Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[SqueakheartLW]

47 minutes ago, Don said:

I would be more than happy if that forecast came off as January and early February are better (on average) for decent cold outbreaks/snowfalls IMO than December.

January and February as you say are better for getting cold outbreaks but February isn't always so good in the snowmelt department as the sun is getting a bit too strong.

If you can get decent cold in December I find that better than February with the much weaker sun meaning snow sticks around like in December 2010 for example.

[SqueakheartLW]

Some more decent cold charts appearing in the GFS, GEM and ECM. Unfortunately all of them are over 300 hours away

GFS 18z P03

How about a nice late November Arctic blast to get us started. Would happily take this early start to winter if it turns out to be the teaser for the overall winter pattern.

GFS 18z P14

A nice cold continental feed here would do nicely, especially as it looks like it could be a snow maker with the approaching Atlantic trough.

GFS 00z P14

My favourite of all of the GFS cold options on offer in this selection. A nice early season beasterly here.

GFS 06z P18

Not as good as the opening Arctic northerly but I'd still take this over the usual mild dross we see these days.

GFS 12z P16

A nice cold and frosty option if we can't have one of the more snowy ones above.

GFS 12z P26

Another variation on the cold and frosty theme if we don't get the first one.

GEM 12z P20

GEM only had 1 decent option between the 00z and the 12z and this is it and at least it looks to be quite a decent offering at least with a cold and possibly snowy northerly on offer.

ECM 12z P18

ECM has this northerly on offer to open up and is quite similar to the GEM option above. Are we seeing a common theme here. Is this how November is going to end I wonder.

ECM 12z P22

The much better northerly option of the 2 ECM ones in that it looks more of a set in stone block compared with the first option. I'd take this one to get winter off to a proper start.

ECM 12z P49

ECM's version of cold and frosty here. As this is more or less at the end of the run will this pattern evolve into northern blocking and an extension of the cold or will the usual typical thing happen and the polar vortex will win and turn things mild?

[Cheshire Freeze]

43 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

January and February as you say are better for getting cold outbreaks but February isn't always so good in the snowmelt department as the sun is getting a bit too strong.

If you can get decent cold in December I find that better than February with the much weaker sun meaning snow sticks around like in December 2010 for example.

December snowfall is the holy grail for me. Very little melt.

[Don]

43 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

January and February as you say are better for getting cold outbreaks but February isn't always so good in the snowmelt department as the sun is getting a bit too strong.

If you can get decent cold in December I find that better than February with the much weaker sun meaning snow sticks around like in December 2010 for example.

Snowmelt isn’t too much of an issue early February, but once you get towards mid month it becomes more of a problem.  It then takes something like a BFTE or synoptics like March 2013 to have lasting snow on the ground.

[Mapantz]

16 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

December snowfall is the holy grail for me. Very little melt.

I think that all depends on where you are. It certainly didn't work out like that here in 2010. A few inches of snow fell, then it turned to rain and melted.

[Catacol]

Atlantic triple firming up

and a strange looking Pacific with El Niño sitting underneath a decent -PDO. Will be interesting to see how the two interact. The Atlantic tripole, if it can hang tough, may assist in pulling the storm track south and allow heights to build north once the vortex has done its early season wind up. Seasonals appear to be going with this as winter progresses.

More evidence of a winter colder than many in recent years? Drivers are lining up, once early season Nino blows through. Watch for a rising GWO orbit, an increasingly active MJO and signs of blocking on extended model runs once we get to mid December. Next 4 weeks continue to look westerly and stormy to me. 

Edited November 13, 2023 by Catacol

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I think that all depends on where you are. It certainly didn't work out like that here in 2010. A few inches of snow fell, then it turned to rain and melted.

Yep. Same in Somerset. 2010 didn’t quite do the business on the south coast. Too much latent heat as I remember. 

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Atlantic triple firming up

and a strange looking Pacific with El Niño sitting underneath a decent -PDO. Will be interesting to see how the two interact. The Atlantic tripole, if it can hang tough, may assist in pulling the storm track south and allow heights to build north once the vortex has done its early season wind up. Seasonals appear to be going with this as winter progresses.

More evidence of a winter colder than many in recent years? Drivers are lining up, once early season Nino blows through. Watch for a rising GWO orbit, an increasingly active MJO and signs of blocking on extended model runs once we get to mid December. Next 4 weeks continue to look westerly and stormy to me. 

Might blow itself out second week of Dec, a la 2009!! Many many comparisons. 

[MP-R]

10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yep. Same in Somerset. 2010 didn’t quite do the business on the south coast. Too much latent heat as I remember. 

Marginality wasn’t a problem in Somerset in 2010. In fact the further south into Somerset I went that winter, the better the snow got.

