Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

 I bet my Birthday ( April 3rd ) has seem more snow than yours 

Of that I have no doubt. 

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Of that I have no doubt. 

I hope it never snows on mine, or there will be a problem somewhere, August.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

At T+336 ! If only.....

P4 would do, or 21 . 

[MJB]

9 minutes ago, swfc said:

According to the live forecast just now "absolutely know sign of any cold weather and the warmth across Europe to continue.

That's of no surprise though , when they say "no sign" they aren't talking throughout the month of January , they are more than likely talking 7-10 days 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

P4 would do, or 21 . 

T24 would do for either of those charts.....

[blizzard81]

That is one huge mass of brutally cold air over Russia and Asia. It looks primed. We just need to find a way for it to head west. 

[northwestsnow]

Is the Atlantic EVER going to slow down

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The thing of note for me regarding the 12z run is the PV looks far less organised than the 0z run.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

That is one huge mass of brutally cold air over Russia and Asia. It looks primed. We just need to find a way for it to head west. 

It’s been a strange weather year, what’s to say it won’t and we get the coldest Feb on record followed by a cold spring. It seems anything can happen this year.  

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

It’s been a strange weather year, what’s to say it won’t and we get the coldest Feb on record followed by a cold spring. It seems anything can happen this year.  

Quite a call to make on January 2nd! 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Quite a call to make on January 2nd! 

Ever the optimist when it comes to weather, hope-casting at its best I mean, I’d take a couple of sleety showers right now !! 

[Kentspur]

17 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I hope it never snows on mine, or there will be a problem somewhere, August.

I remember when I was young there was a big snowfall in August around my mums bday in Sheffield I think it was never seen it in July (my birthday)

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Quite a call to make on January 2nd! 

Beat me to it - Maybe Ali is a time traveller and knows what's en route 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I remember when I was young there was a big snowfall in August around my mums bday in Sheffield I think it was never seen it in July (my birthday)

Sure snow in August is not possible, 850's cannot get low enough

[Derecho]

All the models are pushing that cold air over Scandi away with ease now. If that had stayed it could have really started influencing things but it looks to be sinking back into Eurasia.

A shame, onto the next chase but some pretty uninspiring output at the moment.

Edited January 2, 2023 by Quicksilver1989

[Purga]

With persistent High Pressure to the south and no northern blocking, it's a tortuous route to any cold at all.

All roads inevitably lead to Bartlett

[Dale Leigh_6487]

I think that weather event was hailstone 

due to  thunderstorm 

[MJB]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Sure snow in August is not possible, 850's cannot get low enough

Incorrect - it snowed in June 1971 and in 1975 as far south as Birmingham - appreciate you have said August but June is still Summer 

Edited January 2, 2023 by MJB

[Sunny76]

32 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I wouldn’t trust a forecast made by someone who can’t even spell the word no

[Mike Poole]

Quite happy with the ECM op, actually.  The main low moves through quickly, erodes the euro heights, and seemingly sets up an amplifying pattern upstream, which is what we would want, T240:

Patience needed for the next 10 days, but beyond that a lot up for grabs, even prior to a SSW, and then that potentially in the mix too.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Any crumbs of comfort from tonight's ECM?

Perhaps that Ural Blocking forcing some waves into the PV if it sustains. Like many have said the next 10 days are a bust...but I feel we need to keep a close eye on how the 2nd half of the month shapes up!

I've got a feeling tonight's 46 may hint at some Blocking later this month and beyond..hold tight folks its gonna be a head banger.

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by MATTWOLVES

[Lukesluckybunch]

27 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

P4 would do, or 21 . 

When are people gonna learn we never get these kind of patterns come to fruition..especially not 300+ hours away!

[Don]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is the Atlantic EVER going to slow down

Yes in April probably!

[Ali1977]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

When are people gonna learn we never get these kind of patterns come to fruition..especially not 300+ hours away!

Course we don’t, it’s just good to post some nice charts every now and then when we have nothing else on show. Anyone posting an ENS member in FI is fully aware it won’t materialise, even an op fir that matter - it’s all about patterns and possibilities!!! 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

Incorrect - it snowed in June 1971 

850's in early June can get lower than in August.