Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Dancerwithwings]

21 minutes ago, Gizzy said:

Can't see this SSW amounting to much if I am honest, at best ( or worst ) it will be a cold miserable sleety March.

Far too premature for a comment like that methinks, as the output as only just started to show what the becomings of this potential SSW is about

Your comment sounds familiar…Winter’s over and it’s only December….Mmmmm !!!

Come on give it time 🫣

[snefnug]

“put it bluntly, the first SSW is unlikely to affect surface temps however the second warming might be able to downwell easier”.  
 

so is the conversation now about the first ssw, or has the second ssw occurred and that is what is being discussed?

 

[Summer8906]

Very  nice last couple of days, however a sudden and rapid deterioration in the evening with rain.

Mid-afternoon it was still completely clear!

Met Office suggesting dark cloud in London right out to Tuesday (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2023-02-15), with double figures every day and no night frosts (only on Tuesday do we even get a 5C minimum, for heaven's sake!). Not a nice spell of weather.

However quite a strong signal for high pressure re-centering over the UK around the middle of next week so hopefully things will improve.

 

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Summer8906

[matt111]

Again it didn't feel that warm here as there was a cool breeze. Also it clouded over during the afternoon with the first rain in nearly a month arriving this evening although nothing particularly heavy. 

[Polaris]

Beautiful day, sun felt really warm. 
Roll on spring and get this dire winter out the way!! 
 

Met office from 2 hrs ago 

[S Bragg]

I'm dreading the prospect of Spring and Summer personally.  If it's anything like the horror show of last Summer I think I'll just hibernate in a freezer for a few months.

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

True but if this the what actually happened discussion it wouldn’t be half as entertaining

I'm not so sure about that, I for one would be in my regional posting about conditions, moaning it the snow misses me and goes to the west north downs again, posting picks if it does snow etc.

[matt111]

8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm not so sure about that, I for one would be in my regional posting about conditions, moaning it the snow misses me and goes to the west north downs again, posting picks if it does snow etc.

That's what I usually end up doing. I guess we could say it's all part of the fun. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by matt111

[Gizzy]

15 hours ago, The Rock said:

Insightful post

As insightful as any post and the reason to that is that nobody has any insight, even the experts who are paid thousands to provide updates to government strategists have no clue.

However the trend at the moment is possibly colder but certainly no BFTE.

What insight are you providing.

Edited February 16, 2023 by Gizzy

[Summer8906]

Back to the week before Christmas in more ways than one, sadly.

Firstly it's mild, damp and dull - almost identical conditions to that week.

Secondly, and worse, Southern Water have screwed up again and we are without water for the second time in two months, estimated to be for 48 hours. They obviously prefer to give their CEO a half-million-pound bonus than fix their infrastructure.

Thankfully the longer-term forecast isn't for a repeat of the four weeks of dull and damp we endured over Christmas/New Year, with an injection of colder (not really cold, but closer to normal) and, likely clearer weather by Tuesday evening along with a restoration of anticyclonic conditions. Let's hope the water is off for less than the 48 hours of last time, too.

 

17 hours ago, S Bragg said:

I'm dreading the prospect of Spring and Summer personally.  If it's anything like the horror show of last Summer I think I'll just hibernate in a freezer for a few months.

Knowing more general recent trends, I suspect it's more likely that summer will be cloudier, cooler by day (but warmer by night), and, in August, wetter (but with less thunderstorms) than the 1981-2010 normal...

Spring - well I suspect good chance of warm and sunny at times, but remember "warm" in spring tends to mean about 18C, so certainly not uncomfortably hot...

Edited February 16, 2023 by Summer8906

[matt111]

First wet(ish) day for getting on towards a month today although there hasn’t been a huge amount of rain. 

[Paul_1978]

Having enjoyed the almost spring-like weather recently, I for one am not particularly looking forward to any upcoming colder weather. I love snow but would have preferred it in Dec and Jan, not as we are about to enter March!

