Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Mike Poole]

2 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Without the Euro HP we’re in the game. With lower European heights we don’t need strong heights to the N, wedges will do.

In fact the above scenario could actually be snowier for many.

I agree, this is a common theme across the models, it has crossed my mind that if the southerly jet theme continues, there is a scenario that brings much snow if temperatures are the right side of marginal.  

39 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Credit via Twitter from (Glacier Point?) i think. 

Basically shows that the Euro is forecasting a higher than average probability of SSW.

You would kind of expect this in a El Niño, eQBO year.  Interesting that GloSea6 doesn’t see above average probabilities.  

All in all, happy with the seasonals, theme is for blocking of some sorts becoming more likely January onwards (whether down to a SSW or not) details to be decided, and the models differ on the details.  

I also haven’t given up on December, I think the current pattern is interesting and different enough for something surprising to crop up this side of Christmas.  

Edited November 10, 2023 by Mike Poole

[LRD]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

December doesn't look too bad for cold/snow prospects, cold and cyclonic at times, with the north at least tapping into colder air at times. Most models are suggesting a continuation of the predominantly unsettled conditions that we have by and large had since late June, through Dec at least. 

Yeah, possibly. I think in your location you'll have a good chance if that Dec chart verifies. Might be that Dec gets cooler/colder as the month goes on if the jet stays south of us, which might be good timing for wintry weather in the festive season. As others have said as soon as pressure anomalies over Europe are shown lower than normal we have a chance. Remembering that they are only anomalies and not necessarily indicating especially low pressure over Europe 

Edited November 10, 2023 by LRD
For accuracy

[LRD]

2 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Could well be a later, extended winter tbh. I wouldn’t expect spring to start in March this coming year. A strong theme of the seasonals is to carry winter on into March.

Indeed. March looks cold too. A cold March ain't my cup of tea but as long as it's warmed up by Easter I'll live with it. Glosea's March chart

Long way off but that is a potentially wintry March

[Don]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Oh no ... Not that again ...

Why not, I got a lovely snowfall from that in March?! 

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I coined that

The phrase lives on through you Don

It does indeed.... 

[WYorksWeather]

Going to throw in the CFSv2 again. Here are the 700mb height anomalies and surface temperature anomalies.

December has a mild theme to it for definite. That looks like the right setup to draw in a lot of south-westerly influence.

January looks worse on the 700mb heights, but the temperature anomaly is a little lower.

Still nothing useful from a blocking perspective in February either. Perhaps less mild as there is a bit more blocking but it's on the wrong side of Greenland to deliver much for us.

March sees the blocking finally get going. Result, a month showing up as average temperature wise, which is rare to see on the CFS. Probably enough for some decent cold spells especially in the early part of the month. As the month progresses any remaining chances of getting cold fade away.

For completeness sake, April still shows a very blocked pattern, and looks quite cool for the time of year.

Overall, has to be said not a promising outlook. I do wonder whether this could be another pot of gold at the end of the rainbow situation - chasing cold charts that never really materialise and are constantly a couple of months away.

In my view, it's better to have low expectations, that way you're unlikely to be disappointed!

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Such a shame we don't see his posts anymore,big loss  

Agree. His website and blogs have gone stagnant too. Hope he is ok.

[Chesil View]

10 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Going to throw in the CFSv2 again. Here are the 700mb height anomalies and surface temperature anomalies.

December has a mild theme to it for definite. That looks like the right setup to draw in a lot of south-westerly influence.

January looks worse on the 700mb heights, but the temperature anomaly is a little lower.

Still nothing useful from a blocking perspective in February either. Perhaps less mild as there is a bit more blocking but it's on the wrong side of Greenland to deliver much for us.

March sees the blocking finally get going. Result, a month showing up as average temperature wise, which is rare to see on the CFS. Probably enough for some decent cold spells especially in the early part of the month. As the month progresses any remaining chances of getting cold fade away.

For completeness sake, April still shows a very blocked pattern, and looks quite cool for the time of year.

Overall, has to be said not a promising outlook. I do wonder whether this could be another pot of gold at the end of the rainbow situation - chasing cold charts that never really materialise and are constantly a couple of months away.

In my view, it's better to have low expectations, that way you're unlikely to be disappointed!

Low expectations and CFSv2 are two phrases that go very well especially when it comes to any kind of verification

[DavidS]

6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Slp, not heights (pedantically speaking)

 

Noted

[bluearmy]

40 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Agree. His website and blogs have gone stagnant too. Hope he is ok.

His consultancy business is still going - 

[Don]

2 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

Overall, has to be said not a promising outlook. I do wonder whether this could be another pot of gold at the end of the rainbow situation - chasing cold charts that never really materialise and are constantly a couple of months away.

