Model Output Discussion - Into February

[seabreeze86]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Gfs 18z looking slightly flatter. Not much in it though. 

 

Very slightly but more importantly it’s nothing like the UKMO 

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Gfs 18z looking slightly flatter. Not much in it though. 

 

Looks on par with the gem, so probably a more realistic evolution than the 12z, plenty of time for adjustment however.

Fine margins as always 

 

Edited January 31, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[blizzard81]

Just now, seabreeze86 said:

Very slightly but more importantly it’s nothing like the UKMO 

There was no way the pub run was going to backtrack to the ukmo extent. Tomorrow's runs will be critical. 

[blizzard81]

Funny how that mild wedge always has our name on it lol. 

[Guest]

A shift in the wrong direction if it's a bitter easterly that you are after.  18z GFS 156 hrs:

I think deep down we all know what the morning will bring...

Edited January 31, 2023 by Guest

[Ali1977]

There seems to be enough heights being pushed NE from the Atlantic to keep the trough away, therefore allowing WAA to re-enforce the Scandy high 

 

Which means, the cold will reach the U.K. we need upgrades now though 

Edited January 31, 2023 by Ali1977

[January Snowstorm]

The 12z gfs was only barely getting far enough North with its Scandi ridge. The 18z is a move in the wrong direction with too much energy going over the top. I don't like the look of it, I personally think it's going to be a bust on its first attempt!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs going down the same route,not quite as good as 12z but similar

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:

A shift in the wrong direction if it's a bitterly easterly that you are after.  18z GFS 156 hrs:

I think deep down we all know what the morning will bring...

The form horse would certainly say that. At least it can't be dragged out much further than tomorrow. The critical juncture is relatively short term. 

[January Snowstorm]

11 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

A shift in the wrong direction if it's a bitter easterly that you are after.  18z GFS 156 hrs:

I think deep down we all know what the morning will bring...

I very much agree. I think this episode has already been decided with too much energy over the top. The gfs, best of the bunch, has already started its backtrack 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Funny how that mild wedge always has our name on it lol. 

Not sure why that chart makes me chuckle slightly?! 

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I very much agree. I think this episode has already been decided with too much energy over the top. The gfs, best of the bunch, has already started its backtrack 

To be expected really though.

[tight isobar]

Out of bed- ya “wouldn’t kick it”!. And the lowering of heights in reasonable reliable sync time.. should have ya wondering .. this is a REAL poke notion within the nxt 5/8 day formats... keep em coming!!

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Not sure why that chart makes me chuckle slightly?! 

To be expected really though.

Oh but you do know why Don

[Purga]

16 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

There was no way the pub run was going to backtrack to the ukmo extent. Tomorrow's runs will be critical. 

How many times have we heard this !

[Don]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Oh but you do know why Don

Well ok.....yes!  Think the weather Gods are trying to tell us something!!  

[Purga]

16 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Funny how that mild wedge always has our name on it lol. 

By the look of it - it's called being shafted.

[Lukesluckybunch]

What are people complaining about,18z is setting up to be fantastic.a true easterly forming at 216

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

How many times have we heard this !

I didn't type that with tongue in cheek - Honest! . I do actually think on this ocassion though, due to the timeframe, tomorrow is rather important. 

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Well ok.....yes!  Think the weather Gods are trying to tell us something!!  

[Battleground Snow]

Regardless of the initial push of heights and subsequent scandi high orientation, the teleconnections and atmosphere seem primed for blocking to the north and north east.

Remember those Mjo composites are based on the entire month anomaly not just a short week snap. So there could be reloading of the pattern as we move through Feb 

Edited January 31, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

What are people complaining about,18z is setting up to be fantastic.a true easterly forming at 216

Exactly. Gfs has this. What could possibly go wrong?

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Exactly. Gfs has this. What could possibly go wrong?

Haha...but temps of 2-4c it's hardly mild either 

[blizzard81]

A couple of things in my head tonight. Firstly, I think the ecm op may have backtracked a little too much away from an easterly. Secondly, I wouldn't be too shocked to see some significant upgrades on tomorrow morning's runs. 

[Daniel*]

The direction of travel is cold!

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A couple of things in my head tonight. Firstly, I think the ecm op may have backtracked a little too much away from an easterly. Secondly, I wouldn't be too shocked to see some significant upgrades on tomorrow morning's runs. 

I think I agree with this.  My take on the pub run is that you can read it two ways.  One, it is what you would expect if it was doing its usual baby steps backtrack to the ECM.  Two, is that it is another run out of basically the same stable as the 12z, given run to run variation.  Too early to tell which yet, but looking at the 18z T234 and the ECM at T240, there are massive differences in the fate of the vortex:

The ECM has this strong vortex moving lock stock and barrel eastwards, which just doesn’t look right to me, whereas the GFS has it rather disintegrating.  I think both models are probably wide of the mark, and would suggest, given the differences early on, that there is far too much uncertainty to back either.  So yes, could be upgrades or downgrades tomorrow…

[Ali1977]

Day 7 control is