Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Pretty good from ECM 12Z op at 240 hours ahead I'd say.    

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

If that's good then we are getting desperate to be honest. A brief ridge before the deepening low to the northwest heads in. Charts looking more autumnal than anything.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

If we look at it though in a broad minded way @mb018538that ECM chart is an improvement on yesterday.   We have to see if the predicted AAM upswing can be a game changer.  

[Addicks Fan 1981]

@Tidal Waveat this stage i don't think we can assume anything and if the ensemble mean can back it a bit then its not too bad.   

[Djdazzle]

People discussing the intricacies of day ten charts. Will they ever learn?

The ECM Is a slght improvement. Baby steps.

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Well at least next weekends low remains rather flabby with hopefully no wind issues....!

So delightful to see the UK the only place to be covered by green snot on this side of the globe

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

People discussing the intricacies of day ten charts. Will they ever learn?

The ECM Is a slght improvement. Baby steps.

Come to think of it the GFS 12Z op is a bit of a concern at 384 hours ahead, but you have to ask yourself hard questions of whether that disaster chart will verify.   

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Elaborating to my above post is the ensemble mean doesn't back that horrendous op chart at 384 hours ahead from GFS.    GFS op was an outlier within that time range.   

Just seen the ECM 12Z ensemble mean chart and it's an improvement on the 00Z in the sense it doesn't have north westerly winds on it.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

Edited July 15, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

People discussing the intricacies of day ten charts. Will they ever learn?

The ECM Is a slght improvement. Baby steps.

So where is the baby steps

[DavidHR]

Just wanted to say hi to everyone on here. I've been a lurker for probably 5 years and this is my first post!  This is the thread that keeps bringing me back, and I've enjoyed the highs and the lows of model watching along with your comments. It seems I've joined at a particularly low point at the moment, but it's still a pleasure to be here nonetheless! 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

cherry picking 

[MP-R]

38 minutes ago, DavidHR said:

Just wanted to say hi to everyone on here. I've been a lurker for probably 5 years and this is my first post!  This is the thread that keeps bringing me back, and I've enjoyed the highs and the lows of model watching along with your comments. It seems I've joined at a particularly low point at the moment, but it's still a pleasure to be here nonetheless! 

Welcome!

On the plus side, it can really only get better from here.

[Man With Beard]

There were more members like this on the ECM ensembles at D14 than the mean would suggest:

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Thank you very much @Man With Beardfor sharing it.  Unfortunately though its not translating to our forecasts as things stand.  Wonder also if GLAAM has risen a bit too lately as our friend @MattHillustrated?   

[joggs]

Watch out for the sw low with the ahead ridge starting to get modelled in the next 3-5 days. No heatwave,but things to become more settled in the extended.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 minutes ago, joggs said:

Watch out for the sw low with the ahead ridge starting to get modelled in the next 3-5 days. No heatwave,but things to become more settled in the extended.

We will get out of this rut, but we need the AAM rise first and to get rid of these pesky Greenland high pressure areas.   

Feels as though Iceland are having better weather than us currently because although we are in a niño our weather is behaving more akin to a niña event as part of our lull.  

There are signs tentatively that heights towards Greenland are dropping on mean runs but the op runs need to be on board as if it were.   

[Derecho]

14 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I said weeks ago once you get this pattern established it will last for weeks! Unfortunately I was ridiculed for my genuine thoughts.  I think we wil lbe ploughing into August the same way that July has been.....

Problem with those with those who were writing off July at the start of the month is that there is not enough skill in any of the models to be able to make a prediction that far out. We can get a good handle of trends at times 2 weeks in advance but even a broad pattern may deliver different conditions at the surface if key features are slightly displaced.

I could say there will be a strong northerly in mid-August and a pattern akin to August 2014 but this is the model output discussion thread and we all know such a prediction is a stab in the dark. It could be awful in mid-August or we could have a heatwave.

Just because you made a prediction far in advance that came off doesn't make you a good meteorologist. A broken clock strikes right twice a day. You deserved to be ridiculed for it.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Derecho

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Is there any signs of any sunny and dry weather on any models this rain is so depressing haven’t had sun for 2 weeks New Gfs doesn’t look good either 

[Bristawl Si]

8 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Problem with those with those who were writing off July at the start of the month is that there is not enough skill in any of the models to be able to make a prediction that far out. We can get a good handle of trends at times 2 weeks in advance but even a broad pattern may deliver different conditions at the surface if key features are slightly displaced.