In my view, it's better to have low expectations, that way you're unlikely to be disappointed!

Yes, it's a shame the CFSv2 is being so consistent for the winter season and cannot be ignored, even if it is outnumbered!

Edited November 10, 2023 by Don

[Catacol]

44 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, it's a shame the CFSv2 is being so consistent for the winter season and cannot be ignored, even if it is outnumbered!

It does not have a good handle on vertical developments. Nothing can be ignored, but in a season where chances of a SSW look good I don’t think anyone should lose too much sleep over CFS at 2 or 3 months range.

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Catacol

[Beanz]

3 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

Going to throw in the CFSv2 again. Here are the 700mb height anomalies and surface temperature anomalies.

December has a mild theme to it for definite. That looks like the right setup to draw in a lot of south-westerly influence.

January looks worse on the 700mb heights, but the temperature anomaly is a little lower.

Still nothing useful from a blocking perspective in February either. Perhaps less mild as there is a bit more blocking but it's on the wrong side of Greenland to deliver much for us.

March sees the blocking finally get going. Result, a month showing up as average temperature wise, which is rare to see on the CFS. Probably enough for some decent cold spells especially in the early part of the month. As the month progresses any remaining chances of getting cold fade away.

For completeness sake, April still shows a very blocked pattern, and looks quite cool for the time of year.

Overall, has to be said not a promising outlook. I do wonder whether this could be another pot of gold at the end of the rainbow situation - chasing cold charts that never really materialise and are constantly a couple of months away.

In my view, it's better to have low expectations, that way you're unlikely to be disappointed!

Good job it’s just the CFS I suppose, otherwise I’d be concerned

[WYorksWeather]

32 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It does not have a good handle on vertical developments. Nothing can be ignored, but in a season where chances of a SSW look good I don’t think anyone should lose too much sleep over CFS at 2 or 3 months range.

 

Yeah I'm not making a 'winter is over' post! I just feel better keeping my expectations low and seeing what turns up.

[WYorksWeather]

Just now, Beanz said:

Good job it’s just the CFS I suppose, otherwise I’d be concerned

Yep, CFS is only one model. I just throw it in there because it updates frequently, and all the other models get posted in here anyway.

[summer blizzard]

So it's not the exact one used by the Met Office previously but May-Sep Atlantic SST's apparently indicate a neutral NAO. 

[E17boy]

Hi peeps

latest Met office update going up to 10th December suggesting there is no sign of any prolonged cold weather. Unsettled with wind and rain which is expected at this time of the year 

[Chesil View]

16 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps

latest Met office update going up to 10th December suggesting there is no sign of any prolonged cold weather. Unsettled with wind and rain which is expected at this time of the year 

Standard fare for late Nov early Dec and very much in line with an El Nino easterly QBO back loaded winter.

[Shillitocettwo]

  Here's my current thinking...

 

December 2023 - Not quite 2015 territory but still 2nd warmest with near incessant low pressure systems and storms barrelling in from the Atlantic and south-westerly fetches, which will deliver the first ever 20.C plus day in UK at a staggering 20.1.C. CET 8.6.C and EWP 126mm.

January 2024- This one will break records too, overall a CET of 8.0.C and a very similar Atlantic dominated pattern. A bit less soggy than December at 75mm.

 

 February 2023- Finally something that behaves a bit more like Winter with the incessant Atlantic lows giving way to ridging and even a decent cold week mid month. Some snow as this breaks down with a CET an above average yet feels cold of 5.1.C

 

  If you want proper cold you'll have to wait until March where a nasty SSW event brings a proper chill down from Siberia and the lowest CET of the year at 3.8.C

 

[SqueakheartLW]

55 minutes ago, Shillitocettwo said:

  Here's my current thinking...

 

December 2023 - Not quite 2015 territory but still 2nd warmest with near incessant low pressure systems and storms barrelling in from the Atlantic and south-westerly fetches, which will deliver the first ever 20.C plus day in UK at a staggering 20.1.C. CET 8.6.C and EWP 126mm.

January 2024- This one will break records too, overall a CET of 8.0.C and a very similar Atlantic dominated pattern. A bit less soggy than December at 75mm.

