Autumn 2023

[Frigid]

28 minutes ago, cheese said:

Indeed. We had a low of -1.2C in May 2020. Colder than anything in October for the past decade. 

Same here, it got down to -3.5C in May 2020.. colder than anything in the previous winter, except the first few days of Dec 2019. People remember the warmth and sun of May 2020, but often forget how cold it was during the 2nd week. 

In regards to October, you have to go way back to 2008 to find a lower temperature. 

[Summer8906]

On 21/08/2023 at 20:30, baddie said:

My predictions are :
A dry September, with 30c around the 10th-15th, and a warm and sunny end. Some T-Storms collecting a lot of rain
A warm-hot start to Ocotber, with 26c around the 5th, then followed by an impressive October storm, allowing a months worth of rain to fall. The last two thirds would be anticyclonic and sunny, with temperatures fluctuating between 10c and 18c by day, and some cold, foggy nights
A sunny start to November, with temperatures around 12c, then a mild and unsettled middle, though with a couple dry spells. The end would become colder, with some sunny days, and some foggy days failing to exceed 5c. Some frosty nights

Nice, can we have this, please?

[Summer8906]

8 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Ironic you say 2021 was a good year for colours and I thought it was a very poor year here locally, though nothing compared to last year in which there was practically none at all. The best year for colours I remember is hands down 2016. I think the warmth, then dry weather, then cold weather created the perfect recipe. Ive never seen such vivid and beautiful colours locally as 2016. 

I remember 1992, 2003 and 2010 being notably good.

The one thing all three had was a significant cold spell in October. Only 2003 had a good summer though, 1992 being poor and 2010 average.

On the other hand I remember some years, such as 2005 and 2006, being particularly poor. The trees didn't turn until late due to mild weather, and then, IIRC, windy weather later on blew all the leaves off rather suddenly.

So overall, perhaps dry and settled Octobers with some cold spells are best, and mild, wet and windy autumns the worst.

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Summer8906

[Emz by the Thames]

Pumpkins on my allotment are nearly ripe, a little earlier than usual. About 3 weeks to go I reckon.

I love autumn regardless of what the summer has been like. I'm selfishly hoping it's not cold because at some point in the coming months the windows and boiler will be replaced!

[Summer8906]

On 21/08/2023 at 22:40, damianslaw said:

Just a hunch that this might be a notably stormier Autumn than the very quiet recent ones. The warm SSTs will create an active jet aligned to temp differentials between the tropics and poles. Its been notably windy recently, not a feature of August normally. 

Question is where will the jet end up, might be meridional, loopy meaning strong temp contrasts from time to time, if recent synoptics prevail. Could be an interesting Autumn with a lot of changeability, much like the last few weeks.

We shall see, watch us end up with long anticyclonic spells a feature of recent Autumns!

Mind you, was autumn 2022 quiet? I seem to remember that being very unsettled indeed from mid October to almost the end of November, with a long sequence of very deep lows and very heavy rain at times. The only properly settled spell throughout autumn was about 10 days from mid-September. Also some strong winds, but no named storms because, IIRC, they were named by France first, being on a southerly track. The Halloween storm stands out as very notable, and there were several other events notable for heavy rain.

Likewise, autumns 2019 and 2020 were distinctly disturbed once we got to late September, and October 2021 had three spells, IIRC of very cyclonic, and very windy at times, weather.

What we are overdue, I think, is a settled autumn, particularly October, with the last one to produce below average rainfall in the south being 2018. We're also overdue one with frosty spells. Certainly in my experience, the overriding impression of recent autumns is towards mild but dull and wet, sometimes very wet. We did have a quieter period from 2015-2018, though.

Would be quite an anomaly if we had a changeable/disturbed autumn after the changeable/disturbed July and August, it's rare for a poor summer to be followed by a poor autumn. 1992 was perhaps, kind-of a bit like that, but it was pretty blocked from mid-September to late October, the October being an interesting mostly cold and dry one and some warm spells in mid-late September.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Summer8906

[BruenSryan]

24 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I remember 1992, 2003 and 2010 being notably good.

