Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, KTtom said:

Come to West Wales ! To be fair it was always looking like early next week before the rain pushes east.

No it wasn't- quite a few of you in the model discussion were convinced this weekend was going to be wet and cool only a few days back. A few of us were told we were wrong when we suggested this weekend would probably end up warm with showers at worst for most of the country.

This is quote from last Sunday from a certain member who confronted me when I said the warmth was going to continue. I'm sure you can all guess who I mean.

"That's not really what the 6z GFS says though. A decidedly cloudy, often wet and pretty cool run throughout. It's definitely not a warm run.

Not saying it's right, just what the model shows. And as it's in accord with the others I'm not sure I'd bet against.

Looks like a pretty unsettled picture in early September."

The same member also suggested this weekend would be chilly as the Met Office were showing mid to high teens for central areas at the time. Another member then suggested the reason for these supposed cool temps was because 'the low was dropping down from the north'- which makes no sense as the positioning of the low was always going to mean a southerly/southeasterly flow and warm air from the south. 

 

Edited September 3, 2022 by Scorcher

[Row w]

Feeling rather humid out there at the moment, got that very thundery feel to it and also looking so too, I know there were some storms forecast for this weekend so hopefully they'll be some activity before the season closes for the year (apologies if this should be in the convective discussion thread)

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

No it wasn't- quite a few of you in the model discussion were convinced this weekend was going to be wet and cool only a few days back. A few of us were told we were wrong when we suggested this weekend would probably end up warm with showers at worst for most of the country.

This is quote from last Sunday from a certain member who confronted me when I said the warmth was going to continue. I'm sure you can all guess who I mean.

"That's not really what the 6z GFS says though. A decidedly cloudy, often wet and pretty cool run throughout. It's definitely not a warm run.

Not saying it's right, just what the model shows. And as it's in accord with the others I'm not sure I'd bet against.

Looks like a pretty unsettled picture in early September."

The same member also suggested this weekend would be chilly as the Met Office were showing mid to high teens for central areas at the time. Another member then suggested the reason for these supposed cool temps was because 'the low was dropping down from the north'- which makes no sense as the positioning of the low was always going to mean a southerly/southeasterly flow and warm air from the south. 

 

Most of the posts ive read have only pointed to the unsettled nature from this weekend, some including yourself were denying the unsettled theme would even evolve and just kept harping on about temperatures, so please dont go berrating others when predictions dont come to fruition if indeed they dont. Its a model discussion thread not a 'you must agree with Scortcher thread!' Its 18 degrees, windy and raining here, some may interprate that as cool and wet.  

Edited September 3, 2022 by KTtom

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Most of the posts ive read have only pointed to the unsettled nature from this weekend, some including yourself were denying the unsettled theme would even evolve and just kept harping on about temperatures, so please dont go berrating others when predictions dont come to fruition if indeed they dont. Its a model discussion thread not a 'you must agree with Scortcher thread!' Its 18 degrees and raining here, some may interprate that as cool and wet.  

To be fair, you and several others were pushing for an unsettled and cool bank holiday weekend.. you were challenged on that, but you ignored it.

Quote

Even your favorite gfs has uppers below 10 for next weekend, longer nights and dew settling in, trust me it will feel very different from what we have become accustomed to!

What's good for the goose is good for the gander!

[KTtom]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

To be fair, you and several others were pushing for an unsettled and cool bank holiday weekend.. you were challenged on that, but you ignored it.

What's good for the goose is good for the gander!

...and? It does feel different! Its windy and wet! 

Edited September 3, 2022 by KTtom

[Mapantz]

Just now, KTtom said:

...and? It does feel different!

The bank holiday didn't end up cool, or unsettled..

[KTtom]

Well here it was cool, certainly not unsettled. But sat outside the pub with a jumper on last Friday it certainly FELT different, no where in that post you quoted does it mention unsettled, so my post was correct, thanks for spending your saturday afternoon looking for it.

Edited September 3, 2022 by KTtom

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

 thanks for spending your saturday afternoon looking for it.

That's what bookmarks are for.

