Storm Ciarán

[Sprites]

 

 

[coldfingers1]

Chichester harbour harbour weather reports. Fun to watch the wind speed start rising. Do bear in mind that these wind speeds are in Knotts not mph,

https://www.chimet.co.uk/(S(xmbgcp55pm4xcp55mclj3sad))/wind.aspx

 

[stripeyfox]

1 minute ago, Sprites said:

 

it's quite compelling to watch, especially for me who has been to Guernsey a few times but a bit of me also thinks a bit reckless.

 

 

[CurtisOliver]

Interesting, the average wind gust of my location is slowly increasing. Was 48mph now 48.5mph with Meteoblue still showing an outlier of a forecast. 50.4mph if omitted. If new models keep showing this moving northwards and with a potential stingjet I expect forecasts to change for the worse.

Edited November 1, 2023 by CurtisOliver

[Mcconnor8]

3 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Just tried it on Nullschool and my best guess is about 30 miles further north than that chart (about 0.5 degrees of latitude). Of course also 2 hours earlier (since 21:00 ECM time is 22:00 here), so probably will be further north by then 

I think 21:00 ECM time is 20:00 here no?

[matty40s]

That looks really nasty heading towards the channel islands.

 

[ChannelThunder]

Just now, matty40s said:

That looks really nasty heading towards the channel islands.

 

It almost makes it look like the centre of the low is down there currently, rather than many miles to the west!

[WYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, Mcconnor8 said:

I think 21:00 ECM time is 20:00 here no?

Not quite, but I have made a mistake. It's UTC, which we're in line with, so 9pm ECM time is 9pm here. I'll edit my comment though.

[VillagePlank]

Regarding the issuance of MetO red warnings.

This is controlled by the National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS) where it's priority is a "warning service based on the impact of the UK weather rather than a threshold of the weather itself"

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/data/pwms_nswws.pdf

[James Maidstone]

Just by understanding about Earthschool, it is still only being updated with information from models, not verified data?

[Fitzwis]

1 hour ago, snowrye said:

Stay safe mate

We’ll do our best to do so and thank you

[Fiona Robertson]

Been looking further north than models had forecast since this afternoon,but it was hard to tell if it would manage to get a wee bit further SE before it popped out of the jet stream. Also got a sting jetish feel. I really don't like the look of this one. Image is SSEC: Global, Water Vapor, Black & White (hourly)

[badwind]

Last 10 minutes like someone flicked a switch to "wind on" here in Poole

[alexisj9]

21 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Trains still running at Dawlish.

 

How the wind can't be stronger here than over there, and it's already blowing

[Gazse9]

10 minutes ago, Tamara said:

This storm has been presenting as, and modelled as, an (especially intense) RACY jet straddling low with a diffluent trough & occlusion quickly rather than the Shapiro-Keyser variety with the split jet & fractured cold front that can creates sting jets. The powerful thermal gradient  pulls the occluded front back around the western flank of the low pressure system, as it switches to the polar side of the jet, which creates the impression of the 'scorpion tail' feature of a sting jet. However with an occlusion indicated and no fractured cold front present on the modelling then it is has not indicated in modelling as a Shapiro-Keyser system.

It is not out of the question that there are characteristics of this system that are not being picked up in its evolution - based on its sheer power and the intensity of the thermal gradient along an immensely powerful jet streak.. Clearly this is a nowcasting situation and nothing can be ruled out in respect of the speed of occlusion which may present modelling problems and error, & which could determine how the dry air intrusion into the storm manifests itself in real time vs the modelling. 

The coming hours are going to e very interesting  (and potentially worrying) in respect of the accuracy of modelling and IF the dynamics of this dangerous storm evolve in an unexpected way to that suggested....

Good points...

I believe with the ever increasing Climate Change. The weather we see will most likely drastically alter in terms of how Meteorology is currently used in models and predictions. The way our weather forms and ultimately presents itself will be something the models can't deal with. In reality the odd school methods of Meteorology with inevitably be redesigned and in some cases thrown out altogether.

[WYorksWeather]

3 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

Just by understanding about Earthschool, it is still only being updated with information from models, not verified data?

Yep, it's still a model based forecast.

Observationally, a better resource might be Meteociel's isobars charts. It uses the models only to fill in the gaps between observations, and updates every few minutes. The centre of the storm is off the chart, but we do seem to have confirmation from here that it's modestly further north than the ECM track was suggesting. I would say minimum 25 miles, but could easily be more than that.

[josh-weather]

20 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

To my eye that is definitely a fair bit further North than for 21:00 on the 12z ECM (Pictured) and in also the 12z GFS for that matter

 

 

Doesn't nullschool just display the GFS model though (for wind anyway)? It won't update each hour, it will just show whichever hour you choose from the latest run it has, I think?

 

Edit: As others have said!

Edited November 1, 2023 by josh-weather

[Sidsnake]

54 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Something feels different about this storm! Number 1)still the uncertainty  2) 100 mph for northern France jersey this is similar to 1987 then it went further north than expected! 3) southern water sending me an email regarding power cuts this has never happened before! 4) now possible signs of a sting in the tale that will be very bad for us! Let’s see what happens stay safe everyone 

I've had two very strange texts from Power Networks.... I'm wondering if they know something we don't

[pinball wizard]

I've started a storm ciaran prediction competition: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99496-storm-ciaran-prediction-comp/

[WYorksWeather]

Just now, josh-weather said:

Doesn't nullschool just display the GFS model though (for wind anyway)? It won't update each hour, it will just show whichever hour you choose from the latest run it has, I think?

It must be doing some sort of interpolation though - I thought GFS only has 3-hourly? I think nullschool also brings in other data. I've tried to research it though and it does seem a bit opaque exactly how it works.

[Thunders]

2 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:

I've had two very strange texts from Power Networks.... I'm wondering if they know something we don't

probably

[CurtisOliver]

There is good chance companies related to infrastructure have been briefed on a worst case scenario. Computer models don't just run once, so its possible we have a few worst case tracks of this storm.

Edited November 1, 2023 by CurtisOliver

[Metwatch]

Some footage coming out of Penzance in the last hour to 2.

[LeeRoyxD]

the wind down here already in Seaford is making a racket 

[CurtisOliver]

I am surprised the Met Office hasn't issued a red for the very south coast yet. I think its starting to get pretty obvious from peoples observations already this is going to be a serious hazard for them. The waves are already incredible.

Edited November 1, 2023 by CurtisOliver