The one thing all three had was a significant cold spell in October. Only 2003 had a good summer though, 1992 being poor and 2010 average.

On the other hand I remember some years, such as 2005 and 2006, being particularly poor. The trees didn't turn until late due to mild weather, and then, IIRC, windy weather later on blew all the leaves off rather suddenly.

So overall, perhaps dry and settled Octobers with some cold spells are best, and mild, wet and windy autumns the worst.

 

I was only a little one in 2003 but reportedly, that was a horrendous autumn colour season here as the severe frosts in October 2003 brought down all the leaves in one single night. I'd sacrifice that though for the incredible thunderstorms, mountain blizzards Dublin had and outstanding Halloween geomagnetic storms.

Hard to believe this was October here. Bullseye right for me.

[Summer8906]

On 20/08/2023 at 14:40, damianslaw said:

I also find September the least interesting month weather wise. Extreme conditions are at there least likely. Conversely it is a month when the weather rarely gets in the way of anything and therefore our most benign month. I often find I view the models least in September. Can be very trying for weather enthusiasts, Autumn often doesn't gain a foothold until after the equinox. 

I'd probably say a bit later, November perhaps being the least interesting.

November is the only month in which summer-like temperatures and snow both have a very low chance of occurring. Indeed, I've never experienced 21C in November, and I've only experienced settling snow twice in my lifetime, IIRC (1980 - which was cheating a bit as I was staying with a friend at 200 metres above sea level - and 2010).

September can still be warm and sunny, and summer-like thundery outbreaks are still possible.

Conversely, I'd rate April and May as the most interesting, April being the only month which I have seen all of heavy settling snow, 25C+ temps, and summer-style thunderstorms in lowland southern England.

Most unpleasant, on the other hand, in southern England is December, the combination of dull, mild Atlantic weather and ridiculously short days producing a very trying experience most years. There are exceptions, such as 2001, 2005 and 2010, but these are sadly increasingly rare - most Decembers since 2011 being varying levels of rubbish.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

20 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

I was only a little one in 2003 but reportedly, that was a horrendous autumn colour season here as the severe frosts in October 2003 brought down all the leaves in one single night. I'd sacrifice that though for the incredible thunderstorms, mountain blizzards Dublin had and outstanding Halloween geomagnetic storms.

Hard to believe this was October here. Bullseye right for me.

I remember the night-time thunderstorms on the 22nd in southern England near Bournemouth, as illustrated on the map.

An extremely interesting month (as were 1992 and 2010, as it happens). Started a bit non-descript before a warm sunny spell arrived just before mid-month. This then became colder by night but still sunny, before a northerly outbreak occurred around the 19th. This produced standard autumn northerly weather for much of the time (sunny, frosts) but an embedded low (polar low?) increased convective activity for a while, notably on the 22nd.

1992 had a very similar northerly spell, also featuring a similar embedded low producing overnight thunderstorms on almost the same date (overnight Mon 19-Tues 20, IIRC) which also followed a benign fine spell earlier in the month.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

What would do me for autumn:

September and October to be extremely like the same months in 2003.

November to be like 1985 (which I have a surprisingly bad memory of).

[damianslaw]

On 22/08/2023 at 07:54, Atleastitwillbemild said:

I was a kid during the early 90's when we had a run of unusually cold autumns with frost so I just assumed they were normal when in fact they weren't. When I hit my teenage years I was quite surprised by the very wam ones that occurred and even more bemused by the tropical ones of the 00's. I still keep comparing any autumn we have now to the ones I remember from the early 90's. Even though statistically they were anomalous. I remember scraping thick frost off the walls and seeing trees almost bare by late October and have been disappointed by anything less ever since. 

