Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Don]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I've got a feeling

Like the Black Eyed Peas would say?!  

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

Incorrect - it snowed in June 1971 

Wasn't that 1975 right at the start of the month? And it was in Buxton I think, which is pretty high up. Stopped a cricket match. That summer ended up very warm. I'm pretty sure there has never been any recorded snow in August in the UK except maybe on the very highest Scottish mountains

Sums it up doesn't it? You know the models are awful for winter cold when we're remembering yesteryear

GFS ensembles suggest almost anything could happen mid-month

Incredible warmth or deep cold? probably end up with 8C and drizzle

[damianslaw]

Entering true winter period now and as often the case, the atlantic rules the roost, eating away its deepest depths. Not much to say other than more of what we have had for 2 weeks now, atlantic barreling through, very mild in the south, closer to average further north. High pressure building to the NE has the effect of preventing the trough from pushing eastwards,  a common theme of last 2 years, however, it will be further east than on many a recent occasion and this just means lots of rain and frontal activity coming unstuck somewhat over the UK. 

Perhaps in a week's time we may see a signal for something colder, with lower heights digging further into Europe kicking aside euro heights and we may then pull in colder air from the NW, looks a slow old process, but there are suggestions this is the direction of travel as we approach mid month. Second half of the month remains uncertain. 

[SqueakheartLW]

Could we get one of these to count down to T+0 and come true at least

Easterlies/Beasterlies

Not too much to ask surely to give us some proper cold from the east

Northerlies

If we can't have an easterly or beasterly at least give us one of these below

Battleground UK

If none of the above I'll settle for this final option from the last 24 hours worth of GFS output

A perfect battle between the cold high and the Atlantic and could end up as a band of snow since the mild sector is getting squeezed out as the front approaches.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

 I bet my Birthday ( April 3rd ) has seem more snow than yours 

It would not surprise me if southern England sees more snow, or at least sleet, on April 1-15 than Jan 1-15 on average! April is notable for the Atlantic going quiet and often northerlies getting in.

[johncam]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

Could we get one of these to count down to T+0 and come true at least

Easterlies/Beasterlies

Not too much to ask surely to give us some proper cold from the east

Northerlies

If we can't have an easterly or beasterly at least give us one of these below

Battleground UK

If none of the above I'll settle for this final option from the last 24 hours worth of GFS output

A perfect battle between the cold high and the Atlantic and could end up as a band of snow since the mild sector is getting squeezed out as the front approaches.

Sad to say with current output probably not 

[LRD]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes in April probably!

Aprils have been pretty good in recent years. Even the cold April of 2021 was sunny despite the damaging, unwanted frost

[Don]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

Aprils have been pretty good in recent years. Even the cold April of 2021 was sunny despite the damaging, unwanted frost

Better chance of colder synoptics to come off in April compared to mid winter these days!!

2 minutes ago, johncam said:

Sad to say with current output probably not 

Eye candy only these days eh?!

[johncam]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Better chance of colder synoptics to come off in April compared to mid winter these days!!

Eye candy only these days eh?!

Yep correct Don , hopefully get a better picture of rest of January in a week or so 

[Alexis]

47 minutes ago, MJB said:

That's of no surprise though , when they say "no sign" they aren't talking throughout the month of January , they are more than likely talking 7-10 days 

Exactly. Go and watch the Met's 10 day forecasts at the end of November on YouTube.

Edited January 2, 2023 by Alexis

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Better chance of colder synoptics to come off in April compared to mid winter these days!!

Eye candy only these days eh?!

