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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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BartyHater Aficionado

BartyHater

Posted
  • Location: S Cornwall
  • Location: S Cornwall
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I didn’t say it was cold - I said it was very close to being cold - as in the set up isn’t far away!! 

Actually you said it was v close to being v cold…not cold.

Sadly it’s nowhere near close to being v cold.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted
1 minute ago, BartyHater said:

Actually you said it was v close to being v cold…not cold.

Sadly it’s nowhere near close to being v cold.

image.thumb.gif.bf52ce8c8db4816247dd65859d5b0233.gif

 

 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
35 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 168 very close to being v cold for Xmas day , it could still happen - even if it only lasts a day or 2!! 

IMG_1884.png

Even here we have short waves in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I think we've seen a failure of most models (not the ECM Op) to over estimate the impact of teleconnections like EAMT and the MJO.

AGW now takes command of all.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Even here we have short waves in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I think we've seen a failure of most models (not the ECM Op) to over estimate the impact of teleconnections like EAMT and the MJO.

AGW now takes command of all.

I think there is an element of truth to the last sentence ..

Sadly.

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BarnetBlizzard Aficionado

BarnetBlizzard

Posted
  • Location: Barnet
  • Location: Barnet
Posted
6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Even here we have short waves in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I think we've seen a failure of most models (not the ECM Op) to over estimate the impact of teleconnections like EAMT and the MJO.

AGW now takes command of all.

Apologies If I'm being slow, what does AGW stand for? Something global warming?

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Even here we have short waves in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I think we've seen a failure of most models (not the ECM Op) to over estimate the impact of teleconnections like EAMT and the MJO.

AGW now takes command of all.

Yep.. ecm has been consistently restrained and appears to have shown the way

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LetItSnow! Experienced

LetItSnow!

Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
Posted
Just now, BarnetBlizzard said:

Apologies If I'm being slow, what does AGW stand for? Something global warming?

Anthropogenic Global Warming

 

Just now, BarnetBlizzard said:

Apologies If I'm being slow, what does AGW stand for? Something global warming?

 

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
47 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Christmas/ Easter snow likelihood 

 

This is a week old.

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Northwest NI Seasoned

Northwest NI

Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
Posted

You’ll all say I’m mad but does anyone want to join me on a hunt for mild rain? 
I always like a challenge .

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Uncertainty Accomplished

Uncertainty

Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
Posted (edited)

Some serious strat warnings now showing up even in the normally conservative geps and now consistently in the  GEFS. 
 

Edited by Uncertainty
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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

Is it time yet??😂😂

IMG_7995.jpeg

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weathercold Aficionado

weathercold

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
Posted

I sense there are many a disappointed folk on here this evening and absolutely understandably so. For winter lovers we are in the trenches, no question. The charts are about as grim as they can get. I don’t think many should be surprised though, bar the odd chilly nwp run there has been no consistent signal for cold, especially not within the ensembles.

So where now - current models across the 12z suite are sobering. We are relying on amplification to allow heights to build and right now we can’t catch a break.

If background signals going into this winter were a non debate (I’m highly sceptical of these anyway but that’s best left for a separate debate) and we just took the current model projections as a guide going forwards I sense many on here would be waving the white flag.

So where do we look for optimism going forwards- the old adage it can’t get much worse…changes can happen at short notice, it’s only December, background signals blah blah blah. All possibilities for sure but would you hedge your bets on anything notable coming to fruition? History dictates not…

The weather world is a frustrating hobby, it was only last month many of us were salivating at the bitter cold to our east, lots of northern blocking with a hugely disorganised pv on the Siberian side. And yes that element still exists but maybe I’m alone here in thinking the November positivity feels a long way away right now.

I’ve peddled a mild and wet winter for sometime now, much against my inner weather love for snow and cold. And yes you can argue it’s an easy call living here in the UK. Easy or not, it’s sadly all too often the reality. Expectations for Jan onwards are low for me, one year will be our year sadly I sense many will be waving that white flag sooner than we thought. 
 

WC

 

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Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted
3 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

Some serious strat warnings now showing up even in the normally conservative geps and now consistently in the  GEFS. 
 

Just need these to come more into the reliable timeframe and not at 300+ hours and we can hope from mid to late January we see the response and cold can come in, this I feel is our only way for country wide cold for the rest of this winter.

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BartyHater Aficionado

BartyHater

Posted
  • Location: S Cornwall
  • Location: S Cornwall
Posted (edited)

ECM joins in the horror show with a blowtorch Xmas Eve away from northern and eastern Scotland.

She may not have sung yet, but she’s definitely clearing her throat now!😡 

IMG_5597.jpeg

Edited by BartyHater
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Uncertainty Accomplished

Uncertainty

Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
Posted
2 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Just need these to come more into the reliable timeframe and not at 300+ hours and we can hope from mid to late January we see the response and cold can come in, this I feel is our only way for country wide cold for the rest of this winter.

You’re probably right about the latter part; the reliability bit is true generally but it has been consistent on the ec46 that end week 2 / week 3 we might see a big disruption and now that’s coming into the view of the other two main ensembles. No full blown ssw in reliable forecast just yet either, but a significant warming looks likely with the flavour (e.g minor / major or if the latter displacement / split) still to be decided…

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
26 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

You’ll all say I’m mad but does anyone want to join me on a hunt for mild rain? 
I always like a challenge .

Good idea, would be great to hunt for that, and end up with it breaking down to cold and snow lol

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