Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Metwatch]

Well well well; Some sliding action there under the wedge to our north!

[Battleground Snow]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any news on arpege 18z?!!!

Only at 42 hours at the moment

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Only at 42 hours at the moment

Fill me in buddy!!gimme some upgrades!!!!hopefully start of a better 24 hours coming up!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

and now some action on the western side of low as it clears after previous dumping a load on Eastern flank.

[pages]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

So gfs keeps it running till 168 hours!!!!thats pretty long if you ask me!!enough time to extend it even further!!

I am starting to think 7th December might be a bit special.

Yes currently just showing heavy rain everywhere but that low that end the spell is being modelled further and further south and getting more enlongated.

At this far out I would say it's pretty much in perfect position with how much everything moves south.

Calling a channel low blizzard now

[Mark wheeler]

4 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Well well well; Some sliding action there under the wedge to our north!

Just a small adjustment south please .

[The Enforcer]

13 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

 quiet big changes now at day 6…. Low sliding and still cold at surface I suggest..Azores high much flatter as well… as low being slide shape not pumping it up

So much change in such a short space of time at this range. Don't worry, NAVGEM will provide clarity.

[Big Gally]

It keeps getting pushed back with gfs. Ok the signals are there for a return to less cold but the gfs has actually been performing well picking up the cold signal before the other models. Now it wants to push the milder air back slightly. ️

[LRD]

Just now, pages said:

I am starting to think 7th December might be a bit special.

Yes currently just showing heavy rain everywhere but that low that end the spell is being modelled further and further south and getting more enlongated.

At this far out I would say it's pretty much in perfect position with how much everything moves south.

Calling a channel low blizzard now

Agree - that is almost, ALMOST a classic chart. Push everything south by 700-800 miles, including that pesky interfering Azores High, and there is a countrywide snow event

[Mark wheeler]

Just now, The Enforcer said:

So much change in such a short space of time at this range. Don't worry, NAVGEM will provide clarity.

Will update if still up

[Ali1977]

Snow to rain then back to snow, that would be quite some day ️️ This could be exceptional next week, defo one to chase again !! 

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Mods, could you organise an AI to summarise every 5 to 10 pages when things are busy. Easy to parse the comments and ask for a summary. Might be interesting and possibly useful. Just a thought as it’s hard to keep up

Perhaps the other models thread with the highlights in it?

[Ali1977]

Day 9 and another big snow event coming in - conscious it’ll all change next run but nice too see for now!! 
 

This one could be huge if it slides NW/SE 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Ali1977

[pages]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Snow to rain then back to snow, that would be quite some day ️️ This could be exceptional next week, defo one to chase again !! 

O no that's not good with the cold winning out at this far out, it's going to miss to the south again lol.

 

[Mucka]

"Coming soon..."

SNOW MACHINA:

DISRUPTION PART DEUX

 

[Ali1977]

12 hours, keep it coming ️️ with this wasat T12

[Battleground Snow]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Fill me in buddy!!gimme some upgrades!!!!hopefully start of a better 24 hours coming up!!!

Sliding but further north then the gfs.

Can we do the impossible and get further cold upgrades/extension on the 00z?

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 9 and another big snow event coming in - conscious it’ll all change next run but nice too see for now!! 
 

This one could be huge if it slides NW/SE 

Tamara's high impact weather coming to fruition on this run?

It looks like this soap opera is going to run and run!

[Downburst]

5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Perhaps the other models thread with the highlights in it?

Summarise that perhaps, I had thought that migh5bwork. I use it in meetings and its ability to produce a summary is simply stunning, listens in and writes a summary at the end, almost magical. I’m sure it will be here sooner rather than later, the power of crowds etc. 

[sheikhy]

Okay let me correct myself!!if gfs 18z is to be believed then the cold spell never ends!!!!!

[The Enforcer]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Can we do the impossible and get further cold upgrades/extension on the 00z?

Not the 00z suite. More chance of it introducing a previously unmodelled Icelandic Low at T+48.

[Hoghtonwhite]

6 minutes ago, pages said:

O no that's not good with the cold winning out at this far out, it's going to miss to the south again lol.

 

Exactly this at least we’ll be kept in the cold so any snow that does fall between now and then should stick around. 

[Johnp]

Pacific ridge coming to try and reinforce the pressure over the pole now at 264hrs.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by Johnp

[Ali1977]

The colder we can get these nights over the next week the better, really embed the cold and freeze the ground solid ready for all this slider action next week - let’s hope this trend keeps going ️

[Johnp]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

The colder we can get these nights over the next week the better, really embed the cold and freeze the ground solid ready for all this slider action next week - let’s hope this trend keeps going ️

Exactly. If nothing else is achieved in this spell, then cooling the ground significantly would be a huge benefit.