That's not the reality though in recent times. April 2021 was a rare cold April this century. Check out the CET stats for Aprils from 2002 - hardly any below 8c (roughly the average) and only 1 below 7C (2021)

5 have had CETs above 10c this century with loads in the 9s

[swfc]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

I wouldn’t trust a forecast made by someone who can’t even spell the word no

Accept my sincere and humble apologies. It was on the bbc btw

Edited January 2, 2023 by swfc

[MJB]

26 minutes ago, LRD said:

Wasn't that 1975 right at the start of the month? And it was in Buxton I think, which is pretty high up. Stopped a cricket match. That summer ended up very warm. I'm pretty sure there has never been any recorded snow in August in the UK except maybe on the very highest Scottish mountains

Sums it up doesn't it? You know the models are awful for winter cold when we're remembering yesteryear

GFS ensembles suggest almost anything could happen mid-month

Incredible warmth or deep cold? probably end up with 8C and drizzle

Snowed at Lords , which is about as low as you can get to sea level I'd of thought , and in EA as well as Brum

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

Snowed at Lords , which is about as low as you can get to sea level I'd of thought , and in EA as well as Brum

We're both right but snow didn't stop play at Lord's I don't think

Weatherwatch: freak snow stopped cricket on 2 June 1975 | Extreme weather | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

---

Arctic winds swept across UK, followed by another surprise on 6 June when heatwave struck

Weatherwatch- freak snow stopped cricket on 2 June 1975 - Extreme weather - The Guardian.urlhttps://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/jun/01/weatherwatch-freak-snow-stopped-cricket-on-2-june-1975

 

[ANYWEATHER]

40 minutes ago, LRD said:

Wasn't that 1975 right at the start of the month? And it was in Buxton I think, which is pretty high up. Stopped a cricket match. That summer ended up very warm. I'm pretty sure there has never been any recorded snow in August in the UK except maybe on the very highest Scottish mountains

Sums it up doesn't it? You know the models are awful for winter cold when we're remembering yesteryear

GFS ensembles suggest almost anything could happen mid-month

Incredible warmth or deep cold? probably end up with 8C and drizzle

June 2nd 1975....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

June big difference to Aug! these would not be snow in Aug,

Edited January 2, 2023 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Stuie]

Blimey am I in the right forum?

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Blimey am I in the right forum?

Yeah mate, you are. Here have a chart:

Which kind of sums up the uninteresting outlook hence why the conversation has drifted I s'pose. Often happens when things look completely dull. Feel free to move my posts mods

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yeah mate, you are. Here have a chart:

Which kind of sums up the uninteresting outlook hence why the conversation has drifted I s'pose. Often happens when things look completely dull. Feel free to move my posts mods

Those ens are shockingly bad.

[LightningLover]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Those ens are shockingly bad.

Only ~20% of the individual ensembles fall *just* below average into FI... ouch.

Edited January 2, 2023 by LightningLover

[MJB]

18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

June big difference to Aug! these would not be snow in Aug,

So ?

If 850's are cold enough it will snow in any month 

[LRD]

Those of you of a nervous disposition do not look at the ECM46. It's a shocker

Luckily I don't really rate it - especially it's longer range output

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Only ~20% of the individual ensembles fall *just* below average into FI... ouch.

TBH the next 10 to 14 days are a write off..

The second half of the month is up for grabs.

Taking into account the last fortnight the Euro High will have ruined a third of Winter,minimum.

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by northwestsnow

[LightningLover]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH the next 10 to 14 days are a write off..

The second half of the month is up for grabs.

Taking into account the last fortnight the Euro High will have ruined a third of Winter,minimum.

 

I should be lamenting, but at this point it's like... Are we surprised? lol. To be brutally honest, by mid-late February as the sun strengthens and the daylight has increased to a notable degree, my interest turns towards spring and the convective season anyway, so I really only have a month and a half of hope and energy left in me!

Edited January 2, 2023 by LightningLover

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, LRD said:

Those of you of a nervous disposition do not look at the ECM46. It's a shocker

Luckily I don't really rate it - especially it's longer range output

That could be good or close to being

That tells me it hasn't a clue 

Not good but so far out who is worrying 

Back to the Atlantic

EC 46 Was useless last year , so I'm not taking it seriously