Autumn 2023

[jam]

any mid term forecasts out for Mid Sept yet?

Four days in the Borders on a golfing trip. Last two years have been lovely weather wise 

[Somerset girl]

I love September sunshine , love the windy days , love the fruits and flowers my daughter's birthday.  

As to what kind of an autumn we will get who knows ?! But I'll enjoy it . I'm not a fan of October mind you . But September,  yes it's fab. 

 

[Atleastitwillbemild]

On 31/07/2023 at 19:16, Seasonal Trim said:

Just one month to go and we'll be entering the season of harvest and wonder. Golden colours and frosty fingers. Fog rolling in across the meadow and logs burning on the fire.

Summer's been a no show so far this year. Let's hope Autumn greets us with all its glory.   

Frost ? In Autumn?! We're lucky to get one of those in January!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

September next week !!! Not long now before the BBC Countryfile weathermen start mentioning: "a chance of ground frosts in some isolated Scottish glens"

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

September next week !!! Not long now before the BBC Countryfile weathermen start mentioning: "a chance of ground frosts in some isolated Scottish glens"

I always find that between mid August and Christmas the year tends to really speed up - even more so as one gets older. It's ridiculous that September is less than a fortnight away.

[cheeky_monkey]

Autumn has defiently started here already..had 2 frosts over the weekend and already have widespread foliage colour change 

[cheese]

10 hours ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

Frost ? In Autumn?! We're lucky to get one of those in January!

Air frosts have become really uncommon in October now. The last time we had a low below freezing in October here was 2012. Over a decade!! Air frosts in May are more common. 

Edited August 21, 2023 by cheese

[Dark Horse]

3 minutes ago, cheese said:

Air frosts have become really uncommon in October now. The last time we had a low below freezing in October here was 2012. Over a decade!!

Wow really? had October air frosts here in 2017, 2018 & 2019. It can generally be a good place for actual cold. And we got down to -11c last December.

But you'll get the snow whilst we'll be in some weird rain/snow shadow. Funny place this is over this side of the hills.

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

Wow really? had October air frosts here in 2017, 2018 & 2019. It can generally be a good place for actual cold. And we got down to -11c last December.

But you'll get the snow whilst we'll be in some weird rain/snow shadow. Funny place this is over this side of the hills.

I was mistaken - we had a low of -0.3C in October 2019. Completely overlooked it. But that’s still the only air frost in October over the past decade. October 2017 and October 2018 came close with lows of 0.3C. 

I would say this isn’t a good location for low minimums at all and last December was a good example of that. But we usually do well for snow compared to most lowland places. 

Edited August 21, 2023 by cheese

[baddie]

My predictions are :
A dry September, with 30c around the 10th-15th, and a warm and sunny end. Some T-Storms collecting a lot of rain
A warm-hot start to Ocotber, with 26c around the 5th, then followed by an impressive October storm, allowing a months worth of rain to fall. The last two thirds would be anticyclonic and sunny, with temperatures fluctuating between 10c and 18c by day, and some cold, foggy nights
A sunny start to November, with temperatures around 12c, then a mild and unsettled middle, though with a couple dry spells. The end would become colder, with some sunny days, and some foggy days failing to exceed 5c. Some frosty nights

[baddie]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

I was mistaken - we had a low of -0.3C in October 2019. Completely overlooked it. But that’s still the only air frost in October over the past decade. October 2017 and October 2018 came close with lows of 0.3C. 

I would say this isn’t a good location for low minimums at all and last December was a good example of that. But we usually do well for snow compared to most lowland places. 

Nottingham recorded 2 frosts in October 2018 
-0.2c on the 29th
-1c on the 31st

[damianslaw]

Just a hunch that this might be a notably stormier Autumn than the very quiet recent ones. The warm SSTs will create an active jet aligned to temp differentials between the tropics and poles. Its been notably windy recently, not a feature of August normally. 

Question is where will the jet end up, might be meridional, loopy meaning strong temp contrasts from time to time, if recent synoptics prevail. Could be an interesting Autumn with a lot of changeability, much like the last few weeks.

