Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[northwestsnow]

GEFS mean looks interesting as we head into Jan

[Mucka]

24 minutes ago, KTtom said:

When i look at charts like this UKMO 168 i see little sign of a majour pattern change anytime soon.. which is the Mets take till mid Jan at earliest. As someone said yesterday, the overpowering teleconnection we have is Climate change .

 

It will be mild because of climate change until, and if, we get a cold spell. 

 

Despite the obvious differences I think this is the first time the big 3 have agreed on the relative trough position for Xmas eve.

Not great, it is coming down to a matter faith for Xmas cold now,

 

ECM/UKMO/GFS 120h

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS mean looks interesting as we head into Jan

That’s the control run mate

[Andy8472]

5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Best GEFS mean of the winter yet.

& again pretty strong signal

Edited December 19, 2023 by Andy8472

[Harsh Climate]

Checked Gfs and ukmo this morning, wish I hadn't! .

What people thought was bad output yesterday, x3 this morning..

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Checked Gfs and ukmo this morning, wish I hadn't! .

What people thought was bad output yesterday, x3 this morning..

Isn’t it the same every winter ?

Let’s hope the Icelandic volcano causes a more amplified jet!!

Drastic measures needed for drastic times!!

18z was pretty much average! (New averages the past decade)

Edited December 19, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[Lukesluckybunch]

Really bad output this morning..flat westerlys for Xmas look most likely!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Really bad output this morning..flat westerlys for Xmas look most likely!

Xmas is a write off we need to hope for changes into Jan.

 

[Weather-history]

Nasty early Christmas morning for northern parts if GFS 0z came off

[Nick2373]

 

00Z On the grand scheme of things its not that bad, the ens members are pretty much 50/50 split the ppn spikes have dropped since yesterday the patterrn will flatten out close to average for this time of the year, anything is better than a total wash out, And remember anything past five days in my opinion is FI. Its like winter word bingo in here sometimes not long now I'll have a full house just need the word throwing in the towel. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Nick2373

[nick sussex]

The ECM delivers the weather equivalent of meh !

Underwhelming throughout . A few glimpses of cooler air and some milder days .

Last nights attempt to build a high to the north has imploded .

I think it’s game over for any notable cold or snow this side of January . Best enjoy Christmas and accept that it’s just not happening .

With the zonal flow remaining weak and the forecast MJO into phase 1 later in the month hopefully the models will show some more interest going into January .

[mountain shadow]

Worse runs of the Winter for proper cold. 

Strange given the MJO was meant to be more amplified and in favourable sectors 8 and 1.

[TillyS]

Well it’s a bog standard winter zonal ECM. No repeat of the T240 momentary Iceland tease for now. A succession of low pressures to the north, whilst high pressure is never far away from the south and south-west.

These set ups do often produce a bit of wintriness for the Scottish ski industry but not a lot else.

Nick uses the word ‘meh’ and it does prompt his other question, which is if we weren’t focused on Christmas, would we take much notice of the current outputs from a cold lovers’ perspective? The answer is, probably not.

Edited December 19, 2023 by TillyS

[johncam]

37 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

It will be mild because of climate change until, and if, we get a cold spell. 

 

Despite the obvious differences I think this is the first time the big 3 have agreed on the relative trough position for Xmas eve.

Not great, it is coming down to a matter faith for Xmas cold now,

 

ECM/UKMO/GFS 120h

 

Let's be honest you couldn't draw a worse chart.

[Weather-history]

Just now, johncam said:

Let's be honest you couldn't draw a worse chart.

You can if you are a winter lover

[weathercold]

I’m struggling to paint a worse set of charts for Xmas - you have to laugh

Wet and mild - awful.  

[blizzard81]

Yep, I have to agree with others in here this morning. Worst set of runs this season. What was the ecm 12z run all about last night? Seems we have been teased more than ever this year with the run up to Christmas. 

[BartyHater]

The entire suite this morning screams one thing…time for a model watching break. Enjoy your Christmas

[TillyS]

18 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep, I have to agree with others in here this morning. Worst set of runs this season. What was the ecm 12z run all about last night? Seems we have been teased more than ever this year with the run up to Christmas. 

Tbf, it was only one frame at T240, showing a height building over Iceland. The rest was pretty much the same as this.

[feb1991blizzard]

18 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

The entire suite this morning screams one thing…time for a model watching break. Enjoy your Christmas

Does it really?

[AO-]

4 minutes ago, TillyS said:

Tbf, it was only one frame at T240, showing a height building over Iceland. The rest was pretty much the same as this.

What is striking is that yesterday the EC operational was on the mild side of the EPS whereas this morning the whole EPS downgraded. Something similar happened yesterday Morning compared to the night before. There is a lot of jumping of the complete EPS. That is quite odd.

[MJB]

At least some might see a covering on the big day 

[John88B]

Just now, MJB said:

At least some might see a covering on the big day 

Yep good luck to those up north

In my 54 years on the planet living in this part of the world I can only remember snow on the ground on Christmas day twice but never snow falling on Christmas day so that's how rare a white Christmas is in these parts. I really need to temper my hopes and optimism

Anyway possibilities up north but it looks like game over for the south, if we were ever truly in the game that is!

Anyway for what it's worth I believe we'll see a few decent cold shots this winter, or is this me being too optimistic again

Cheers all

[nick sussex]

1 hour ago, TillyS said:

Well it’s a bog standard winter zonal ECM. No repeat of the T240 momentary Iceland tease for now. A succession of low pressures to the north, whilst high pressure is never far away from the south and south-west.

These set ups do often produce a bit of wintriness for the Scottish ski industry but not a lot else.

Nick uses the word ‘meh’ and it does prompt his other question, which is if we weren’t focused on Christmas, would we take much notice of the current outputs from a cold lovers’ perspective? The answer is, probably not.

Regardless of Christmas from a coldies perspective they are meh for winter .

Outside of winter months the outputs don’t tend to get as much discussion. So unreliability tends to get missed .

[weathercold]

As mentioned yesterday what has really stood out for me so far this winter is the lack of even one or two epic runs- across any model suite. Forget ensembles here I’m talking about just a single ECM, GFS, UKMO model run. There’s been nothing that’s really got the pulses racing which I think is telling.

It’s all been v meh so far and I really cannot see anything changing anytime soon.

I appreciate there are some regular posters on here who keep peddling a backloaded winter, a cold Jan/Feb - cannot see anything that points to this. Aside from clinging on to desperate background signal crumbs it’s pure hyperbole stuff. 
 

Current charts across the gfs suite show potential warmings into Jan, they can’t get 7 days right I’d be v sceptical of 300 + hrs.

Like others I think it’s time for a break from model watching, it’s beyond depressing right now and nothing is changing before months end.

Have a great Xmas all 

 

WC