Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[10 Days Away]

22 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Yep, certainly is weird looking at those sunshine total maps but I'm telling you, at least here it's been sunny almost every single day since April.

 

Storms forecast for pretty much everywhere in the next few days...except here!  I think I'm gonna write this season off and look forward to next year!

Still, you never know, maybe the forecast will change slightly with storms from the west moving more eastwards and storms from the east moving more westward. One can only hope.

I'm in Ashford and it wasn't sunshine everyday. It was bleak.

Perhaps I'll move to Bexley del Sol. Looks like you have a great microclimate.

[SilverWolf]

Looking at the various maps posted today, plus the Met Office warning, seems that storms could happen pretty much anywhere in South/Central England and more northern Wales tomorrow… as others have said I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some dramatic storms similar to Northern Ireland yesterday, but I’d only trust the radar through the day tomorrow as to where they will be… I also think some may pop up outside the warning area (which may well expand or move by morning). Have to say not felt humidity like this for some years - the last time I did has the most amazing lightning storm I’ve ever seen, but that was imported from France.. See what occurs! 

[pinball wizard]

There's a very thin line of ppn heading towards the eastern side of central southern england in the channel. It's trying......very trying

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

First visit to the forum for a while!

I'm really missing Convective Weather badly. I'd love to see their maps and write ups for the coming days. I wonder if the rare red would have been used?

I will however look forward to the Netweather storm forecasts which are pretty much up there with Convective Weather, just something about their risk maps made them the best weather p*rn! 

I was due to be in the Lakes on Sunday, but illness has freed me up to chase whatever comes up near the North East. Certainly looks promising but there's so much model variation at the moment. One thing is for sure, I'm very glad I'm not doing the Great North Run on Sunday in this heat and humidity! I'm sure the runners would appreciate a downpour.

[Windblade]

51 minutes ago, TN26 said:

I'm in Ashford and it wasn't sunshine everyday. It was bleak.

Perhaps I'll move to Bexley del Sol. Looks like you have a great microclimate.

Yeah, something like that. I have a friend who lives just south west of Sevenoaks - not too far way, and he has had storm after storm all summer.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Windblade

[StormLoser]

Having crawled out of hospital after a bout of pneumonia (storm watching going well this year, isn't it?) I'm frowning over our Met Office's rather bland yellow-egg-flambe plastered with hardly a care over the centre of the UK.

Saturday GFS and Estofex seem happier with a western-oriented breakdown over north Wales and then into a wider area.

I'm not going to hold my breath for tomorrow (probably best not to, after recent circumstances) so for those of you who see some action, enjoy!

Edited September 8, 2023 by StormLoser

[Tamsin]

7 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Having crawled out of hospital after a bout of pneumonia (storm watching going well this year, isn't it?) I'm frowning over our Met Office's rather bland yellow-egg-flambe plastered with hardly a care over the centre of the UK.

Saturday GFS and Estofex seem happier with a western-oriented breakdown over north Wales and then into a wider area.

I'm not going to hold my breath for tomorrow (probably best not to, after recent circumstances) so for those of you who see some action, enjoy!

I'm sorry to hear about that.  I hope you recover quickly and get an electrical remedy on your doorstep 

[sendandreturn]

You would expect, without coming across as entitled I hope, that with this heat and humidity, there would be some huge breakdown/reset. Very quiet on here I guess symptomatic of not much action forecast off the experts/charts...

 

Maybe things happen when you least expect it in life

[Azazel]

2 minutes ago, sendandreturn said:

You would expect, without coming across as entitled I hope, that with this heat and humidity, there would be some huge breakdown/reset. Very quiet on here I guess symptomatic of not much action forecast off the experts/charts...

 

Maybe things happen when you least expect it in life

Seems to be the way post 2019. Heat just gets shunted away in a burst of drizzle. 

[viking_smb]

9 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Seems to be the way post 2019. Heat just gets shunted away in a burst of drizzle. 

