Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[matt111]

3 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Most of your daily weather observations are exactly the same as mine 99% of the time.

Guess that's living on the south coast for you  

[Don]

7 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Sun, cloud, wind, super heavy rain. Lovely finally some REAL weather instead of grey sheets of depression!

The 'sneeze' season will be here soon! 

Edited March 24, 2023 by Don

[MP-R]

23 hours ago, Dark Horse said:

Not a true one. Certainly one is WSW and another is clearly a slacker chart without a lot of wind. We've had a bit of a gusty SW/SSW'ly lately and this strength and direction accentuates the rain shadow over Cheshire created by the Welsh mountains. A WSW doesn't have as much as an effect. Rain gets over the mountains more easily.

As above… those are southwesterlies. Not long fetch ones admittedly but they are southwesterlies. No way around that.

[Azazel]

Dire really.

Spent the last 3 days in Exmoor where it alternated between gale force winds and wet. I must’ve seen the sun for a combined 15 minutes this month.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Don said:

The 'sneeze' season will be here soon! 

It's already started for me.

[Don]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

It's already started for me.

I've escaped it so far but it's a fricking nuisance!!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I had hayfever for a few years up until 2020 when covid came along. Funny how it stopped around the same time.

Edited March 24, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, Azazel said:

Dire really.

Spent the last 3 days in Exmoor where it alternated between gale force winds and wet. I must’ve seen the sun for a combined 15 minutes this month.

Yup hardly anything in Hants. Roll on April ...

[matt111]

Well today turned out nice and sunny nearly all day, it's been so long since that last happened I can't remember when it was.

[Sunny76]

Came back from Munich yesterday evening and it felt colder when coming out of Heathrow.

I guess those few degrees make all the difference. Yes we had some cooler days, but it didn’t feel as damp.

Mind you, I think we were lucky down there, as the weather is turning in Munich this weekend and it’s back to being very cold for a time next week, only 5-7c on Monday there.

[Nick L]

This morning's GFS is utterly vile. This first half of spring is shaping up to be one of the worst I can remember if that comes off. I don't mind it not being warm, but it hasn't even been interesting down here!

[Penrith Snow]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

This morning's GFS is utterly vile. This first half of spring is shaping up to be one of the worst I can remember if that comes off. I don't mind it not being warm, but it hasn't even been interesting down here!

Surely it can't be any worse then thus mornings ECM!

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

This morning's GFS is utterly vile. This first half of spring is shaping up to be one of the worst I can remember if that comes off. I don't mind it not being warm, but it hasn't even been interesting down here!

At least we lose the SWlies on the GFS 00z.

Early April looks cold on that but the northerlies, here at least, should bring brighter and less damp weather. Somewhat reminiscent of 1994, that had a very Atlantic-dominated March (though not quite as dull and damp as this one) then the winds turned more northerly. However would prefer not to see a repeat of spring 1994 as May was dull and cool.

The ECM00z is an utter disaster though, really hope that one doesn't come off. The most Atlantic-dominated first half of spring for many, many years if that comes off.

I am encouraged by the variability of what the models are showing for early April, as at least it indicates there's a fair chance of a change of some sort happening. And the weather at the moment is so bad that just about any change would be welcome.

But this March will certainly be the worst since 1981, if not before.

May and the summer had better be good, that's all I can say.

A bad late spring - summer period would now be an utter disaster.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

13 hours ago, al78 said:

 Once we have some MPs that are as psychotic as Donald Trump, we'll vote them in and become unbeatable in the poorness league table.

Judging by some of the rants of serving MPs in the media and on Twitter, I think we already do, don't we?

Edited March 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Came back from Munich yesterday evening and it felt colder when coming out of Heathrow.

I guess those few degrees make all the difference. Yes we had some cooler days, but it didn’t feel as damp.

Mind you, I think we were lucky down there, as the weather is turning in Munich this weekend and it’s back to being very cold for a time next week, only 5-7c on Monday there.

Proper spring weather though. Dry and sunny then very cold. Better than the endless dull, damp southwesterlies we've endured for the past two weeks.

It's rare to reach BST and not "feel" like spring, though it's happened increasingly frequently in the past 10 years. Happened in 2013 (for different reasons) and 2018, and this year it will happen again. A bizarre combination of post-7pm sunsets yet still feeling like autumn (if mild) or winter (if cooler). Contrast that to some years, such as 2009 and 2012, when it felt like spring around Feb 21st, due to a transition from cold weather to milder but settled weather in both years, which then hung around throughout March.

 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[Azazel]

10 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I had hayfever for a few years up until 2020 when covid came along. Funny how it stopped around the same time.

I’ve had hayfever since I was little (38 now) - I caught covid and haven’t had hayfever since. Last summer I didn’t get hayfever despite going out of my way to walk in long grass etc. 

There does seem to be some evidence that covid does weird things to our immune systems.

[Scorcher]

14 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Out of interest, when was the last March to fail to hit 20C. 

I'd have thought the vast majority of Marches in history have failed to record 20C.

I have no statistics in front of me right now but the average date of the first 20C must be well into April.

 

[Summer8906]

2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I’ve had hayfever since I was little (38 now) - I caught covid and haven’t had hayfever since. Last summer I didn’t get hayfever despite going out of my way to walk in long grass etc. 

There does seem to be some evidence that covid does weird things to our immune systems.

OT but I haven't had a bad cold since early 2020 - except Covid, which for me resembled a bad cold. Have had lots of very, very minor "sub-cold" things though, the sort of things where you feel very, very slightly rough but not enough to feel ill, as such. Hope it stays that way!

[Summer8906]

9 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'd have thought the vast majority of Marches in history have failed to record 20C.

I have no statistics in front of me right now but the average date of the first 20C must be well into April.

