pushes east.

Edited September 3, 2022 by KTtom

[Summer8906]

19 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Ben Rich talking more drivel on the BBC1 1:30 forecast saying this weekend will feel more 'autumnal' - really!?! because some areas to the west will be caught under some persistent rain and breezy, but hey lets forget about mentioning the temperatures! Here the in the south east summer just rolls on...here looks continuing dry and warm with temps up to 25c.

The system bringing this more unsettled weather for the west looks more associated with a tropical storm (if it was in warmer waters) than anything autumnal from the Atlantic...outlook into the foreseeable, maybe some rain getting into the south/southeast next week but then possible a pressure rise from the south by D10 (again) and not surprisingly STILL warmer than average, when will this end?.

But will it be warmer than average by day across wide areas of the country? Looking at the models I rather suspect maxima stuck around 19C for the next week (and perhaps the following week too, looking at the latest GFS and ECM 00Z runs) for much of southern England away from the usual London and East Anglia hotspots. Sub-20C maxima accompanied by damp southwesterlies are firmly autumnal to me, however warm the nights may be.

As someone who, to be quite honest, dislikes the gloominess and damp of the darker months of the year (notably late Oct to early Feb), I'd much prefer a more settled outlook and more time to enjoy sunshine and daytime warmth while the days are still reasonably long. Latest model runs don't fill me with any enthusiasm for the next week to 10 days, it might be warm by the CET but what good is a 17C mean temp, say, if it's comprised of 19C max, 15C min? Would much prefer something like 24C max, 10C min !

Still, if September starts on a bad note, things can improve - 2008 is an excellent example, a year in which October was also generally fine and warm (and when it wasn't, it was interestingly cold!). Of course we can get a 1976 or 2000 too, so who knows. But this winter may be tricky for non-weather-related reasons, so let's keep the sunshine and daytime warmth going for a while yet!

Edited September 3, 2022 by Summer8906

[A Face like Thunder]

2 hours ago, KTtom said:

Come to West Wales ! To be fair it was always looking like early next week before the rain pushes east.

... or to the N Yorkshire coast. I'm told it rained all night and is damp and drizzly this morning!

[cyclonic happiness]

10 hours ago, Snowy L said:

 Don't know what happened to the rainfest, looking like a decent weekend now. Brilliant news.

Yes, it really is sad isn't it, The Atlantic just doesn't have enough umph to push weather systems over us like they're supposed to.

And with the lack of a decent jet stream in this area (well, at least until the end of the model runs, let's see if that comes off?  ), not much will change.

And it's so weird to see low pressures stationary or ex-hurricanes just wandering about the Atlantic like they're lost or something, the whole of this Summer has just been weird and boring, maybe it's the Tonga eruption which has thrown the world's weather out of kilter, they say it ejected sso much water vapour and elements into the stratosphere, it's bound to have done something? 

 

Tonga's volcano sent tons of water into the stratosphere. That could warm the Earth

WWW.NPR.ORG

---

"We've never seen anything like it," said atmospheric scientist Luis Millán, who works at NASA. The vapor sent skyward by the eruption will likely stay in the stratosphere for years.

 

Edited September 3, 2022 by cyclonic happiness