Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A snapshot of the spag ecm12z 850s/ precipitation mems.. very telling

They are really really good , and that warm up at the very end , the one that some people seem to be looking at all ready could very well not happen - this cold could go on for some time

[Arch Stanton]

What’s the situation with the Azores high? Could it rear its ugly head and spoil things or are the models in agreement that it won’t? 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 hours ago, TSNWK said:

and that folks is a WRAP!

The Klingon Deuterium is back!! Looking like the classic charts from the last decade are making a reappearance!

Just returned from Norway today and brought the cold weather with us!

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by prolongedSnowLover

[damianslaw]

GFS shorter term has aligned more closely to ECM, with lower heights to the south weaker and more southerly positioned allowing eventually for a colder NE flow as we move towards the 9th-10th. ECM holding very firm with a much cleaner colder NE flow earlier next week, making less of low heights to the south.

I think best to keep to the closer timeframes now, 120-144 hrs tops, we have a colder pool of air set to move in from the east by Sunday, and this could very easily make it harder for lower heights to edge further north as suggested by GFS.

 

[summer blizzard]

World's best model is gold from day 6. Greenland blocking in charge and a low dropping.

[Allseasons-Si]

The 12z ECM control would pack in some good convection from the north sea,...lake effect snow?,...to be concluded

192...

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Midlands Ice Age]

7 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The Klingon Deuterium is back!! Looking like the classic charts from the last decade are making a reappearance!

Just returned from Norway today and brought the cold weather with us!

 

How did the skiing go? Could need it shortly again.

MIA

[weirpig]

Decent runs today  some snow for some may be edging closer   either way  winter in December is always special  

[sheikhy]

Icon takes the iby low further south at 120 hours like ecm!!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This month of blocking, is looking stronger and colder….Hunga Tonga at play?  Well what’s played out in the SH and the strat there then we could be on for a humdinger….this ‘regime’ isnt going anywhere for some considerable time, locally how it plays out is the interest 

 

BFTP

[Bricriu]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

This month of blocking, is looking stronger and colder….Hunga Tonga at play?  Well what’s played out in the SH and the strat there then we could be on for a humdinger….this ‘regime’ isnt going anywhere for some considerable time, locally how it plays out is the interest 

 

BFTP

Ah it can easily change. We can go from amazing charts to mild muck quite quickly. You can never say with confidence blocked conditions will last a considerable time in our neck of the woods, unfortunately.

[mountain shadow]

33 minutes ago, Arch Stanton said:

What’s the situation with the Azores high? Could it rear its ugly head and spoil things or are the models in agreement that it won’t? 

It's off on It's Winter holidays to Greenland.

Hopefully for at least a month.

[Dancerwithwings]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

It's off on It's Winter holidays to Greenland.

Hopefully for at least a month.

Factor zero needed as there’ll be not much Sun… if any

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Ah it can easily change. We can go from amazing charts to mild muck quite quickly. You can never say with confidence blocked conditions will last a considerable time in our neck of the woods, unfortunately.

Neck of the woods is ‘the crux’ indeed

 

BFTP

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM control follows the op at day ten

[Rain All Night]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's off on It's Winter holidays to Greenland.

Hopefully for at least a month.

This might be a daft question, but is that high that's going to be over Greenland the "same" high that is usually over the Azores or Bermuda?

[Polar Maritime]

I'm finding very difficult to add anything, So I'm sitting back reading some excellent posts. It's been a long time since we have seen such charts...

Edited November 30, 2022 by Polar Maritime
Yes I've spelt a word wrong 😊

[Uncertainty]

Fair play to the eps. Up to 1000 hours out. For people who question how much I value the ec46 - subseasonal model analysis is my passion - and the 46 remains the best tool we have for this challenging forecast domain.

As a full product, the ecm suite is the best we have. Even a day or so ago, it was the only major model progging the GH. Now it’s hard to find a single perturbation from any suite that doesn’t have one. The ecm had a few big fails over the last 18 month, I highlighted many of them, but it’s pulled a blinder this time. As @Daniel*has pointed  out, it got today’s Synoptics high on perfect ten days out.
 

If it’s anywhere near right  in just 8 days time, we’re heading to the freezer. 
 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

42 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

How did the skiing go? Could need it shortly again.

MIA

The skiing was limited as only two runs were open due to lack of enough snow on the western sides and down to valley level. The ECM charts were showing 30cm+ accumulation until Tuesday and it snowed the entire time we were there from Saturday!

At least my wife got to learn to ski and I brushed up on my technique with a lesson too!!

Edited November 30, 2022 by prolongedSnowLover

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM control follows the op at day ten

You’ll like the next few days but not the back end ….

[mountain shadow]

10 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

This might be a daft question, but is that high that's going to be over Greenland the "same" high that is usually over the Azores or Bermuda?

Yes, it is, kind of.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You’ll like the next few days but not the back end ….

Guessing the cold breaks down quickly on the control? 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

You’ll like the next few days but not the back end ….

The graph suggests a slight rise in 850mb mean right at end but skewed by some big mild outliers, otherwise very good, ive seen the NH 500mb mean up to 282 so far, trough dropped further south although ive only got 12z yesterday for comparison, also much better block with less risk of west based - looks a good solid set to me.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

I'm finding very difficult to add anything, So I'm sitting back reading some excellent posts. It's been a long time since we have seen such charts...

I will add to that....

i am finding it difficult to keep up at best of times esp when i come in from work to find that there is 200+ post's

a December to remember is very likely IMO

i don't want to derail the thread but a snippet from the Meto....

A cold northerly flow is likely to develop, drawing temperatures below average and feeling even colder at times, particularly during fresh winds. This may bring some wintry weather, with an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps snow showers, not confined to higher ground.

i had to look on the ECM comparison to see how consistantly it has been

i have picked 6th Dec to see how it picks up this northerly

counting down from day ten to 144hrs today

it has certainly brought this northerly forward

trying to disipher the gfs for the same times,....FORGET IT

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You’ll like the next few days but not the back end ….

I wonder if there’s any way we can maintain the cold pattern until the next phase of favourable background signals potentially come along later in the month?

The HP doing a complete retrograde is probably the worst outcome as it leaves the trop PV free to wind itself up uninhibited thereafter.

I think we need to hope for Arctic heights, however muted, to remain and some legacy of ridging in the N Atlantic (wedges) or to our E. We need to be good to go straight off the bat during the next phase.

Edited November 30, 2022 by CreweCold