 

 February 2023- Finally something that behaves a bit more like Winter with the incessant Atlantic lows giving way to ridging and even a decent cold week mid month. Some snow as this breaks down with a CET an above average yet feels cold of 5.1.C

 

  If you want proper cold you'll have to wait until March where a nasty SSW event brings a proper chill down from Siberia and the lowest CET of the year at 3.8.C

 

I most certainly hope this doesn't come to pass

Dec 1868 = 7.2C          Jan 1869 = 5.6C          Feb 1869 = 7.5C          Winter 1868/69 = 6.77C

Dec 2023 = 8.6C          Jan 2024 = 8.0C          Feb 2024 = 5.1C          Winter 2023/24 = 7.23C

 

What could be worse than totally smashing the mildest winter on the CET record by a big margin

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Shillitocettwo said:

  Here's my current thinking...

 

December 2023 - Not quite 2015 territory but still 2nd warmest with near incessant low pressure systems and storms barrelling in from the Atlantic and south-westerly fetches, which will deliver the first ever 20.C plus day in UK at a staggering 20.1.C. CET 8.6.C and EWP 126mm.

January 2024- This one will break records too, overall a CET of 8.0.C and a very similar Atlantic dominated pattern. A bit less soggy than December at 75mm.

 

 February 2023- Finally something that behaves a bit more like Winter with the incessant Atlantic lows giving way to ridging and even a decent cold week mid month. Some snow as this breaks down with a CET an above average yet feels cold of 5.1.C

 

  If you want proper cold you'll have to wait until March where a nasty SSW event brings a proper chill down from Siberia and the lowest CET of the year at 3.8.C

 

That would be quite an oddity, March nearly 5 degrees warmer than December. 

 

[SummerShower]

1 hour ago, Shillitocettwo said:

  Here's my current thinking...

 

December 2023 - Not quite 2015 territory but still 2nd warmest with near incessant low pressure systems and storms barrelling in from the Atlantic and south-westerly fetches, which will deliver the first ever 20.C plus day in UK at a staggering 20.1.C. CET 8.6.C and EWP 126mm

20C in December certainly not out of the question if we get 2015 style synoptics.  You just need to look at how unbelievably warm the Atlantic is now.  In 2015 there were actually cold anomalies in the North Atlantic.

Is 20C likely in December?  No, but is it possible? Absolutely.

Edited November 11, 2023 by SummerShower

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, SummerShower said:

20C in December certainly not out of the question if we get 2015 style synoptics.  You just need to look at how unbelievably warm the Atlantic is now.  In 2015 there were actually cold anomalies in the North Atlantic.

Is 20C likely in December?  No, but is it possible? Absolutely.

That's not the latest. Not that warm now a bit of a tripole anomaly has developed. 

[John88B]

I sense a little excitement in the mod thread this morning. I love this time of year as the roller coaster takes off.

With the outlook for early December looking at least seasonal, I think there's a lot to be positive about.

I'm no expert but for what it's worth I think we will see some decent wintry weather for all this year. I could be wrong but if we lived in a country where the weather was certain it would all be rather boring and pointless coming on here.

Anyway best of luck to those of a cold, wintry persuasion and let's hope for a decent ride on this winters roller coaster.

[sebastiaan1973]

A nice and long read https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html

[Met4Cast]

On 05/11/2023 at 10:53, Met4Cast said:

Latest GFS forecasts have significantly upgraded the next WWB in the Pacific in recent runs to perhaps the strongest we’ve seen so far this El Niño. 

 

This injection of westerlies into the wind flow budget should help lead to a more disturbed northern hemispheric jet stream, I.e more amplified. Where? Likely over the Ural Mountains with a trough in the Atlantic/extending into the UK. (Good for vortex pressure, bad if you hate rain)

 

We’ve seen a recent uptick once again in AAM tendency and I suspect another, stronger uptick is coming in the next couple of weeks once those westerlies begin to enter into the equation which will finally send the AAM into positive territory. 

Unfortunately, the MJO forecast remains rather incoherent, the BOM model has an amplified cycle through phases 7-8, other models not quite so keen on this idea. I was hoping we’d see a more concrete signal from the MJO but as such that hasn’t happened, throwing some uncertainty on the forward progression of things. 

Going forward through November I’d expect more in the way of unsettled weather although perhaps not quite as unsettled as we’ve seen of late with the vortex coming under pressure & likely weakening thanks to Ural blocking.

In terms of seasonal models, the lack of consistency between updates doesn’t fill me with confidence in anything they show, so probably better to focus on the sub-seasonal drivers for now  

 

The WWB & likely subsequent AAM response detailed in this thread is currently on-going however the MJO aspect of the above post has failed to materialise with emergence yet again pushed back. 

This suggests to me a broad continuation of the pattern we’re currently seeing with further spells of wet & likely windy weather being thrown our way by a stubborn Atlantic trough. 

Increasing signs of strat/trop coupling as we go through the next couple of weeks too. The idea of a stormier/mild start to winter appears to be gaining traction now.