We shall see, watch us end up with long anticyclonic spells a feature of recent Autumns!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just a hunch that this might be a notably stormier Autumn than the very quiet recent ones. The warm SSTs will create an active jet aligned to temp differentials between the tropics and poles. Its been notably windy recently, not a feature of August normally. 

Question is where will the jet end up, might be meridional, loopy meaning strong temp contrasts from time to time, if recent synoptics prevail. Could be an interesting Autumn with a lot of changeability, much like the last few weeks.

We shall see, watch us end up with long anticyclonic spells a feature of recent Autumns!

I have a hunch because it's an el niño we could see some 1987 features and 1987 was an el niño episode.   

[Atleastitwillbemild]

13 hours ago, cheese said:

Air frosts have become really uncommon in October now. The last time we had a low below freezing in October here was 2012. Over a decade!! Air frosts in May are more common. 

I was a kid during the early 90's when we had a run of unusually cold autumns with frost so I just assumed they were normal when in fact they weren't. When I hit my teenage years I was quite surprised by the very wam ones that occurred and even more bemused by the tropical ones of the 00's. I still keep comparing any autumn we have now to the ones I remember from the early 90's. Even though statistically they were anomalous. I remember scraping thick frost off the walls and seeing trees almost bare by late October and have been disappointed by anything less ever since. 

[Atleastitwillbemild]

On 18/08/2023 at 08:57, Azazel said:

lmao no.

The leaves have been turning here since mid July and it definitely wasn't "heat stress"

Wind up post surely?

I take particular notice each year, of when trees begin to change and what species turn first before the others, etc. Last year was the latest I have ever seen them change in my 40 years of life and they were still green in some parts in December, until that cold spell finally froze them off. 2010 was the most spectacular colour show I've ever seen this country display. At least in my part of the world (North Wiltshire). I'm really not sure why. September was quite ordinary that year but we had a very cold week in October towards the end and it just seemed to set the countyside on fire in a way I've never seen before or since. Interestingly it was followed by THAT December. 2017 was a year the trees turned very early and put on a good show. Every single explanation I read about why the colours change claim its dictated purely by reducing sunlight levels and this only. But I know from my own lifetime of observations that this isn't true. Cold weather really does produce more red colours and makes them turn quicker. 

I usually get a fairly good idea which was its going to go by the first week of September. Horse Chestnut doesn't count as it always reliably turns the last week of August no matter what the weather, but among our natives: Birch, Hornbeam, Hawthorn, Lime (or Linden), and Rowan are the first to turn. If they don't show any signs of colour in that first week of September then I know it will be another crap, semi-tropical autumn. Ash never puts on a show. Oak and Beech are glorious but turn very late (except in 2010 when they were on fire by the end of October) This year I have definitely seem some early tunring. Was it the chilly nights we had a week ago? The Limes are already yellow and the Hornbeam is going that way. Birch and Rowan are still green.

[HafrenLMP1]

2 hours ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

I was a kid during the early 90's when we had a run of unusually cold autumns with frost so I just assumed they were normal when in fact they weren't. When I hit my teenage years I was quite surprised by the very warm ones that occurred and even more bemused by the tropical ones of the 00's. I still keep comparing any autumn we have now to the ones I remember from the early 90's. Even though statistically they were anomalous. I remember scraping thick frost off the walls and seeing trees almost bare by late October and have been disappointed by anything less ever since. 

I had a morning paper round from 1985-1987; I got a surprise in late September 1986 when I woke up to frost for 2-3 days; papers to deliver and cold hands.....

[BruenSryan]

4 hours ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

I take particular notice each year, of when trees begin to change and what species turn first before the others, etc. Last year was the latest I have ever seen them change in my 40 years of life and they were still green in some parts in December, until that cold spell finally froze them off. 2010 was the most spectacular colour show I've ever seen this country display. At least in my part of the world (North Wiltshire). I'm really not sure why. September was quite ordinary that year but we had a very cold week in October towards the end and it just seemed to set the countyside on fire in a way I've never seen before or since. Interestingly it was followed by THAT December. 2017 was a year the trees turned very early and put on a good show. Every single explanation I read about why the colours change claim its dictated purely by reducing sunlight levels and this only. But I know from my own lifetime of observations that this isn't true. Cold weather really does produce more red colours and makes them turn quicker. 