1992 and 1993 were indeed cold Autumns. October 92 and 93 brought notable frosts, and the fells had some decent snow cover. I used to expect first hard frost by mid October and first snow on the fells by late October. Now I don't expect first notable frost until mid November or significant snow on fells until end of November.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

1992 and 1993 were indeed cold Autumns. October 92 and 93 brought notable frosts, and the fells had some decent snow cover. I used to expect first hard frost by mid October and first snow on the fells by late October. Now I don't expect first notable frost until mid November or significant snow on fells until end of November.

We are lucky to get a frost even during the winter these days.

[baddie]

7 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

We are lucky to get a frost even during the winter these days.

Horror Show Winter (No frosts, No sun, No cold, Just rain and wind)

December 2015
January 2014
February 2022

Imagine that

Edited August 25, 2023 by baddie

[Weatherman_93]

I remember mid October 1993 being rather frosty for a few nights.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Weatherman_93 said:

I remember mid October 1993 being rather frosty for a few nights.

Yes Shap went down to -9 degrees, many a January doesn't deliver anything close to that. 

[Weatherman_93]

20 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes Shap went down to -9 degrees, many a January doesn't deliver anything close to that. 

Yeah i had a paper round and remember wearing a hat & gloves from early October and beyond back in the early 90s!

[Frigid]

I'd love to experience an Autumn like 1992/93, what fascinates me with those years is the October's. CET of 7.7C and 8.3C for October is unheard of these days, and the fact they happened right after each other is notable. Since then it's been largely mild with a few exceptions.. 2019 was the last time it truly felt like Autumn.

Hoping for something similar to 2019, but ideally a September 2015, October 1993, November 2010 

[Summer8906]

12 minutes ago, Frigid said:

I'd love to experience an Autumn like 1992/93, what fascinates me with those years is the October's. CET of 7.7C and 8.3C for October is unheard of these days, and the fact they happened right after each other is notable. Since then it's been largely mild with a few exceptions.. 2019 was the last time it truly felt like Autumn.

Hoping for something similar to 2019, but ideally a September 2015, October 1993, November 2010 

Are you sure you mean 2019? From about September 21st onwards the weather was utterly horrendous - dull and wet with barely any settled spells - and not especially cold or frosty, at least in my part of the world.

On the other hand Sep 2015, Oct 1993 and Nov 2010 had their moments. For an ideal autumn with the constraint that it must be cold, though, I'd probably say Sep 1986, Oct 1992 and Nov 1993.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

13 hours ago, baddie said:

Horror Show Winter (No frosts, No sun, No cold, Just rain and wind)

December 2015
January 2014
February 2022

Imagine that

The ultimate horror show winter has surely got to be 2019/20. Worst of my lifetime. Others were milder - but drier. Others were wetter - but less dull. 2019/20 was the "perfect" mix of mild, dull and wet.

[B87]

A 2003 style autumn, and infact entire year would please everyone.

[markyo]

10 minutes ago, B87 said:

A 2003 style autumn, and infact entire year would please everyone.

It certainly would not! One of the deadliest on record

Edited August 25, 2023 by markyo

[B87]

Just now, markyo said:

It certainly would not!

Chilly but sunny January with deep snowfall, then a springlike March-May, a summery June-August, a sunny, cool autumn and December?

[markyo]

3 minutes ago, B87 said:

Chilly but sunny January with deep snowfall, then a springlike March-May, a summery June-August, a sunny, cool autumn and December?

Its that middle bit....June-August. Worst widespread heatwave in decades

[B87]

Just now, markyo said:

Its that middle bit....June-August. Worst widespread heatwave in decades

It was about 5 days of extreme heat in August. There weren't any extreme days in June or July.

[markyo]

1 minute ago, B87 said:

It was about 5 days of extreme heat in August. There weren't any extreme days in June or July.

I was referring to the widespread effect, 72000+ extra deaths across Europe

[B87]

4 minutes ago, markyo said:

I was referring to the widespread effect, 72000+ extra deaths across Europe

The 2010 winter had far more excess deaths here (27000) han the 2003 summer did (2000), so if we are going down that route, lets hope we never have a winter like that again.