Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[blizzard81]

First halves of Januaries in the UK are in the main quite boring atlantic driven affairs. The reason I say this is the fact it is my birthday next week. I think I can only recall probably 4 ocassions tops where I have seen a snow flake drop on my birthday - and I will be 5 decades old in just over a year. My son's birthday is at the end of Jan and I can recall several snow events on his birthday - he is in his late teens. 

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yes they can be, remember the tropical storm that might have shortened our last cold spell, that was a bowling ball, and only in the last three days was it shown by most to flatten and go under, and was one hundred percent agree till 48 hours if I remember right, might have been a day earlier for both.

This one is coming in from a more usual direction though so I expect the models to pretty much have it nailed. Hope I'm wrong though. 

[January Snowstorm]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

First halves of Januaries in the UK are in the main quite boring atlantic driven affairs. The reason I say this is the fact it is my birthday next week. I think I can only recall probably 4 ocassions tops where I have seen a snow flake drop on my birthday - and I will be 5 decades old in just over a year. My son's birthday is at the end of Jan and I can recall several snow events on his birthday - he is in his late teens. 

Yes an extraordinary stat but for whatever reason early January has been mild zonal over several decades. 

[Tim Bland]

A scandi high doing its best to hold the Atlantic at bay. If it precedes a SSW it may assist with a split of the PV

[northwestsnow]

Strat continues to interest..

 

 

[blizzard81]

Not pretending in any way to be a strat expert but I think this looks like a good starting point synoptic wise. This is the gfs mean at 8 days. 

[The PIT]

Same old for the reliable time frame the normal tease thrown up in lala land. I'm already thinking one of the mildest January's on record if not the mildest could well be a possibility this early on.

[NewEra21]

I know it's only the 2nd of January, but let's hope the strat forecasts are onto something and we see a warming or a full on SSW.

Because the model viewing is quite simply turgid at the moment, let's hope for some interest in the second half of Jan and into February.

Edited January 2, 2023 by NewEra21

[bluearmy]

 More and more indications that the spv will become stretched as week 2 progresses. It’s already displaced by this point. Now gfs seems extremely keen on an amplification end week 2.  You’d expect that the combination we see on that gfs op run of scandi ridge and Aleutian trough would drive activity upwards that would be happy to find a stretched spv. if we are to see an ssw, wouldn’t want it dragging into feb because I don’t want a cold spring and there’s no guarantee of a quick response (which finds nw europe)  in feb. The repeated downwelling through march and April would no doubt verify! 

of course a displaced and unhappy vortex isn’t going to be leading any trop/strat dance anytime soon.  So we could do with some teleconnective info which lends to trop amplification and HLB post mid month. 

[MJB]

23 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

First halves of Januaries in the UK are in the main quite boring atlantic driven affairs. The reason I say this is the fact it is my birthday next week. I think I can only recall probably 4 ocassions tops where I have seen a snow flake drop on my birthday - and I will be 5 decades old in just over a year. My son's birthday is at the end of Jan and I can recall several snow events on his birthday - he is in his late teens. 

This one is coming in from a more usual direction though so I expect the models to pretty much have it nailed. Hope I'm wrong though. 

 I bet my Birthday ( April 3rd ) has seem more snow than yours 

[January Snowstorm]

13 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Same old for the reliable time frame the normal tease thrown up in lala land. I'm already thinking one of the mildest January's on record if not the mildest could well be a possibility this early on.

It doesn't look very mild to me. Uppers are below zero most of the time. Temps between 6 and 10C whilst boring and zonal is certainly not record breaking mild

[Sunny76]

Our folks in Latvia said it turned mild since New Year’s Eve with 10c quite widely, and we were there only a week ago with -3 to 3c at best. 
 

Looks like Riga will be back in the chiller come Wednesday with temps barely scraping 0c and -8 daytime by Friday.

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

It doesn't look very mild to me. Uppers are below zero most of the time. Temps between 6 and 10C whilst boring and zonal is certainly not record breaking mild

I agree. It’s nowhere near record breaking. Last new year was much milder over our shores before it turned colder into the first week of January.

[Jason M]

Nothing record breaking in our part of the world yet. I do think the key word here is 'yet' though. With the persistence of heights to our south its just a matter of time before we tap into something very warm for the time of year. 

[weathercold]

45 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Why not though? We all chase cold FI charts which rarely come off, currently nothing is showing cold but why should that be correct? We have strat warming, MJO into phase 7 and other factors as mentioned above. 
The only thing fir me not screaming chances later Jan is the METO long range , which is hopefully wrong

FI on this run is quite interesting with the build of heights to our east and elongated PV!! 
We need some good ENS runs now 

Admire the optimism here but despite a few desirable FI charts it’s a bland outlook.

Whilst I appreciate this is a forum for discussing model data we also need to be realistic and make fair evaluations based on evidence. Aside from a few toasty strat charts it’s pretty grim for cold. If you’re looking for cold and snow we are miles away sadly.

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Nothing record breaking in our part of the world yet. I do think the key word here is 'yet' though. With the persistence of heights to our south its just a matter of time before we tap into something very warm for the time of year. 

I think there is just as much chance of something record breaking coming from the north.

 

[johnholmes]

Things do change in the models and the actual weather; on the right is the predicted chart for that date by NOAA

 

meteorology is a funny old sod at times, it loves throwing egg on faces, I've experienced my fair share

Edited January 2, 2023 by johnholmes
to add words

[johncam]

14 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Admire the optimism here but despite a few desirable FI charts it’s a bland outlook.

Whilst I appreciate this is a forum for discussing model data we also need to be realistic and make fair evaluations based on evidence. Aside from a few toasty strat charts it’s pretty grim for cold. If you’re looking for cold and snow we are miles away sadly.

Aye a few thousand, we have also lost the PM shots thst were showing up a few days ago 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, johncam said:

Aye a few thousand, we have also lost the PM shots thst were showing up a few days ago 

At least you have the Highlands not so far away, which up until now at least have avoided the dross, most other parts of the UK have endured!

[Dignity]

1 minute ago, Don said:

At least you have the Highlands not so far away, which up until now at least have avoided the dross, most other parts of the UK have endured!

Last couple of days east coast of Scotland has gotten bitter again. Looking to the models for an easterly now though! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

At least you have the Highlands not so far away, which up until now at least have avoided the dross, most other parts of the UK have endured!

models downgraded though for his area, dropping the PM air, not really a downgrade for us

[Ali1977]

There is a fair amount of blocking at T336 in the latest GEFS, it’s not all in the same place but may indicate a change!! 
 

Some examples below. Deep FI may have more. 

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Ali1977

[swfc]

According to the live forecast just now "absolutely know sign of any cold weather and the warmth across Europe to continue.

[ANYWEATHER]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There is a fair amount of blocking at T336 in the latest GEFS, it’s not all in the same place but may indicate a change!! 
 

Some examples below. Deep FI may have more. 

 

At T+336 ! If only.....

[Don]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

According to the live forecast just now "absolutely know sign of any cold weather and the warmth across Europe to continue.

What live forecast?

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

According to the live forecast just now "absolutely know sign of any cold weather and the warmth across Europe to continue.

I wouldn’t trust a forecast made by someone who can’t even spell the word no

[Don]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

At T+336 ! If only.....

Typical in a mild winter!