I could say there will be a strong northerly in mid-August and a pattern akin to August 2014 but this is the model output discussion thread and we all know such a prediction is a stab in the dark. It could be awful in mid-August or we could have a heatwave.

Just because you made a prediction far in advance that came off doesn't make you a good meteorologist. A broken clock strikes right twice a day. You deserved to be ridiculed for it.

Hmm.....

Maybe heading that way, though

[Addicks Fan 1981]

15 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Problem with those with those who were writing off July at the start of the month is that there is not enough skill in any of the models to be able to make a prediction that far out. We can get a good handle of trends at times 2 weeks in advance but even a broad pattern may deliver different conditions at the surface if key features are slightly displaced.

I could say there will be a strong northerly in mid-August and a pattern akin to August 2014 but this is the model output discussion thread and we all know such a prediction is a stab in the dark. It could be awful in mid-August or we could have a heatwave.

Just because you made a prediction far in advance that came off doesn't make you a good meteorologist. A broken clock strikes right twice a day. You deserved to be ridiculed for it.

What we need going forward is the features I've mentioned along with some other posters on here and am I correct in thinking op runs are 3 or 4 days behind the mean runs? 

Think @MattHwill be able to help me with that as he has the skill like yourself and some other forumites here, actually i think he's ahead of some people here, offers balance and calm here too.   

What I have seen emerge today is the ensemble mean charts want to lower heights to Greenland, but the op charts aren't even slightly remotely interested and I don't think the GFS op charts have handled things very well at all today, well not as well as they could do.    

Think our next CCKW will make a lot of difference as well as the MJO becoming more active and more coherent.  The vital things we need at this time of the year which currently seem suppressed.    

Edited July 15, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Addicks Fan 1981]

3 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

Is there any signs of any sunny and dry weather on any models this rain is so depressing haven’t had sun for 2 weeks New Gfs doesn’t look good either 

If I'm honest the mean will possibly reject the idea and think the GFS isn't handling things all that well as things stand.   

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Hmm.....

Maybe heading that way, though

Yeah I think the output is becoming consistent enough now to say the chances of a heatwave over the next two weeks are low. I think the heat over North Africa and the southern Med is to blame. Anomalous heat in these areas often coincides with a strong jet, kinda reminds of summer 2015...

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Derecho said:

Yeah I think the output is becoming consistent enough now to say the chances of a heatwave over the next two weeks are low. I think the heat over North Africa and the southern Med is to blame. Anomalous heat in these areas often coincides with a strong jet, kinda reminds of summer 2015...

I'm defo not knowledgeable enough to comment about whether "heat over North Africa and the southern Med is to blame", but all i know is

that the seasonal LRFs and general pre-Summer consensus for July are currently playing catch up (i'm being kind).

[IPredictASnowStorm]

End of the gfs run showing warmth only got to wait another 15 days

[Derecho]

2 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

I'm defo not knowledgeable enough to comment about whether "heat over North Africa and the southern Med is to blame", but all i know is

that the seasonal LRFs and general pre-Summer consensus for July are currently playing catch up (i'm being kind).

They haven't been good for July to say the least, it's as if the pattern materialised during June instead and whatever mechanism leading towards those models predicting a hot July has now gone as a result.

Though we shall see, August may produce something different.

I think there is definitely some skill in long range forecasting for winter but in the summer I don't have any confidence at all... and this comes from my 3 years working in meteorology. I think because of the nature of the work I did, I focus far more on the next 10 days anyway.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Derecho

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Think the seasonal LRFS only are experimental anyway and signals often lead whatever output we have.  It's to do with whatever prevailing winds we have and this month so far it has attracted easterly winds when we haven't wanted them over the hovmollers dateline.  

It's part of our natural lull though that has been mentioned on this site in the other model thread and natural lulls do happen, even June 1997 and July 2009 had lulls in them which are natural and not unusual in niño like summers at all.   

The next three days I think will be crucial of where we go forward with everything really, I do reckon the met office though are struggling currently and what they have to me is backdated information say like from 2 or 3 days ago.   

Am no expert on everything, just an enthusiast just like everyone here, but I do have the ability to pick things up and soforth.