Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[ANYWEATHER]

Some people would like heatwaves all summer ,a lot of people wouldn't.  As I said in my earlier post this morning , the Atlantic looks like reawakening from its slumber,  still could be hot at times during short lived episodes ,but cooler spells look just as likely too....watch this space...

[Daniel*]

Noting trend for more mobility and lower pressure the EPS has actually brung it a little forward this evening, now to near end of a June instead of early July. It wouldn’t surprise me if June features best weather of summer, my research of previous El Niño summers back to 1950 identified this tendency for summers to be more front loaded. Quite a few of these had thundery August’s including 1982 and 1997 the summers seem to be more unstable in contrast to neutral ENSO, where many of our classic summers are in these conditions. Including: 1976, 1983, 1990, 2003, 2006, 2018. I never identified a single classic El Niño summer. Historically underwhelming. Maybe it will have something in common with 2015?

 

Edited June 16, 2023 by Daniel*

[Man With Beard]

LolThis is where just looking at the anomalies leads into error - the NOAA tonight:

You might instinctively look at the red lines, consider it to represent high pressure and think we'll be under a block.

But the lines to look at are the green ones - the ones representing the actual 500mb flow. This show everything is coming from the west, and the narrowness of the lines to the west of the UK suggests the flow won't be that slack. So it's absolutely not a blocked pattern. Slightly raised heights to the SE means slightly more settled towards that part of the country, but wall to wall sunshine unlikely to last more than a day or two during this period.

[ancientsolar]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Cooler maybe but not cool, what with the record high North Atlantic temperatures?  I think there is no getting away from near or above average temperatures even during unsettled spells ATM?

I still have that question in my mind, - What does a warmer North Atlantic do for our weather, - are the models able to pick it up ? 

[bluearmy]

 

after ec46 has been so consistent on next week, the month changeover is posing a question for it 

[Don]

10 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

I still have that question in my mind, - What does a warmer North Atlantic do for our weather, - are the models able to pick it up ? 

Difficult to know exactly as we are in unchartered waters (excuse the pun!) so to speak.  My guess would be Atlantic low pressure systems more intense and at the same time more humidity?

[JayAlmeida]

As doom and gloom as it's been with peoples interpretations of today's data the ECM clusters provide a little bit of positivity this evening

[Don]

2 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

As doom and gloom as it's been with peoples interpretations of today's data the ECM clusters provide a little bit of positivity this evening

I don't really get the doom and gloom as the weather has been exceptional for June and comfortable for most.  I think after a short lived blip, late June and July at least will be another warm and possibly dry month.

[Weather26]

25 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

Let's hope we don't get the summer equivalent of what happened 6 months ago.  A decent winter cold snap lasted from around Thursday 8th to Saturday 17th December.  The output was for cold to return after the predicted 'mild blip' around 18th to 21st or so... look what happened for 4 weeks after

A decent summer heatwave is occurring from Thursday 8th June to Saturday 17th June.  The models seem to very slowly be backing away from heat returning.. 

Just for fun, but you see where I'm going with this..

Yep-we seem to be going from the heat coming back Next Friday to a week's worth of showers from this Sunday onwards.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

No time to post charts but the gfs18z is alot better going forward regarding pressure building/dryer weather. Worth a look this evening. 

[clark3r]

Just looked at the 0z gfs the outlook remains warm, quite a few days mid twenty’s in the south, again FI the chance of hot weather, I note this keeps getting pushed back though. 

[Earthshine]

GFS 0z ends with extremely hot air perilously close to UK shores.  If that cut off low was any further west we'd be looking at 40°C being challenged again for the start of July.  Extreme heat is likely to build into Iberia so any plume setup will be far hotter than usual IMO

[mb018538]

Have to say that's a really disappointing ECM. Any weak ridging building is quickly flattened out. No total washout, but what looked promising in the output, anomalies and extended model runs looks to be potentially going down the pan.



A role reversal in terms of temperatures though - eastern areas will fare best in this westerly flow, so staying pretty warm here into the mid 20s, whereas mid to high teens maxima expected in western areas.

[danm]

Quick scan of the models this morning.

GFS:

From Wednesday, it looks largely very nice for the SE quadrant. Lots of warm, sunny and dry weather here, whilst the further north and west you go there is more of an Atlantic, low pressure influence giving cloud and rain at times but also sunny and warm weather for Thursday and Friday as the high extends north before retreating back a little further to the south.

