Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[minus10]

...start of a new trend??...no ?...oh well..good to see the minus 10  fantasy line breeched ...first time i think this winter. ..oh wait its still Autumn...

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

The same gfs that picked up the northerly then the greenland heights leading to the cold spell lol and it's getting shoot to bits again

Yeah if there’s one main strength of the GFS op, it’s picking up patterns against the grain in FI. It has always been the case.

You’ll rarely see ensembles pick up an E’ly before the operational. What tends to happen is the ensembles fall a bit at a time (if it happens).

Edited November 28, 2023 by Cheshire Freeze

[Mcconnor8]

2 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Yeah if there’s one main strength of the GFS op, it’s picking up patterns against the grain in FI. It has always been the case.

You’ll rarely see ensembles pick up an E’ly before the operational. What tends to happen is the ensembles fall a bit at a time (if it happens).

Yeah if it does play out it almost always gets picked up by the OP first with no ensemble support at long range, then slowly each run one or two more join the party as it ticks down, but obviously 90%+ of the time it just disappears on the next OP run not to be seen again.

[Metwatch]

12 minutes ago, ICETAB said:

So we're in with a shot then... 

I always prefer to take a probabilistic approach to things like these rather than the "it's not going to happen" viewpoint. Never say never! July 2022 prime example!

[Big Gally]

The gfs was first to pick up on the cold.

Mabey the El Niño is playing a part .

It just feels different this year. Fingers crossed  

[tight isobar]

21 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

There are 2 other members with the Det, but yeah the chances of that coming off is less than 0.1%

Some outliers as you will know- start as a laughable stock… until you get a sister operational start singing the same/ similar song- over 2 the ec.

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM coming out,let's see if we can get somewhere close to the gfs at days 8/9..my feeling is it wont..let's see

[minus10]

10 degrees or more between the op and the 850 mean/long term mean..wonder what the record is for the difference between an op and its means...

[LRD]

Just had a flick through some ensembles. There are a fair few that build a high into Scandi but we are on the warm side of that block. So, in that sense, the op isn't totally outrageous. It's unlikely, though, of course

About a third (maybe slightly more than that) want to bring in Euro heights. Quite strong too

Edited November 28, 2023 by LRD

[northwestsnow]

Looks so good at 96h

soooo close to something amazing..

[ICE COLD]

The Greenland high is so much stronger at T96 compared with T120 of yesterdays 12z run

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by ICE COLD

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks so good at 96h

soooo close to something amazing..

Doesn't look so great with that shallow high building over Spain...

Hopefully a Scandi high can come to help us out later.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Derecho

[Bats32]

Steong Greene high, come on ECM!

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Doesn't look so great with that shallow high building over Spain...

GFS looks the same at that point and then it did what it did. Not saying the ECM is heading the same way of course

[Metwatch]

Still got that small trough or shortwave for Sunday morning. Would ideally want it further south for most of us.

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Metwatch said:

Still got that small trough or shortwave for Sunday morning. Would ideally want it further south for most of us.

Most models have it a lot further south. A middle ground would be good.

[seabreeze86]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Most models have it a lot further south. A middle ground would be good.

It’s good where it is thanks

[mountain shadow]

ECM goes with  UKMO to keep a very Southerly jet so cold air hanging around at t+144. Interesting to see where this goes.

[northwestsnow]

144

 ec

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

144

 ec

Could we get the both of best worlds here, cold extension without the mild blip?

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Could we get the both of best worlds here, cold extension without the mild blip?

144 still bitterly cold and I think 168 might scrape cold too...

[Lukesluckybunch]

Can that ridge squeeze through at 168,to create heights over Iceland area..i.doubt it.let's see

[That ECM]

And that’s T144

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

very interesting.  GFS on to something?

 

BFTP

[Derecho]

13 minutes ago, LRD said:

GFS looks the same at that point and then it did what it did. Not saying the ECM is heading the same way of course

Yup, just wary of it as the milder ensemble members of the GFS build it helping push milder air towards us e.g.

Whilst the EC thankfully doesn't make much of it, UKMO and GFS make a bit more of it as the high pushes eastwards. It should be fine but we don't want a high to build in that region so I'm looking for that potential spanner in the works to be removed.

No increases in SLP over southern Europe here.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Derecho