 

Indeed, it's not the lack of 20C this month but the persistence of southwesterlies, dullness, total rainfall, and high number of rain-days which will make this March exceptional.

Can even happen that April fails to reach 20C; IIRC 2021, 2012 and 2006 were all recent examples.

Latest 20C in recent times was, I think, 1983 when it wasn't reached until May 31. So we narrowly avoided a May which failed to reach 20C (IIRC). Spring 1983 was of course utterly appalling, the worst of my lifetime, though March not nearly as bad as this one; April and May were the worst relative to normal.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[richie3846]

Unless April turns notably cold, we can expect to see very early leafing of trees this year. I suggest that while this March hasn't been great from a subjective perspective, it has turned out more fortunate for nature. There's now water in the ground ready for warmer days, and soil temperatures are higher than average. With a very weak cool spell coming up, and a return to very mild weather immediately afterwards, I consider it a good start to mid spring. I've noted in previous warm springs that trees go into leaf mode from about mid April. Any cold weather in April will of course slow things down again. 

Hoping it stays fairly mild so I can sow some seeds in the veg plot

[Summer8906]

7 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

Unless April turns notably cold, we can expect to see very early leafing of trees this year. I suggest that while this March hasn't been great from a subjective perspective, it has turned out more fortunate for nature. There's now water in the ground ready for warmer days, and soil temperatures are higher than average. With a very weak cool spell coming up, and a return to very mild weather immediately afterwards, I consider it a good start to mid spring. I've noted in previous warm springs that trees go into leaf mode from about mid April. Any cold weather in April will of course slow things down again. 

Is that the case though? In my local area nature is definitely not ahead of itself, but rather "about normal" at best. There's a couple of cherry (I think) trees just down the road which tend to come out earlier than the rest, and in 2019, 2020 and 2022 were definitely out by this stage in the year.

This year, the pink one is half-out, the white one is yet to come out. I'd say things are at a similar stage to 2021 at this point in the year.

Plum blossom was relatively late too.

The key factors, I think, have been many frosts during the second half of winter, plus persistent and exceptional dullness during March, with what is looking like only three days of significant sunshine for the entire month (2nd, 14th, and if forecasts are correct, 27th).

The general "look" is still decidedly one of late winter, even though we're now into the final week of March. I definitely remember many years when nature was further ahead than this by now. Mildness is not the whole story I suspect; nature requires benign, calm, sunny weather also to bring things on, and that has been in exceptionally short supply recently.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[richie3846]

3 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Is that the case though? In my local area nature is definitely not ahead of itself. There's a couple of cherry (I think) trees just down the road which tend to come out earlier than the rest, and in 2019, 2020 and 2022 were definitely out by this stage in the year.

This year, the pink one is half-out, the white one is yet to come out. I'd say things are at a similar stage to 2021 at this point in the year.

Plum blossom was relatively late too.

The key factors, I think, have been many frosts during the second half of winter, plus persistent and exceptional dullness during March, with what is looking like only three days of significant sunshine for the entire month (2nd, 14th, and if forecasts are correct, 27th).

The general "look" is still decidedly one of late winter, even though we're now into the final week of March. I definitely remember many years when nature was further ahead than this by now. Mildness is not the whole story I suspect; nature requires benign, calm, sunny weather also to bring things on, and that has been in exceptionally short supply recently.

I don't believe trees and bulbs etc have any receptors for sunlight etc. The trigger for growth from dormancy is a lot to do with soil temperature, and not calm sunny weather, though that helps when things are already out if course. The early blossoms were pegged back as early March was colder than average. Soil temperatures move more slowly than the weather, especially deeper down. In this area the soil temperature is the warmest at this sage for a number of years. It takes a number of days of cold weather to undo that baked in warmth, so unless things turn cold, watch out for a sudden bloom of activity in the natural world! So in brief, there is a lag, and the mild nights, and days in the second half of March may contribute to a sudden greening of our bare trees in mid April.

COSMOS-UK |

COSMOS.CEH.AC.UK

Current and historic soil temperatures are available on this website, I was perusing the data before I wrote this post.

 

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

My gut feeling is for a 2018 style April this year. There will be a continuation of the unsettled theme seen during this month, before turning much warmer and more settled around mid month.

I also think May this year will be predominantly anticyclonic.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Nick L]

Regarding leaf growth, I remember in 2021 it took until May for leaves to really come out due to the cold. 

[Summer8906]

31 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I don't believe trees and bulbs etc have any receptors for sunlight etc. The trigger for growth from dormancy is a lot to do with soil temperature, and not calm sunny weather, though that helps when things are already out if course.

I've always found that surprising for somewhere like the UK, where temperature is not necessarily a good indication of season but light level is. I'd have expected north-western European species to be primarily responsive to light level and day length, as these are the reliable indicators of season. Adopting a strategy of responding to temperature can easily be "fooled" by years in which midwinter is mild then late winter cold (1983 being a very good example).

31 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

The early blossoms were pegged back as early March was colder than average. Soil temperatures move more slowly than the weather, especially deeper down. In this area the soil temperature is the warmest at this sage for a number of years. It takes a number of days of cold weather to undo that baked in warmth, so unless things turn cold, watch out for a sudden bloom of activity in the natural world! So in brief, there is a lag, and the mild nights, and days in the second half of March may contribute to a sudden greening of our bare trees in mid April.

Personally I'm hoping this does not happen too much, at least while this dull, damp, unsettled spell is ongoing. It really would be a great shame if we see peak spring flowering before this unsettled spell is done with us, that would risk significantly impacting upon our enjoyment of spring.

I'm rather hoping instead, if that is the case, that the more sustained cold spell (shown on the GFS 00z for example) does come off, to slow nature down a little - followed immediately after by some calm settled weather in which we can actually enjoy spring.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Summer8906