[Wimbledon88]

We were always lead to believe by the climate change goblins that Atlantic storms would be more ferocious due to a 'warming ocean'. Huge area of low pressure to our west now giving nothing but a bit of damp drizzle.

No doubt they'll put some of spin on it to say its as a result of global waaaaming. 

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Wimbledon88 said:

We were always lead to believe by the climate change goblins that Atlantic storms would be more ferocious due to a 'warming ocean'. Huge area of low pressure to our west now giving nothing but a bit of damp drizzle.

No doubt they'll put some of spin on it to say its as a result of global waaaaming. 

Its an isolated event.

Do you not remember Storm Eunice earlier this year, or Storm Franklin which was quite damaging as well if I remember correctly. I have no idea of any statistics or anything though and those could well be isolated events. Also note that this was only meant to be talking about Hurricanes (I would think) because the heat aids more to thunderstorm development than it would to your typically Atlantic low pressure system development. In recent years Atlantic Hurricane seasons have broken record after record and whilst that may be due to outside factors, surely you have to admit some kind of climate change has to be involved as well.

[mb018538]

Another warm early autumn day. 25c and sunny. Could even see 27c again on Monday before it turns properly unsettled.

[sundog]

14c and raining here. Hello autumn

[Froze were the Days]

5 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

But will it be warmer than average by day across wide areas of the country?

Well yes...if you're not under any cloud/rain, after all we are in a cyclonic southerly...looking at the latest radar very little rainfall other than if you live out in Irish Sea/Cornwall.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

We were always lead to believe by the climate change goblins that Atlantic storms would be more ferocious due to a 'warming ocean'. Huge area of low pressure to our west now giving nothing but a bit of damp drizzle.

No doubt they'll put some of spin on it to say its as a result of global waaaaming. 

Would they be the same 'goblins' who dared to suggest that Blighty would soon be seeing 40C+ daytime maxima?

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

But I wouldn't call 2019 a particularly warm summer anyhow. One which I suspect was distorted by one or two brief extreme heatwaves as it was generally a dull, damp and rather cool summer in between the heatwaves. Of these I would similarly discount 2017, 2020 and 2021 as these were similarly dull, damp and often cool with short extreme warm spells which distorted the average.

Thinking more of those summers which had prolonged spells of fine warm weather, specifically 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990 (not present on your list), 1994 (likewise), 1995, 2003, 2006 and 2018.

1994 was much better than 2019,20 or 21, and much better in my book than any summer since 2015 onwards( apart from 2018 and 2022).

1994 had a mixed August, and a cool first half of June, but September was rather cool and dull and blows the whole warm September leads to a mild winter theory. Winter 94/95 followed a cool September, and it was one of the mildest winters on record.

1983 had warm weather continue into September, while in 1984 the warm or hot weather ended in early September. 

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

But I wouldn't call 2019 a particularly warm summer anyhow. One which I suspect was distorted by one or two brief extreme heatwaves as it was generally a dull, damp and rather cool summer in between the heatwaves. Of these I would similarly discount 2017, 2020 and 2021 as these were similarly dull, damp and often cool with short extreme warm spells which distorted the average.

Thinking more of those summers which had prolonged spells of fine warm weather, specifically 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990 (not present on your list), 1994 (likewise), 1995, 2003, 2006 and 2018.

All those summers you mentioned were proper summers, not the nonsense like 2019 and 20 with a week or so of very hot weather, sandwiched between weeks of dull cool weather.

3 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Its an isolated event.

Do you not remember Storm Eunice earlier this year, or Storm Franklin which was quite damaging as well if I remember correctly. I have no idea of any statistics or anything though and those could well be isolated events. Also note that this was only meant to be talking about Hurricanes (I would think) because the heat aids more to thunderstorm development than it would to your typically Atlantic low pressure system development. In recent years Atlantic Hurricane seasons have broken record after record and whilst that may be due to outside factors, surely you have to admit some kind of climate change has to be involved as well.

The only storm I remember is the Great Storm of October 1987. Anything since then has been pretty forgettable.