UKMO:

An improving picture from the south from Wednesday, extending to most by Friday. It only goes out to Saturday morning by which time the fine weather becomes a mainly England and Wales affair.

ECM:

Similar to the UKMO in that things improve from Wednesday, extending up north to most for Friday. From the weekend, any fine weather is reserved for the south as that low extends across the north and flattens the high. By Tues the 27th we’re under a mean westerly flow, so possibly back to average temperatures and sunny spells likely only in the south with more unsettled weather further north. However that is still a way off.

So for the SE quadrant, things looking pretty good from Wednesday out into early the following week at least. As you move further north and west there will be some fine weather too but it will be a lot more changeable with cloud and rain at times.

Edited June 17, 2023 by danm

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Have to say that's a really disappointing ECM. Any weak ridging building is quickly flattened out. No total washout, but what looked promising in the output, anomalies and extended model runs looks to be potentially going down the pan.



A role reversal in terms of temperatures though - eastern areas will fare best in this westerly flow, so staying pretty warm here into the mid 20s, whereas mid to high teens maxima expected in western areas.

I was actually quite pleasantly surprised with temperatures - next Friday to Sunday look quite hot for England with high 20s likely for some, and as the temperature charts don't look that different to ones we saw during the past week, a fair chance 30C will be reached somewhere too if the charts verify. Obviously not as hot during the coming week in general but still above average, low or occasionally mid 20s. But I accept it's flatter than the forecasts of a few days ago. It does seem the way with D10 modelled pulses of heights from the SW when they are up against the jet - they often seem to get watered down a touch, and northern areas in particular go from a settled to a less settled scenario.

[Summer8906]

58 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I was actually quite pleasantly surprised with temperatures - next Friday to Sunday look quite hot for England with high 20s likely for some, and as the temperature charts don't look that different to ones we saw during the past week, a fair chance 30C will be reached somewhere too if the charts verify. Obviously not as hot during the coming week in general but still above average, low or occasionally mid 20s. But I accept it's flatter than the forecasts of a few days ago. It does seem the way with D10 modelled pulses of heights from the SW when they are up against the jet - they often seem to get watered down a touch, and northern areas in particular go from a settled to a less settled scenario.

Worrying is the large area of cooler temperatures to the SW, reaching as far east as the Sussex coast. Given it's not a fundamentally cool airmass, that would suggest a lot of dull and perhaps drizzly weather in southern coastal counties; 26C in East Anglia is about as much use to us here as 26C in Poland or the northeastern USA!

The dreaded tropical maritime, never good for us. Not in summer, and not in winter.

A sadly typical temperature profile for the past 15 years, which, due from what I can see to an increased incidence of SW-lies and decreased incidence of NW-lies in summer, have frequently seen the quite-nearby continent roasting, East Anglia getting decent warm temperatures and sunshine at times, but central southern England under permanent cloud and damp.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[Polar Maritime]

Lots of posts above belong in the Summer thread please. Model Discussion only in here the you all.

[sheikhy]

I think its time to accept that things are gona be much more average now and we aint gona have the long dry sunny spell we had recently!!latest gfs 06z has the high hardly getting in!!!shame considering it looked for all money this was going to be a blip but ah well!!temps still remain warm by the way!!

[IDO]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I think its time to accept that things are gona be much more average now and we aint gona have the long dry sunny spell we had recently!!latest gfs 06z has the high hardly getting in!!!shame considering it looked for all money this was going to be a blip but ah well!!temps still remain warm by the way!!

Hi. Yes, the displaced Azores High is being forecasted by the GFS to come home, pushing the trough-ridge pattern east, which translates to a flatter profile for the UK:

GFS 06z, D0-8^^^

I am unsure that is a long-term synoptic as the upstream trigger is the Pacific High.

[mb018538]

 

GFS is really starting to get interested in this tropical system. GEM and ECM don't even show it at all.

By 270 hours the 6z has it scooped up by the Jetstream and heading our way. NOAA give this a 70% chance of development, so it's one to watch.

