Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Ali1977]

16 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Well Well more of the same from the gfs..mild throughout it would appear!even them transient shots from the north and northwest look out the picture now..not very good for cold the next two weeks! All of this after a rubbish ECM also

If the patterns are going to change best look for trends in the ENS rather that each op. The ENS are trending colder in FI on the 00z, so shortly we’ll find out if that continues. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I can never understand why some get so stressed out over every op run. We need to see some concensus from the ens with a colder clustering of members showing up..And this morning we have achieved that from the 0z. 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 06 hrs run T114 hrs is quite similar to the ECM 00hrs run to T120 hrs although the former makes more of that very annoying shortwave off the coast of Norway .

I'm not to worried what the GFS shows re strength of lows unless it's still there at t48, it's been over powering up to then a lot recently, while other models haven't been interested. However who knows it might be right this time.

[Vikos]

50 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Encouraging GEFS so far to day 7 with the Euro high either flattened or displaced further west.

European ski resorts will be praying this trend continues as it’s been a horror show for the last few weeks especially for lower altitude stations .

Sadly, a few people already died due the lag of snow in the mountains when they came off route and crashed into non snow covered rocky terrain… 

[jmp223]

I think our only real hope for cold/snow rests on a SSW style event.  Models scream prolonged zonality to me at the moment.

[Ali1977]

Day 10 GEFS 500hpa mean anomalies still suggest a southern European high, that is gone in FI with heights to our NW and NE, albeit quite weak signals!! 
It’s a little boring viewing at the minute to be fair , particularly now the PM activity is dwindling - hoping for a quick MJO burst!! 
 

 

 

Some of the better GEFS 06z members in FI. Not quite as good as the 00z. 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Ali1977

[Don]

37 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 10 GEFS 500hpa mean anomalies still suggest a southern European high, that is gone in FI with heights to our NW and NE, albeit quite weak signals!! 
It’s a little boring viewing at the minute to be fair , particularly now the PM activity is dwindling - hoping for a quick MJO burst!! 

The trouble is the European high only disappears in FI and doesn't seem to get any closer!!  Doesn't really fill me with hope.

Edited January 2, 2023 by Don

[MJB]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I can never understand why some get so stressed out over every op run. We need to see some concensus from the ens with a colder clustering of members showing up..And this morning we have achieved that from the 0z. 

Totally agree , funny thing is if the Op is a blinder then the ENS will be consulted and screams of a mild outlier will follow

[January Snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, MJB said:

Totally agree , funny thing is if the Op is a blinder then the ENS will be consulted and screams of a mild outlier will follow

I guess it's because people realise that in 10 days time(reliable timeframe) we will have had about 3 weeks of mildish zonal in the heart of Winter. Nothing unusual of course it happens every year and plenty of Winter ahead of us. Just a tad frustrating 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

The trouble is the European high only disappears in FI and doesn't seem to get any closer!!  Doesn't really fill me with hope.

This is exactly where I am presently..

I'm not commenting much because it's the hunt for cold but my concern like you is the models underestimating the durability of that damn slug and as time ticks down more energy emerges in the Atlantic and scuppers any chance of a ridge building.. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

I guess it's because people realise that in 10 days time(reliable timeframe) we will have had about 3 weeks of mildish zonal in the heart of Winter. Nothing unusual of course it happens every year and plenty of Winter ahead of us. Just a tad frustrating 

Given the output at the moment, myself and likely many others are fearing that we have already had the best of what winter 2022-23 has to offer, which was the cold spell from December 7th to 17th.  Last month the cold spell did produce the first colder than average month since May 2021, but given the output at the moment, it is difficult to see January being anything other than above average, and possibly a very mild first half.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Am i the only one seeing promise amongst the 6z ens? I've also been concerned about temps around the Moscow area for some time with maximums of around 0C...Throughout the week we have much colder conditions developing there with -20s showing there hand. We do need the cold too become more expansive around these parts that's a given.

Edited January 2, 2023 by MATTWOLVES

[MP-R]

38 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I guess it's because people realise that in 10 days time(reliable timeframe) we will have had about 3 weeks of mildish zonal in the heart of Winter. Nothing unusual of course it happens every year and plenty of Winter ahead of us. Just a tad frustrating 

Haha nope… it happens ‘many a year’ but not every year, otherwise there’d be no point looking at the models at all.

Frustrating viewing all the same though. Such a pain being in a much better position for cold than many winters but having our cold spell disappear with the click of a finger and now farting about waiting for even seasonal conditions let alone cold is just woeful.

[blizzard81]

An improvement out west on the 06z ecm control compared to this morning's 00z run. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

If the patterns are going to change best look for trends in the ENS rather that each op. The ENS are trending colder in FI on the 00z, so shortly we’ll find out if that continues. 

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

If the patterns are going to change best look for trends in the ENS rather that each op. The ENS are trending colder in FI on the 00z, so shortly we’ll find out if that continues. 