Edited September 3, 2022 by Sunny76

[stainesbloke]

Back in Prague late on Friday and it’s a cracking weekend, weather wise. Sunny, light winds and temperatures around 23°C. Perfect  

[Summer8906]

6 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Back in Prague late on Friday and it’s a cracking weekend, weather wise. Sunny, light winds and temperatures around 23°C. Perfect  

Proper September weather. If only it could be like that in the UK for the foreseeable, I'd be happy.

[Summer8906]

17 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

1994 was much better than 2019,20 or 21,

Completely agree, and by a huge margin. 1994 had fine weather throughout most of June (developing around the 10th or so) and July, with only short breaks. August was more changeable but still warm and occasionally sunny for the first 10 days or so.

17 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

and much better in my book than any summer since 2015 onwards( apart from 2018 and 2022).

Completely agree again.

17 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

1994 had a mixed August, and a cool first half of June, but September was rather cool and dull and blows the whole warm September leads to a mild winter theory. Winter 94/95 followed a cool September, and it was one of the mildest winters on record.

1983 had warm weather continue into September,

1983 was one I remember well as I started collecting forecasts from the paper that year. The summer ended abruptly overnight Aug 31/Sep 1 (literally) and the initial weekend (same dates as this year) was if I remember very windy for so early in the season. Then a short fine spell of three days, before becoming dull, wet and relatively cool until late in the month. However the last 9 days or so were fine and very warm, and sunny at times.

17 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

while in 1984 the warm or hot weather ended in early September. 

I have surprisingly few memories of September 1984 but I think dull, cool, frequent mostly light rain, and non-descript sums it up. Indeed autumn 1984 could be considered a very "boring" season for weather being persistently dull, cool in Sep, and mild in Oct/Nov. Thankfully it was preceded and followed by one of the best summers, and one of the best winters, of my lifetime.

Edited September 4, 2022 by Summer8906

[Paul]

The Netweather long range forecast for Autumn is now available - written by @Nick F

Long Range Weather Forecast - Autumn 2022 | Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Completely agree, and by a huge margin. 1994 had fine weather throughout most of June (developing around the 10th or so) and July, with only short breaks. August was more changeable but still warm and occasionally sunny for the first 10 days or so.

Completely agree again.

1983 was one I remember well as I started collecting forecasts from the paper that year. The summer ended abruptly overnight Aug 31/Sep 1 (literally) and the initial weekend (same dates as this year) was if I remember very windy for so early in the season. Then a short fine spell of three days, before becoming dull, wet and relatively cool until late in the month. However the last 9 days or so were fine and very warm, and sunny at times.

I have surprisingly few memories of September 1984 but I think dull, cool, frequent mostly light rain, and non-descript sums it up. Indeed autumn 1984 could be considered a very "boring" season for weather being persistently dull, cool in Sep, and mild in Oct/Nov. Thankfully it was preceded and followed by one of the best summers, and one of the best winters, of my lifetime.

I have memories of late summer 83, travelling on the tube to Epping to see my mum's friend who lived out that way. I recall hearing Howard Jones' New Song, Club Tropicana by Wham, and I'm Still Standing by Elton John, which leads me to believe it was possibly late september or early october 1983, as I remember some warm sunny days.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I'm feeling grumpy today. The cloud is getting to me. I'm really missing the sun. It's so gloomy and depressing!I'm feeling grumpy today. The cloud is getting to me. I'm really missing the sun. It's so gloomy and depressing!

[Sunny76]

9 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'm feeling grumpy today. The cloud is getting to me. I'm really missing the sun. It's so gloomy and depressing!I'm feeling grumpy today. The cloud is getting to me. I'm really missing the sun. It's so gloomy and depressing!

It might be less sunny, but at least its still warm. Feels quite muggy in London today, like we might get a storm later.

It was dark when I woke up at 5am, to head out to my weekend job, and by next week it will be still dark when I leave. I really hate that bit about losing daylight hours. Morning darkness is always a bigger issue for me than evening darkness. I don't like the quietness on weekend mornings when its still dark.

[summer blizzard]

August saw the most positive QBO value for August since 2019 at +0.8.

August saw the most negative PDO value for August since 2012 at -2.3.

 

 

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Still waiting for this washout weekend that we were promised.

Edited September 4, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91