Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Don]

5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

What we need is the introduction of another weather model

What we need is the introduction of another climate.

[bluearmy]

That gfs run has stretched the upper strat vortex more than any previous run I think. if we can keep bringing the warmings around from the Asian side then a stretched vortex could be split and allow the Aleutian strat ridge to push between and force a split ssw which would probably be more beneficial than a displacement (assuming we actually could get a reversal)

quite a way off yet though …..

[Frosty.]

We’ll always have Paris!…nooo. We’ll always have P17!  

[tight isobar]

Deep cold at every corner ! Yet getting incursion into the uk is graft an, a half ! It’s not even problematic energy syncs.. it’s just the fold of being a maritime island plonk in the middle of absorbing cold landmass latitudes!! .. with such formats in the top hemisphere.. we surely have to nick the cherry punet soon!!

[Ali1977]

32 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

We’ll always have Paris!…nooo. We’ll always have P17!  

Yeah that would do

[Don]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Deep cold at every corner ! Yet getting incursion into the uk is graft an, a half ! It’s not even problematic energy syncs.. it’s just the fold of being a maritime island plonk in the middle of absorbing cold landmass latitudes!! .. with such formats in the top hemisphere.. we surely have to nick the cherry punet soon!!

It's all down to the Euro slug!!

[northwestsnow]

And there's the heights to the south again its just like a bad smell.

[mulzy]

Raised eyebrow ECM day 9.

[tight isobar]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Yeah that would do

Giant gold nuggets in a field of tin.. however keep detecting and ya have to find at least some gold.. the mjo forcing is soon to override!.. I’m done with teleconections- atm for the stark reasons of my former post! ..minimal land mass encroachment- and dynamics of massive miss- direction!!!

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

It's all down to the Euro slug!!

Indeed! That geographically have to land exactly on point- for a singular block format to cold drafting into the uk,,!!!

[Don]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Indeed! That geographically have to land exactly on point- for a singular block format to cold drafting into the uk,,!!!

Until it moves, we may as well give up searching for cold!!

[Stuie]

Well, there is the coldest this ECM run gets, ouch.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And there's the heights to the south again its just like a bad smell.

Another symptom of climate change!  Yesterday it looked like it may have been on its last legs but it's here to stay today!!

Edited January 1, 2023 by Don

[tight isobar]

Just now, Don said:

Until it moves, we may as well give up searching for cold!!

Most certainly! And Angular momentum/ mjo orbital plots etc etc mean jack all to our island!! Here’s a perfect snapshot - example of simple consequence!!

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Most certainly! And Angular momentum/ mjo orbital plots etc etc mean jack all to our island!! Here’s a perfect snapshot - example of simple consequence!!

I hear the frustration, want to torque about it?

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

I hear the frustration, want to torque about it?

Trolly through - mountain torque syncs-the rolling plots evade anything uk bound- we could have record breaking HLB- with eye watering height pressure- And still sit in the shovel plots!!!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm gonna make a prediction here. After viewing all the ens from gfs I've noticed that many are removing those stubborn iberian heights! We've got more of a mid Atlantic ridge at times and there's plenty of pv stretching evident.

If we lose those Southern heights we should start to see some influence from the MJO which could promote a little better positioning of Blocking...couple this with pv displacement or possible split and we could be looking at a more productive 2nd half of the month.

But I'm feeling a little more confident we can rid ourselves of that pain in the ass slug.

The shorter term remaining more mobile with colder intrusions from the NW at times. I noticed the BBC monthly the other day was pointing towards this colder 2nd part of January,and the potential for some strat weakening...yet the met give no mention whatsoever!! I for one hope they're wrong...but i actually feel they will be wrong.

I think some are throwing the towel in far to easy this evening..The point being is..forget about the next 10 days...and look towards mid month for things to change..That High will not remain rooted to that spot indefinitely.

It may actually decide to move come Summer

Edited January 1, 2023 by MATTWOLVES

[nick sussex]

The ECM builds a strong Russian high just as the limpet Euro slug was heading nw and the likely scenario is it sticks troughing over the UK and stops an eastwards progression of that when more amplitude upstream was likely to develop ! Yuk did someone run over a black cat ! 