South coast entirely different.

[Chesil View]

9 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I think that all depends on where you are. It certainly didn't work out like that here in 2010. A few inches of snow fell, then it turned to rain and melted.

Very much so Mapantz my experience in Dec 2010 was much different to that which you describe and I was only 9 miles or so down the road from you at the time.

[pinball wizard]

Just opened the curtains over the back door and spotted this fella busily stashing his food. He must have been reading this thread!!

[Norrance]

11 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I think that all depends on where you are. It certainly didn't work out like that here in 2010. A few inches of snow fell, then it turned to rain and melted.

Up here there was 18inches of snow at the peak in early December 2010 and it didn't go until mid January.

[Redbull165]

Hopefully modoki el nino slowly developing. We saw a lot of cooling in the last few days over 1+2 area.

 

Interesting read about MJO index.

 

 

Edited November 14, 2023 by Redbull165

[Premiere Neige]

5 hours ago, Norrance said:

Up here there was 18inches of snow at the peak in early December 2010 and it didn't go until mid January.

Similar levels of snow here. Snow on the ground from 26th November until around 26th/27th December...

[CoventryWeather]

4 hours ago, Redbull165 said:

 

Interesting read about MJO index.

 

 

That's bizarre, as he said in the models thread he expected the Atlantic to dominate in December. He also said the models are 'overamplifying' in the coming days, and expect it to become weaker...

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, CoventryWeather said:

That's bizarre, as he said in the models thread he expected the Atlantic to dominate in December. He also said the models are 'overamplifying' in the coming days, and expect it to become weaker...

I keep thinking of Dec 09..

[Don]

1 hour ago, CoventryWeather said:

That's bizarre, as he said in the models thread he expected the Atlantic to dominate in December. He also said the models are 'overamplifying' in the coming days, and expect it to become weaker...

That's an old tweet from the 3rd November.

[username home]

I see that James Madden from Exacta weather is busy giving the Mirror and Express his usual October/November made up stories.... "600 mile WALL OF SNOW" heading for these shores...

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, username home said:

I see that James Madden from Exacta weather is busy giving the Mirror and Express his usual October/November made up stories.... "600 mile WALL OF SNOW" heading for these shores...

Muppet! 

[CoventryWeather]

32 minutes ago, Don said:

That's an old tweet from the 3rd November.

Understood, only just saw that! Anyways, kind of contradicts himself compared to then. I'm seeing signs of a cold start to December. Think the LRMs might be struggling now. 

[username home]

32 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Muppet! 

Same BS stories this time of year for last decade or so! 

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, username home said:

I see that James Madden from Exacta weather is busy giving the Mirror and Express his usual October/November made up stories.... "600 mile WALL OF SNOW" heading for these shores...

1 hour ago, Methuselah said:

Muppet! 

27 minutes ago, username home said:

Same BS stories this time of year for last decade or so! 

I particularly remember one of these headlines in autumn 2013 saying winter 2013/14 would be the COLDEST and SNOWIEST for DECADES.

Think we all know how that one turned out don't we

[Bristawl Si]

Stormiest, wettest Winter for many many years i reck, with slightly above average temps.

Will quieten down by early Feb, with cooler temps and dry, but nowt to get too excited about in terms of proper cold and snow. Quick flip to mild near that month's end and March to be a cracker, v mild.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

23 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Stormiest, wettest Winter for many many years i reck, with slightly above average temps.

Will quieten down by early Feb, with cooler temps and dry, but nowt to get too excited about in terms of proper cold and snow. Quick flip to mild near that month's end and March to be a cracker, v mild.

 

I wouldn’t bank on it…March looks pretty unanimously cold/wintry on whichever long ranger you look at, even the CFS (which is grim for winter proper).

[SqueakheartLW]

39 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Stormiest, wettest Winter for many many years i reck, with slightly above average temps.

Will quieten down by early Feb, with cooler temps and dry, but nowt to get too excited about in terms of proper cold and snow. Quick flip to mild near that month's end and March to be a cracker, v mild.

 

Hope this puts a jinx on the mild dross we often get and then we can look forward to you getting this wrong and we have the coldest winter for quite a few years, a 2009/10 redux perhaps or another 1995/96 would do fine as well except swapping out the mild weather of January 1996 for the first 20 days of January 2010 instead.

If I wanted a perfect combination of these 2 winters I'd take it as follows

December 2023?

First half of December 1995 followed by Second half of December 2009

January 2024?

First half of January 2010 followed by Second half of January 1996

February 2024?

Have less preferences here as both Februaries saw little snow for me. 2010 had a frontal event early in the month and another one later on in the month. 1996 was cold to start before some snow showers later in the month.

Edited November 14, 2023 by SqueakheartLW