Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 v GFS:

Lock and load!  Cross-model agreement, now sit back and enjoy the rest of the run…

[WeatherArc]

 

[seabreeze86]

No longer sleep walking into a Easterly it’s full steam ahead 

[sheikhy]

Fantastic at 120 hours!!!!!!

[Bats32]

Boom!

[Lukesluckybunch]

How about that ECM at 120! Wow

[IanT]

1 minute ago, WeatherArc said:

 

Nailed on, cast iron certainty.

[Metwatch]

@Kasim Awan buried under sleet

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Man the joys of being a cold snowy lover!!!!gfs has lead the way on a different level this week!im seriously impressed with it at this moment in time!!

At least somebody realised I was joking! 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Methuselah

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T120 v GFS:

Lock and load!  Cross-model agreement, now sit back and enjoy the rest of the run…

Off the two I actually prefer ecm.. low clearance better and heights into north west straighter and slightly more umpth to them

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, WeatherArc said:

 

A possibility I mentioned earlier if the pattern moves W.

That shortwave mixes in with some cold air as it crosses with snow to high ground and perhaps some E/SE parts of England.

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, Mucka said:

A possibility I mentioned earlier if the pattern moves W.

That shortwave mixes in with some cold air as it crosses with snow to high ground and perhaps some E/SE parts of England.

This is totals up to T+384 though, don't think it reflects the shortwave moment really

[Mark wheeler]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Surprised how many didn’t trust the ec op to follow it’s 06z run when all the other models are now on the same page 

have some faith !

Been burnt to many times

[nick sussex]

Wow what a day . 

Nothing like the drama of a trigger shortwave .

I think because it’s quite a complex situation with that shortwave and the other shown to the ne we’re going to need to see those modeled within T72hrs .

Overall though some really encouraging outputs for coldies . 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, booferking said:

Lol ukmo prolonged cold spell secured with that chart

Quite a turn up for the UKMO! Shades of Nov 10.

We have had and continue to develop a very dense cold pool over scandi, I think this is becoming the dominant force in our locale.

[Cloud 10]

2 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

At least somebody realise I was joking! 

[The Enforcer]

3 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

@Kasim Awan buried under sleet

Mild sector again.

[BartyHater]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Man the joys of being a cold snowy lover!!!!gfs has lead the way on a different level this week!im seriously impressed with it at this moment in time!!

It has performed above expectations recently for sure, but wasn’t it ICON that was first to show Sunday’s low transiting East across the country a few days ago?

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, The Enforcer said:

Mild sector again.

Only while the shortwave moves through the UK on Monday, uppers and temps should get lower after that.

[Mucka]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Wow what a day . 

Nothing like the drama of a trigger shortwave .

I think because it’s quite a complex situation with that shortwave and the other shown to the ne we’re going to need to see those modeled within T72hrs .

Overall though some really encouraging outputs for coldies . 

Definitely for important detail early next week, but all the models now have it following the GFS in pushing it through and phasing with Sceuro trough which sets up the high lat blocking pattern.

A backtrack now after the models finding consensus would be brutal.

[Metwatch]

Just now, The Enforcer said:

Mild sector again.

But not for long!

[daveinSB]

1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

Mild sector again.

That chart is for Monday, which as far as I can tell, has never been progged to be cold?

All the action is Tuesday onwards.

[Mark wheeler]

I know not exactly at the same time frame but look at the difference in 850s  from 0z to 12z at around 144hrs 

[Met4Cast]

I do wonder if we’re looking at a potential self sustained blocking pattern due to the way the jet curves & the positive feedback from the very cold air across Scandi reinforcing the high. 

 

WAA then helps to blow up the Atlantic high for another shot at cold beyond the first shot.. 

[Mucka]

What a difference a day makes

 

It is mazing how finely balance blocking patterns almost always are that can bring cold to our shores.