[Eagle Eye]

AAM has been staying fairly neutral recently and despite the quick rebound it probably wasn't sustained enough as the pressure returned back over the Himilayas as a quick reaction and balancing out of momentum flux and the energy patterns returned back to normal and a loss of torque could be seen fairly quickly. Note that despite this the AAM has remained away from -VE largely and so the atmosphere continues to try and not liken itself with the La Nina oceanic pattern in the Pacific. Over the next fee days the Pacific jet fluctuates a bit and we see the collapse of very cold air but also a sort of collapse of the Eurasian block and thus the cycle of EAMT continues as over time the +VE EAMT and -VE EAMT are usually related quite well. The zonal feedback of a -VE EAMT event is to retract the East Asian Jet and attempt to form some sort of Eurasian ridging in feedback to that which seems to keep the Himilayan pattern in check as long as it sustains. The downstream effects of a -VE EAMT event don't matter too much but it can drag up a Scandi high but most times it results in the horrid Euro ridge that's so hard to replace. However, the collapse of the high pressure feedback as the zonal effects weaken over time can often cause the high pressure vertical wave projections over the Himilayas as the +VE EAMT event forms and the distribution of the Strat pattern especially begins due to this.

The MJO can often gradually influence the pattern so it's important to note the two patterns together as well.

The best lag correlated phases are 6/7/8/1 with the development of that central Asia +VE temperature anomalies though phase 1 is fairly dubious plus its usually noted as being right on the line of COD as its typically a rather nondescript phase in terms of the strength of Convection. Phases 2/3/4/5 probably more helpful in during -VE EAMT events (e.g recent event also associated with phase 4/5 with the colder central Asia temperatures) and can have a negative impact on the initial formation of the Eurasian block though phase 5 possibly less so and so I think the recent -VE EAMT event probably correlated itself well with the quick phase 5 and now we're seeing the effects of phase 6/7 being modelled so how phase 7 typically evolves along with the result of external factors will be how Asia should eventually evolve and so the development of the Himilayan high moving into the week 1/2 boundary is fairly inescapable and that's where the GWO forecast from the GFS also seems to be moving to.

Whilst the MJO isn't significantly strong, it still seems to be helping at least a little bit in the formation of how the events are evolving. Right now we're around phase 7 and should slowly start propagating into phase 8 as we go into mid month which may actually be better as it tends tends build high latitude North American blocking (Canada wise) and even though it may setup a slightly more zonal Atlantic due to typically colder for the East of the USA (or it could build up WAA towards Greenland), the North American high-latitude blocking will continue to drive vertical Eddy's and may support a Wave-2 setup. Though, I think that'll rely on timing with how the EAMT evolves and how strong Phase 8 eventually gets of course.

[stodge]

Evening all

Plenty of interest this evening in the 12Z suite. It looks as though we will move from a briefly fairly benign spell into a more unsettled and colder spell (nothing remarkable in that) with PM domination over the weekend. GFS OP backed off on that a little but ECM has tantalised with height rises to the NE and the possibility of the trough aligning slightly negative through northern Europe.

GFS OP in FI will have piqued interest - there were LRFs which offered a more anticyclonic spell in mid to late January so kudos if it proves accurate. The Wave 1 and 2 pressure on the PV looks considerable to mid month and the synoptic charts in far FI - while not offering much for snow fans - are showing -8 850s which would be cold.

In the more immediate, the rain continues albeit perhaps less intense than it has been:

No real surprises there with North Wales due for nearly 6 inches in old money but higher numbers through southern counties suggesting, as we've seen, secondary LP features and troughs running along the Channel coast.

[johncam]

32 minutes ago, Don said:

Until it moves, we may as well give up searching for cold!!

Yep ,sad to say you are right Don,  need to climb a hill to see anything wintry 

[Cold Winter Night]

I find EC interesting. Compared to 24 hrs ago, it makes much more of the Scandi/Russian heights and the trough disrupting.
Eventually it has a little bit of a January 2012 flavour to it, with that Russian High, and the heights lowering over Europe.

At least there are things to watch in the output, even within the 10 day range.

[Kasim Awan]

Personally dont see anything eyebrow raising just yet. Seems to be a continuation of the westerly theme for the forseeable, with any interest from background drivers being kept for say 10th Jan onwards.

[Kasim Awan]

Also the bit of cold zonality we were chasing from 7th to 9th Jan has been slowly watered down and replaced with more Azores air influence - a trend often seen during zonal spells.

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

I find EC interesting. Compared to 24 hrs ago, it makes much more of the Scandi/Russian heights and the trough disrupting.
Eventually it has a little bit of a January 2012 flavour to it, with that Russian High, and the heights lowering over Europe.

At least there are things to watch in the output, even within the 10 day range.

The problem with those bloated Russian highs is they rarely deliver . I think the last one I can remember was that exceptional spell in February 2012. I was living in sw France then near Lourdes and the cold was something else.  The Garonne river further north started to freeze over . And I’m sure in your location they were able to skate on the canals .