Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[TillyS]

Reality check from the ECM:

 

No northerly blocking at the moment and a high over Spain that seems to hit F5 whenever you hope it’s disappearing. 

[TillyS]

If you came afresh to a chart like this I think the thing which would strike you is the absence of any proper high pressure cell to the north-west, north, or north-east of the UK. To me this is remarkable. No Greenland High. No Svalbard High. No Scandi High. No Siberian High. No Arctic High. Not even a mid-Atlantic High. Nada.

There is one bloomin’ high pressure cell and it’s not where we need it for UK cold 

 

Anyway, enough. Have a lovely day folks xx

Edited December 15, 2023 by TillyS

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, TillyS said:

If you came afresh to a chart like this I think the thing which would strike you is the absence of any proper high pressure cell to the north-west, north, or north-east of the UK. To me this is remarkable. No Greenland High. No Svalbard High. No Scandi High. No Siberian High. No Arctic High. Not even a mid-Atlantic High. Nada.

There is one bloomin’ high pressure cell and it’s not where we need it for UK cold 

 

Anyway, enough. Have a lovely day folks xx

Thank you.. good for bills when most are at home all day for a week or so  

[Blessed Weather]

I have just moved a couple of dozen posts over to the Winter Chat/Moans thread where they should have been made in the first place. Can people please be more considerate to their fellow members who want to log-in and head to the Model thread to catch up on the latest output and to read serious discussions about our weather prospects. What folk don't want is to have to wade through post after post of one-liners such as "winters over" and "Decembers aren't the same any more". 

So let's please keep this thread on-topic and informative. Thank you.

[clark3r]

Quick glance this morning and I can see where this is all going! Off for a break from viewing the charts for a while. 

[IDO]

There is no way to spin it; the direction of travel is away from anything other than a passing ridge/trough dropping some cold air, for barely 24 hours in the south (850s/2m London 0z):

There is lots of scatter afterwards, so it looks zonal with the position of the jet to be determined. The GEFS mean at D16 offers little right through to year's end:

No sign of forcing from MJO waves. Just the tPV smooching about freely above the mid-latitude HP systems. From my reading, this is much like how December would play out, and we can only hope the rest of the winter offers something more promising.

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

There is no way to spin it; the direction of travel is away from anything other than a passing ridge/trough dropping some cold air, for barely 24 hours in the south (850s/2m London 0z):

There is lots of scatter afterwards, so it looks zonal with the position of the jet to be determined. The GEFS mean at D16 offers little right through to year's end:

No sign of forcing from MJO waves. Just the tPV smooching about freely above the mid-latitude HP systems. From my reading, this is much like how December would play out, and we can only hope the rest of the winter offers something more promising.

Agreed.  

[mbrothers]

Has the mega storm for next week now all gone too?

[stratty]

2 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

Has the mega storm for next week now all gone too?

Yes, all a bit mehhh now.Nuff said!  

[mountain shadow]

Northward expansion of the Hadley cell due AGW overriding all the favourable teleconnections again it would appear.

 

[Marting]

Interestingly the ECM mean looks colder for Christmas Day than yesterday, but lots of water under the bridge before then.

martin

[carinthian]

Morning all , when ECM produces a powerful jet like that, things can change very rapidly. Still 10 days out till Christmas Day ! So I will best reserve judgement until " The Day after Tomorrow " ,sorry about the pun but there is a heck of a lot data to collect over the weekend and even then The Christmas Forecast will not be nailed .

C

[markw2680]

Wonder how many people on here after seeing the gfs charts from the other day was panicking telling people about the storm that was coming around the Christmas break? That’s what we all love and hate about model watching. If you allow it you will be up and down with the models making you all dizzy and sick lol. Never ever take things as gospel that’s more than 2/3 days away even then there’s always a few changes. It’s all a pinch of salt stuff but good fun seeing these mental day 10 charts.

[Dennis]

JMA 

[SLEETY]

Gfs just Woeful, still one of the mildest runs the op was.Their is  a 20c spread in 850s,on gfs probably best to ignore the model with its fantasy storms and snow it has been showing. 

Just bin it into the Atlantic to sink without trace

Wasting people's time showing outlandish charts that never materialise! 

