Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Eastern Scotland WX]

3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed, the 12z runs are crucial and will be very telling. 

In 45 minutes time its all happening again

[Vikos]

15 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I try and mainly focus on the teleconnection patterns as I know that the basic overall pattern is better until we get within the reliable time frame which for me is about 168 hours but I still succumb to the passion sometimes. 

 

one has to go to the second page of meteociel to see some lower temps… that’s not ramping, just how it is predicted… 🫣

[Scott Ingham]

6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

But if I post a chart of the CURRENT run that should be a given.

I’m not here to specifically spoon feed beginners. I’ve been here for 12 years on this forum, my post style has never changed.

That run is actually a much snowier run than it looks Aaron if you look at all the parameters together it wouldnt be cold rain it would be quite a snowy run.

[Downburst]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

 

Search to your heart's content... right back to 1836.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php

 

Thanks for that. Now who do I complain to  First thing I looked at was the "Night of the Big Wind" Jan 6 1839. The worst storm in over 300 years in Ireland. Sunk 43 ships, killed 120 people in Liverpool as an example and destroyed large swathes of buildings across the UK and Ireland. It is reasonable well documented with a low of 918 hPa recorded. Not showing up on the 500 mb charts at least. Although the Jet Stream looks about correct.

But that aside, I can imagine an AI to review all charts from the past to try to extrapolate a forecast with pattern matches, along with current NWP. The future....

 

 

  

[blizzard81]

27 minutes ago, Eastern Scotland WX said:

In 45 minutes time its all happening again

You don't have to wait that long if you know about the 06z ecm control run . It goes further out than the op which only goes to 90 hours. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The 12z ECM WILL DECIDE winter….itself so crucial. .  Sorry it’ll probably get moved…understandably.   
 

ECM 00z isn’t a bad run, far from it.   It’s still cold rather than mild, blocking hasn’t disappeared, far from it.  Wobble or adjusting or correct.  We won’t know exactly for a few days yet.  So enjoy the ride,  the vortex is still under pressure, a few drinks in any town with the Christmas feel is going to ‘feel’ even more Christmasy.  It’s a great start whether UKMO, GFS, ECM, GEM……with still for it to be resolved.  BUT….it’s more on the cold side than mild side….enjoy the 12s

 

BFTP

[Eastern Scotland WX]

12z runs about to commence:

what we need to see is good cross model agreement towards a scenario such as 06z GFS or 00z GEM. 

[sheikhy]

Ecm control looks very good at 144 hours on the o6z!less of a kink to our north east to send the cold air west into the atlantic and more of a direct feed of cold air into the uk!!!iby lows stays south of the uk as well!!

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm control looks very good at 144 hours on the o6z!less of a kink to our north east to send the cold air west into the atlantic and more of a direct feed of cold air into the uk!!!iby lows stays south of the uk as well!!

The control and mean by day 6 aren’t very changed from the 00z run. 
 

mean slp is dropped south by around 75 miles which reflects the nw French low being closer -  there are positives and negatives but nothing more than expected inter run small swings.
 

another few hours of squeaky bum time ensues ….. 

 

[Cleeve Hill]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

People keep saying that there’s a lot of ramping going on. How I fully expect to watch my lad at football next weekend.

Lovely. Remember watching my Bristol City away to West Brom one Boxing Day years ago. Snow on the pitch, cleared the lines with a spade and an orange ball. Those were the days 

[Scandinavian High.]

I just hope everything goes well this evening met office updated manly rain now in south later next week snow on hills .

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Catching up with the 00zs and 6z outputs 

A nice amount of the GEM ensembles get that brilliant easterly flow in, for those of us wanting the most snow showers / streamers to develop an easterly will be best (the Northeasterly will still have showers some of snow developing but they can be quite a bit drier than easterlies) 

GEM with a superb mean too, its not often you can make out the negatively tilted trough on these especially in the mid - longer ranges as with the means tending to be a bit flatter than the actual outcome

 

comparing to the latest beast in February 2021 number of similarities 

Quite like the look to the JMA also

 

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

I just hope everything goes well this evening met office updated manly rain now in south later next week snow on hills .

That suggests they are going with this mornings ECM?

[Rayth]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

That suggests they are going with this mornings ECM?

Well, their wording can be as fickle as inter model runs so it's best not to place any bets on those paragraphs 

[Scandinavian High.]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

That suggests they are going with this mornings ECM?

If that’s the case I must be jinxed it happens every winter hopefully great runs this evening.

[Gowon]

Icon has gone back to having that annoying low further north again, so not as cold.

Edit: not looking too bad now

Edited December 1, 2022 by Gowon

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

Icon has gone back to having that annoying low further north again, so not as cold.

Disappointing, ECM will be worth watching tonight.

We may very have have a trend on our hands.

[frosty ground]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Disappointing, ECM will be worth watching tonight.

We may very have have a trend on our hands.

The icon is colder than this morning run, with cold air filtering back south quicker 

[Ravelin]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

The icon is colder than this morning run, with cold air filtering back south quicker 

Yep, 0z vs 12Z

 

Variations on a theme

Edited December 1, 2022 by Ravelin

[Gowon]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Disappointing, ECM will be worth watching tonight.

We may very have have a trend on our hands.

It's looking really good now:

[Tim Bland]

Yep, nothing wrong with icon, about 100 miles further south with the low..

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The icon is colder than this morning run, with cold air filtering back south quicker 

Ah, I thought it meant a snow event because of the low.

That's my mistake.

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Yep, nothing wrong with icon, about 100 miles further south with the low..

Cold rain.....lovvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvely!

[TSNWK]

Incon is good - if ECM and GFS follows at the same frame I'll take that now

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Cold rain.....lovvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvely!

Yes it is a "upgrade" for "uppers" but unless you live on a hill.

That's exactly what you're going to get.

Still ICON is better then to this morning's.