I usually get a fairly good idea which was its going to go by the first week of September. Horse Chestnut doesn't count as it always reliably turns the last week of August no matter what the weather, but among our natives: Birch, Hornbeam, Hawthorn, Lime (or Linden), and Rowan are the first to turn. If they don't show any signs of colour in that first week of September then I know it will be another crap, semi-tropical autumn. Ash never puts on a show. Oak and Beech are glorious but turn very late (except in 2010 when they were on fire by the end of October) This year I have definitely seem some early tunring. Was it the chilly nights we had a week ago? The Limes are already yellow and the Hornbeam is going that way. Birch and Rowan are still green.

Cold weather can also make trees lose them all in one night! It's finely balanced as with a lot of things in life.

The best years of recent times in Dublin were definitely 2013 and 2021. Both years shared similar evolutions of weather - cold springs, though of course overall 2021 wasn't nearly as cold as 2013, which delayed the onset of growth. Chlorophyll has a particular lifespan before being lost so I see this as a starter sign of maybe autumn colours will later be seen. The rainfalls of October 2013 and 2021 helped the leaves to stay in good condition with no worries of drought despite dry summer spells. Then cooler nights later in the autumns helped the chlorophyll to be destroyed more rapidly but nothing severe as to destroy it all instantly. Both autumns also tended to have a lack of strong winds, wasn't really affected by the Judes Day storm here in 2013.

So as a result of autumns like these, when I see them not turning early and a late onset of spring, I tend to take it as a positive for a spectacular display of autumn colours by November. 2022 was an exception, that was horrific. I hardly seen any colours thanks to the lack of cold nights and persistent windy conditions through October and November. I guess the very early growth of spring also didn't help. 

Some of the colours here in 2021, no enhancements. Sure it's hardly New England but pretty damn good for here!

[Atleastitwillbemild]

3 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

Cold weather can also make trees lose them all in one night! It's finely balanced as with a lot of things in life.

The best years of recent times in Dublin were definitely 2013 and 2021. Both years shared similar evolutions of weather - cold springs, though of course overall 2021 wasn't nearly as cold as 2013, which delayed the onset of growth. Chlorophyll has a particular lifespan before being lost so I see this as a starter sign of maybe autumn colours will later be seen. The rainfalls of October 2013 and 2021 helped the leaves to stay in good condition with no worries of drought despite dry summer spells. Then cooler nights later in the autumns helped the chlorophyll to be destroyed more rapidly but nothing severe as to destroy it all instantly. Both autumns also tended to have a lack of strong winds, wasn't really affected by the Judes Day storm here in 2013.

So as a result of autumns like these, when I see them not turning early and a late onset of spring, I tend to take it as a positive for a spectacular display of autumn colours by November. 2022 was an exception, that was horrific. I hardly seen any colours thanks to the lack of cold nights and persistent windy conditions through October and November. I guess the very early growth of spring also didn't help. 

Some of the colours here in 2021, no enhancements. Sure it's hardly New England but pretty damn good for here!

I don't know why I have never thought to take photos for comparrison year to year! Although judging by the way our climate is going I should probably start looking for spontaneous growth of palm trees. Thanks for sharing those. A glorious display! That looks like a row of London Planes by the canal which are usually incredibly dull when they turn so a good autumn show indeed!

[cheese]

On 22/08/2023 at 13:14, BruenSryan said:

Cold weather can also make trees lose them all in one night! It's finely balanced as with a lot of things in life.