[BartyHater]

Shocking output from the big two this morning re cold prospects. No time to post any charts now, but pretty sure most of us wouldn’t want to see them.

Respect to @carinthian for trying to offer a crumb or two of comfort, but it was starting to look game over when at  T+340…it now looks even more so at T+240

Edited December 15, 2023 by BartyHater

[AO-]

Just now, SLEETY said:

Gfs just Woeful, still one of the mildest runs the op was.Their is  a 20c spread in 850s,on gfs probably best to ignore the model with its fantasy storms and snow it has been showing. 

Just bin it into the Atlantic to sink without trace

Wasting people's time showing outlandish charts that never materialise! 

Even EC is on the mild side of the EPS from the 21st onwards. Also a lot of scatter but the trend is bad imo.

[WinterOf47]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Wonder how many people on here after seeing the gfs charts from the other day was panicking telling people about the storm that was coming around the Christmas break? That’s what we all love and hate about model watching. If you allow it you will be up and down with the models making you all dizzy and sick lol. Never ever take things as gospel that’s more than 2/3 days away even then there’s always a few changes. It’s all a pinch of salt stuff but good fun seeing these mental day 10 charts.

Any serious cold weather events predicted by the GFS more than 10 days out should be taken with a mountain of salt. The OP runs they were producing earlier this week for the run up to Christmas always seemed a tad far fetched. It seems that the Iberian/Azores high is a comfortable fit for the weather in the winter and the GFS is now accepting that.

Even though the GFS is not be relied on more than 10 days out when predicting weather we might like to see, the kind of charts we are seeing now always do seem to be accurate! I would be extremely surprised if we see anything outside of the set up below at Christmas, and even into the New Year. This thing is not going to shift in a hurry. Personally, I am quite happy with that. Daytime highs touching the double digits and nights no lower than 5 degrees are pleasant. There should be quite a bit of sun as well. After the awful autumn of endless rain we had, this is very welcome (in the South at least - the North will get wet and cold incursions).

 

[Rob 79812010]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Gfs just Woeful, still one of the mildest runs the op was.Their is  a 20c spread in 850s,on gfs probably best to ignore the model with its fantasy storms and snow it has been showing. 

Just bin it into the Atlantic to sink without trace

Wasting people's time showing outlandish charts that never materialise! 

Yes, and as a relatively novice I still don't get why deep into F1 they show such extremes from day to day. Shouldn't it be some kind of mean temperature?? Some of the long term forecasts even by the credible forecasters show crazy temps sometimes

[MattStoke]

15 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Wonder how many people on here after seeing the gfs charts from the other day was panicking telling people about the storm that was coming around the Christmas break? That’s what we all love and hate about model watching. If you allow it you will be up and down with the models making you all dizzy and sick lol. Never ever take things as gospel that’s more than 2/3 days away even then there’s always a few changes. It’s all a pinch of salt stuff but good fun seeing these mental day 10 charts.

To be fair, it's not as if the GFS always overblows areas of low pressure.

[Huntforsnow]

9 minutes ago, Dennis said:

JMA 

Has JMA ever been more accurate than other models? Genuine question 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Well this mornings runs ,really go to show the most likely scenario for Christmas day and beyond. Nothing unusual about those charts at this time of year, in fact pretty normal for Christmas as the normal default ,mild pattern.But plenty of time for Winter synoptics ,after Christmas ,where the real meat of winter is to come........!

[mountain shadow]

20 minutes ago, Dennis said:

JMA 

Booferkings only hope!

[Mike Poole]

18 minutes ago, Huntforsnow said:

Has JMA ever been more accurate than other models? Genuine question 

 

I can’t remember an occasion when it consistently went for the right answer before the other models.

It’s featured on the 12z verification stats:

But it is a poor 5th.  Usually ECM best, UKMO close behind, GFS and GEM vying for 3rd place these days, although my view is that GFS has rather punched above its weight this winter.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Mike Poole

[joggs]

32 minutes ago, Dennis said:

JMA 

Sorry Dennis. All you've done is cherry pic charts that are not coming to fruition.

Could you please counter this by showing the more likely route. Thanks