But it's has to be said ali..that the ens for my area aren't great either..take the mean for example it hovers around -2 line..not exactly great tbh!

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

But it's has to be said ali..that the ens for my area aren't great either..take the mean for example it hovers around -2 line..not exactly great tbh!

Yep not great, but also plenty of time for change . I don’t think we were looking for hope before mid month anyway, let’s just hope to see more blocking in the charts as the MJO starts to be modelled correctly - if the MJO indeed helps

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

An improvement out west on the 06z ecm control compared to this morning's 00z run. 

Still turns into a bowling ball though. They never seem to get modelled wrongly do they? Unfortunately. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Potentially a big warming event could be showing its head further into the month. Imagine a 2018 repeat! Oh yes I would snatch your hand off for it.

Would be nice for the met to bring this up before much longer,as the Beeb already have! For now it's a waiting game.

[Ali1977]

16 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Potentially a big warming event could be showing its head further into the month. Imagine a 2018 repeat! Oh yes I would snatch your hand off for it.

Would be nice for the met to bring this up before much longer,as the Beeb already have! For now it's a waiting game.

Having just read the bbc long range there are reasons to be positive about their thoughts Hopefully a bit of wording change with the METO just in time for -5c uppers on the GEFS ENS in FI on the 12z.

 

 

[Nick2373]

Going from the 06z it looks your basic January affair currently colder further North the jet stream forced further south bringing its usual Jan rain fest. Going forward there's muses of an SSW  but we all know these sometimes do not always full in our favour.  currently at the minute anything past the 09th up for grabs with slightly just above or below temps colder north snow on hills, warmer south with rain or showers your default British winter. Over the years of reading and watching others post and talk about the models the killer for any winter is when that raging PV sets up over Canada. 

If anything I've learnt with this Island is that in two weeks we could be staring down a best from the East or raging SSW's dragging the moisture with it, so chin up everyone its just the weather don't get sucked into it.  

[Catacol]

The advice to go and take a break from the models for a week or so CLEARLY wasn't mean't for me - when I look into the mirror all I see is a weather junkie. No end to that in sight. 

A day after posting about a second half of the month potential/straw clutching shift to a new phase being possible....with the need for a Scandy high to enhance our chances going forward.....more interesting developments. 3 x EPS charts for midnight on Jan 10. The 3 runs are midnight ones, on 31st, 1st, 2nd consecutively.

Baby steps - but baby steps undoubtedly in the right direction. Note on each run a progressive suggestion of an elongation of the atlantic trough and therefore - at last (cos we have been waiting an age for this "predicted" context to emerge) - a resultant eddy over Scandy with the first signs of a scandy block being possible in the days that follow.

Long way to go. Need this direction of travel to be sustained. And if my EAMT stuff made any sense at all yesterday - good developments there too. High pressure makes better clear progress over the Himalayas on last night's run with a sharper pressure gradient dropping in behind it. 

More optimistic today that the second bite of the winter cherry might begin to emerge mid month and after. Another chase on the cards....this time with more cold to tap into.

 

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 168.

Less said about that garbage the better.

I referred to the Atlantic sector earlier, we can see the heights across Europe have been eroded but with out some kind of ridge in the Atlantic the pattern will just flattern out again ...

Rinse and repeat.. 

 

[weathercold]

As mentioned a few days ago, I’ve seen nothing across any model suite to suggest anything different to what we have now.

No sustained wintry weather before mid Jan and based on recent days happy to extend this out to late Jan now.

It’s evident the pattern is stuck in a rut and we need a significant hemispheric pattern change, unlikely at present.

I sense we are looking to Feb now for our next window and even then I think an ssw might be our best hope. A winter which promised so much in early to mid Dec is quickly becoming all too familiar sadly.

 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Still turns into a bowling ball though. They never seem to get modelled wrongly do they? Unfortunately. 

Yes they can be, remember the tropical storm that might have shortened our last cold spell, that was a bowling ball, and only in the last three days was it shown by most to flatten and go under, and was one hundred percent agree till 48 hours if I remember right, might have been a day earlier for both.

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, weathercold said:

As mentioned a few days ago, I’ve seen nothing across any model suite to suggest anything different to what we have now.

No sustained wintry weather before mid Jan and based on recent days happy to extend this out to late Jan now.

It’s evident the pattern is stuck in a rut and we need a significant hemispheric pattern change, unlikely at present.

I sense we are looking to Feb now for our next window and even then I think an ssw might be our best hope. A winter which promised so much in early to mid Dec is quickly becoming all too familiar sadly.

 

Why not though? We all chase cold FI charts which rarely come off, currently nothing is showing cold but why should that be correct? We have strat warming, MJO into phase 7 and other factors as mentioned above. 
The only thing fir me not screaming chances later Jan is the METO long range , which is hopefully wrong

FI on this run is quite interesting with the build of heights to our east and elongated PV!! 
We need some good ENS runs now 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Ali1977