[pad199207]

It can Snow in March no problem 

 

 

[johncam]

Latest output is crud , a toppler then back to nothingness 

 

 

 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, johncam said:

Latest output is crud , a toppler then back to nothingness 

 

 

 

Backtrack #1! 

[RhHh]

51 minutes ago, johncam said:

Latest output is crud , a toppler then back to nothingness 

 

 

 

Yes same old rubbish. Typically we have our first named storm of the season. Did the UK met office name it? Of course not, the Danish did! 

[matt111]

I don't mind cold weather in early March as long as it actually delivers something worthwhile, which It certainly can do as the last proper snowfall I saw was in March 2018. Don't want it hanging on too long though, especially into the latter part of the month.

[January Snowstorm]

For me the difference between first few days of March and mid month are huge! Perhaps because our National holiday falls on 17th I have decades of memories of this day and not one of them was noteworthy of disruptive or even lying snow. Snow in mid March will melt in 10mins no matter how cold the uppers are

Re 2018, a special event that coincided with 26th Feb to 2nd March. Copious snow that year that in my view would not have layed in mid March!

I still feel things will nudge forward over the next few days & it needs to. We have one bite at this, and whether the vortex recovers or not is irrelevant, Spring will take hold mid month onwards

Edited February 16, 2023 by January Snowstorm

[StingJet]

3 hours ago, RhHh said:

Yes same old rubbish. Typically we have our first named storm of the season. Did the UK met office name it? Of course not, the Danish did! 

Understandably, just a regular gale for Scotland and the Northern Isles, where as packing a fair old punch when Otto hits Denmark, 975Mb as shown on the NAVGEM 12z for Friday eve ,  isobars as tight as a camel's ar*e in a sandstorm 

Edited February 16, 2023 by StingJet

[Catacol]

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

For me the difference between first few days of March and mid month are huge! Perhaps because our National holiday falls on 17th I have decades of memories of this day and not one of them was noteworthy of disruptive or even lying snow. Snow in mid March will melt in 10mins no matter how cold the uppers are

Re 2018, a special event that coincided with 26th Feb to 2nd March. Copious snow that year that in my view would not have layed in mid March!

I have photographs of deep lying snow in Somerset on March 18 2018. It is quite simply not true that snow cannot lie in mid March. Ideally, however, the weather stays cloudy obviously….

[DOdo]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I have photographs of deep lying snow in Somerset on March 18 2018. It is quite simply not true that snow cannot lie in mid March. Ideally, however, the weather stays cloudy obviously….

I remember having heavy snow fall on March 18th 2018, they cancelled the St Patricks Festival. 

[Ben_]

13 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I have photographs of deep lying snow in Somerset on March 18 2018. It is quite simply not true that snow cannot lie in mid March. Ideally, however, the weather stays cloudy obviously….

There was loads of snow on the Isle of Portland too, drifts around 4ft in places.

[nobble]

21 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I have photographs of deep lying snow in Somerset on March 18 2018. It is quite simply not true that snow cannot lie in mid March. Ideally, however, the weather stays cloudy obviously….

In 2013 deep snow lay for 5 days end of March .. with still bein snow patches up until April 11th !!!!

[RhHh]

33 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Understandably, just a regular gale for Scotland and the Northern Isles, where as packing a fair old punch when Otto hits Denmark, 975Mb as shown on the NAVGEM 12z for Friday eve ,  isobars as tight as a camel's ar*e in a sandstorm 

Has the UK ever named a storm? It seems to me that it is left to the Spanish, French,  Portuguese, Irish and now the Danish. 

[StingJet]

21 minutes ago, RhHh said:

Has the UK ever named a storm? It seems to me that it is left to the Spanish, French,  Portuguese, Irish and now the Danish. 

This is a good watch , for some background info
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hYmQEgtNuo&t=24s

Edited February 16, 2023 by StingJet