The best years of recent times in Dublin were definitely 2013 and 2021. Both years shared similar evolutions of weather - cold springs, though of course overall 2021 wasn't nearly as cold as 2013, which delayed the onset of growth. Chlorophyll has a particular lifespan before being lost so I see this as a starter sign of maybe autumn colours will later be seen. The rainfalls of October 2013 and 2021 helped the leaves to stay in good condition with no worries of drought despite dry summer spells. Then cooler nights later in the autumns helped the chlorophyll to be destroyed more rapidly but nothing severe as to destroy it all instantly. Both autumns also tended to have a lack of strong winds, wasn't really affected by the Judes Day storm here in 2013.

So as a result of autumns like these, when I see them not turning early and a late onset of spring, I tend to take it as a positive for a spectacular display of autumn colours by November. 2022 was an exception, that was horrific. I hardly seen any colours thanks to the lack of cold nights and persistent windy conditions through October and November. I guess the very early growth of spring also didn't help. 

Some of the colours here in 2021, no enhancements. Sure it's hardly New England but pretty damn good for here!

I personally remember 2012 being a good year for autumn foliage. Here’s a few photos I took in October 2012 around Temple Newsam park in Leeds

Edited August 23, 2023 by cheese

[Cheshire Freeze]

I noted how late the trees were to turn last year. I remember thinking to myself at one point that they may as well just keep their leaves through to the spring.

[B87]

November 2011 was very good for autumn colours. 

The best time for it here is usually the first half of November.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Out with the hound in the half-light at 05:20 this morning, only 11c and with a beautiful autumnal mist rising off the River Stour.

 

Sunrise not until 06:06 - a full 1hr and 20mins later than the solstice. 

[LetItSnow!]

On 22/08/2023 at 13:14, BruenSryan said:

Cold weather can also make trees lose them all in one night! It's finely balanced as with a lot of things in life.

The best years of recent times in Dublin were definitely 2013 and 2021. Both years shared similar evolutions of weather - cold springs, though of course overall 2021 wasn't nearly as cold as 2013, which delayed the onset of growth. Chlorophyll has a particular lifespan before being lost so I see this as a starter sign of maybe autumn colours will later be seen. The rainfalls of October 2013 and 2021 helped the leaves to stay in good condition with no worries of drought despite dry summer spells. Then cooler nights later in the autumns helped the chlorophyll to be destroyed more rapidly but nothing severe as to destroy it all instantly. Both autumns also tended to have a lack of strong winds, wasn't really affected by the Judes Day storm here in 2013.

So as a result of autumns like these, when I see them not turning early and a late onset of spring, I tend to take it as a positive for a spectacular display of autumn colours by November. 2022 was an exception, that was horrific. I hardly seen any colours thanks to the lack of cold nights and persistent windy conditions through October and November. I guess the very early growth of spring also didn't help. 

Some of the colours here in 2021, no enhancements. Sure it's hardly New England but pretty damn good for here!

Ironic you say 2021 was a good year for colours and I thought it was a very poor year here locally, though nothing compared to last year in which there was practically none at all. The best year for colours I remember is hands down 2016. I think the warmth, then dry weather, then cold weather created the perfect recipe. Ive never seen such vivid and beautiful colours locally as 2016. 

[reef]

On 21/08/2023 at 18:31, cheese said:

I was mistaken - we had a low of -0.3C in October 2019. Completely overlooked it. But that’s still the only air frost in October over the past decade. October 2017 and October 2018 came close with lows of 0.3C. 

I would say this isn’t a good location for low minimums at all and last December was a good example of that. But we usually do well for snow compared to most lowland places. 

They've almost become extinct here nearer to the coast. The last October air frost here was in 2008.

The first half of November has seen similar. Since 1997 there have only been 9 individual air frosts here before 17th November.

May hasn't shown the same decline which makes sense I suppose, as its latent heat in Autumn (and more of it these days).

[cheese]

1 hour ago, reef said:

They've almost become extinct here nearer to the coast. The last October air frost here was in 2008.

The first half of November has seen similar. Since 1997 there have only been 9 individual air frosts here before 17th November.

May hasn't shown the same decline which makes sense I suppose, as its latent heat in Autumn (and more of it these days).

Indeed. We had a low of -1.2C in May 2020. Colder than anything in October for the past decade.