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, IDO said:

Hi. Yes, the displaced Azores High is being forecasted by the GFS to come home, pushing the trough-ridge pattern east, which translates to a flatter profile for the UK:

GFS 06z, D0-8^^^

I am unsure that is a long-term synoptic as the upstream trigger is the Pacific High.

Quite a few longer range forecasts were suggesting a more unsettled spell 3rd week June and into July at least.

Yes too early to call whether and I will say it we've seen the best chance of nationwide prolonged dry weather in UK for some time, or just a shorter blip.

Im always banging on about summer base state often settles in around the solstice, i.e. the northern hemisphere typically settles into its summer groove, some years its a blocked one, other years bring the ridge/trough pattern- more mixed, others the cyclonic low after low southerly jet..

If this is the case this year, it will be the middle ground scenario, ridge/trough, driest warmest sunniest further south and east, sometimes UK wide settled, but also changeable with a few plumes in the mix. Something for everyone, but not what we've just experienced for same length. We've had an exceptional 6 dry weeks. 

Edited June 17, 2023 by damianslaw

[mushymanrob]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

No- this June actually has a chance of being warmer than 1976...

sorry, it hasnt... June 1976 CET was 17c... and that included a long stretch in the last week with 30c+ . We are not going to get that now this year (now next weeks potential heatwave/plume is currently off the table).
June 1976 has 6 daily temperature records standing, with no more extreme heat predicted on the charts - that too will not be topped this year
Junes 1976's top temps were over 35c... again theres no sign of that in the current charts.

Going off current outputs i cannot now see June beating 1976... But one year 1976's records will be broken, as we are a degree or so warmer now...

[danm]

GFS 6z a variation on a theme, but trending to a flatter outlook at times, most Azores ridging into the SE as expected, so best weather here. More of a traditional SE/NW pattern looking likely over the next 10 days or so. 

[kold weather]

So a couple of points:

1: Temperatures will go above what you'd typically expect from a pattern, remember the atlantic is utterly roasting and our portion we are watching is generally at record warmth, and so I'd expect even fairly bland looking set-ups to deliver above average temperatures fairly comfortably.

2: Best steer clear of long range forecasts right now, the system in the tropical atlantic is extraordinarily early and I'd normally not consider such a system but the Main development region is literally warmer than most August's  right now, so a cape verde system has to be taken at least somewhat seriously.

3: Typically in El Nino developing you'd slowly expect the subtropical jet stream to exert more and more influence in the pattern. I have on twitter and I think here referenced 1957 before as a possible match given how rapidly the ENSO developed that year. Great June but the rest not so much...

With all that being said I think the general theme from the models of flattening things out is maybe the right one. It probably remains warmer than normal for most. It doesn't have the look 'disaster' written all over it , just a classic looking summer pattern, which is ok. Probably a textbook NW-SE split for the first time in a long time in summer with low pressure flirting closer to the NW probably bringing some needed frontal rain up there.

The wildcard is 92L, any major development and recurve into the jet will throw a stronger ridge towards the UK with a more southerly component to the wind as per the GFS 06z. Remains the be seen.

edit - @mushymanrob it has every chance of beating 1976, I've just calculated that the northern most station that is used averages 16.8c in the next 10 days using the latest GFS. We only need 17.0 and so that is well within striking distance given a real lack of cooler air coming into the CET zone on the models today. Your underestimating just how overhot the Atlantic is compared to normal right now...it won't take much to get much above normal temperatures...

Edited June 17, 2023 by kold weather

[bluearmy]

14 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

LolThis is where just looking at the anomalies leads into error - the NOAA tonight:

You might instinctively look at the red lines, consider it to represent high pressure and think we'll be under a block.

But the lines to look at are the green ones - the ones representing the actual 500mb flow. This show everything is coming from the west, and the narrowness of the lines to the west of the UK suggests the flow won't be that slack. So it's absolutely not a blocked pattern. Slightly raised heights to the SE means slightly more settled towards that part of the country, but wall to wall sunshine unlikely to last more than a day or two during this period.

Wouldn’t expect a notable upper ridge to show on a day 11 mean chart across several models though ??

what that shows is mid Atlantic trough and a propensity to ridging to our east and southeast. The largest eps cluster doesn’t agree btw. As I alluded in my ec46 post from last night, later week 2 and into week 3 are looking uncertain - we’ve been through a period where the models have looked solid for week 2 into 3.  seems normal service is resumed!