UKV has less tomorrow night than previous runs i've noticed for our neck of the woods i.e south wales and south coast, compared to previous runs

Edited September 8, 2023 by viking_smb

[Azazel]

7 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

UKV has less tomorrow night than previous runs i've noticed for our neck of the woods i.e south wales and south coast, compared to previous runs

Unsurprising. Something has definitely changed meteorologically to make this area a complete dead-zone for storms during summer.

We still usually get the odd thing outside of the summer months but that’s normally during a showery regime 

[viking_smb]

Just now, Azazel said:

Unsurprising. Something has definitely changed meteorologically to make this area a complete dead-zone for storms during summer.

We still usually get the odd thing outside of the summer months but that’s normally during a showery regime 

having said that we had a good storm on a thursday 2 weeks ago in weymouth, forked lightning and had to get the cadets off the water sharpish as we had sailing etc on. but the storm brewed up very quickly without warning though

[ChezWeather]

Arome & UKV both showing some storms over Lincolnshire tomorrow afternoon 

[minus10]

Just now, ChezWeather said:

Arome & UKV both showing some storms over Lincolnshire tomorrow afternoon 

Where's the rest of them ??

[ChezWeather]

8 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Where's the rest of them ??

Posting on mobile isn't the easiest

[minus10]

Just seen the latest met office video and it really is like pulling teeth..with the emphasise on most places staying dry with very isolated storms... where they do occur with the potential to be severe..the humidity and oppressiveness has really got to me today. .its just incredible that there are not more widespread storms as the disturbances move up from the south and the cold front down from the north west...

[pad199207]

Boom!

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

5 minutes ago, pad199207 said:

Boom!

 

The cap has broken!

[minus10]

7 minutes ago, pad199207 said:

Boom!

 

Wow...its quite a loner at the moment..

[SilverWolf]

19 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Just seen the latest met office video and it really is like pulling teeth..with the emphasise on most places staying dry with very isolated storms... where they do occur with the potential to be severe..the humidity and oppressiveness has really got to me today. .its just incredible that there are not more widespread storms as the disturbances move up from the south and the cold front down from the north west...

Is frustrating… right now, where I am, (from what I’ve learnt on here) CAPE is good, lifted index is good, heat is high, humidity high etc.. what is needed that is missing? 

[pad199207]

3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Wow...its quite a loner at the moment..

Certainly is 

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

30 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Just seen the latest met office video and it really is like pulling teeth..with the emphasise on most places staying dry with very isolated storms... where they do occur with the potential to be severe..the humidity and oppressiveness has really got to me today. .its just incredible that there are not more widespread storms as the disturbances move up from the south and the cold front down from the north west...

Its a now cast situation,  in these situations no one really knows, except for the fact there is potential!  Radar watching is the best idea☺

[A.J]

5 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Is frustrating… right now, where I am, (from what I’ve learnt on here) CAPE is good, lifted index is good, heat is high, humidity high etc.. what is needed that is missing? 

no trigger

[Metwatch]

Looking at models this evening, it seems there is some confidence for some scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, sort of across Lincolnshire, north Midlands, south Yorkshire area so that could be chaseable.

For Sunday seems less certain; UKV has stuff starting from Midlands early hours of Sunday  morning and then heading north east, a bit of an awkward time to chase so have to hope that it brings the action to home. Arome does not have this.

Then for Sunday afternoon potentially something over Somerset, Wales, far west Midlands in the afternoon but i'll not worry about that until tomorrow night. Hi res models could easily change quite a bit so not taking it too literally of course, just spitting out my current thinking.

[TJS1998Tom]

6 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Looking at models this evening, it seems there is some confidence for some scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, sort of across Lincolnshire, north Midlands, south Yorkshire area so that could be chaseable.

For Sunday seems less certain; UKV has stuff starting from Midlands early hours of Sunday  morning and then heading north east, a bit of an awkward time to chase so have to hope that it brings the action to home. Arome does not have this.

Then for Sunday afternoon potentially something over Somerset, Wales, far west Midlands in the afternoon but i'll not worry about that until tomorrow night. Hi res models could easily change quite a bit so not taking it too literally of course, just spitting out my current thinking.

Just hope its after 4pm when I finish work for our area if anything happens