Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

Recommended Posts

Recommended

Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

Recommended by Paul

  • Thanks
  • Like

57 reactions

Go to this post
TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
33 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, outer reaches of GEFS continues to improve.

image.thumb.png.6e00145d32d32cbdb0a3499c21c7f316.png

Good to see blues to our south east.. reds to our north west have been plentiful but impact lost to date with euro heights 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Well its only the gfs6z but....Is this the one??...or is this run a one off??

ens_image-2023-12-22T142821_322.thumb.png.66ab1af81a1b68a1c90a1722bdfdbe23.png

ens_image-2023-12-22T142801_888.thumb.png.1a48f780f99ce9939963601e1a4a1f44.png

...quite a downward change in the ens...

..much better NH pattern with this too..

gfsnh-12-354(2).thumb.png.64113906575c229bdc453b6a72524717.png

..indicative of a pattern change?...too early to say but good to see all the same..

..will want to keep seeing this mean become a trend also...

gensnh-31-5-360(2).thumb.png.173bddf55c94e9a0bd1c9363b1fccb85.png

..been very deflating of late if looking for cold..but maybe ...🤞🤞...onto 12zs

 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Head to met outlook forum and discuss.😄👌Don’t reply in here.👍

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BartyHater Aficionado

BartyHater

Posted
  • Location: S Cornwall
  • Location: S Cornwall
Posted
2 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

0-3 c is not standard..in winter in the uk..average temps in January 6/7c..perhaps not severely cold..but definitely in the very cold.category

Not at midnight though, that was my point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TillyS Community Regular

TillyS

Posted
  • Location: Various
  • Location: Various
Posted
3 hours ago, BartyHater said:

Well I think we can safely assume the first half of January will be colder than the second half of December

I'm not really sure that we can assume that, let alone safely? Maybe, maybe not. It’s unreliable timeframe.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Here comes thr day 9 slider… further south than 06z

image.thumb.png.0d078eb532f1b99f96e38f8131cf5f4d.pngimage.thumb.png.5aae066b81bf7bdb13edb52241cb40df.png

Sorry gang. Got it wrong.. no slide just one of those annoying sit out west and fill jobbies

image.thumb.png.0867efa6628d9a0913a63ea101b8bcce.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

After a somewhat disappointing (I'm being kind) last 3 weeks, there does finally appear to be something stirring.  The potential for a strat warming is being maintained, actually improved, on the 12z. This now showing at day 10/11

image.thumb.png.ebd01e42aac0551bf2e8fd0d1042780d.png image.thumb.png.505dcb32a9ac1b27566b69bd2af9dfb9.png

Of course, no guarantee, but I'd much rather see it than not. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted (edited)

Hot hot hot at the top of the Strat 🥵

IMG_1979.thumb.jpeg.b9e808a5430adbb7a5cb590529a6f12a.jpeg
 

Edit: I’ve just realised I chopped off some details. This is the GFS 12z day#13 @ 2mb 👍

Edited by Duane S.
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

All looking very ‘12/‘13 to me.

The way these wedges of weak heights being modelled are popping up in the mid range is reminiscent of what happened just prior to and during the strat warming that year.

Even the potential warming date looks similar.

Edited by Cheshire Freeze
  • Like 16
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Harveyslugger Enthusiast

Harveyslugger

Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(180M ASL)
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(180M ASL)
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

All looking very ‘12/‘13 to me.

The way these wedges of weak heights being modelled are popping up in the mid range is reminiscent of what happened just prior to and during the strat warming that year.

Is that a good thing from a cold and snow perspective?:)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Popular Post
Posted
Just now, Harveyslugger said:

Is that a good thing from a cold and snow perspective?:)

If you want a cold Jan-Mar then yes.

Straight out of the ‘13 playbook

image.thumb.png.25e3a1fdd4b95130ce14f08f9d2f7576.png

  • Like 9
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BartyHater Aficionado

BartyHater

Posted
  • Location: S Cornwall
  • Location: S Cornwall
Posted
1 hour ago, TillyS said:

I'm not really sure that we can assume that, let alone safely? Maybe, maybe not. It’s unreliable timeframe.

 

The way this winter is going you’re right, even that may have been a bit presumptuous.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

All looking very ‘12/‘13 to me.

The way these wedges of weak heights being modelled are popping up in the mid range is reminiscent of what happened just prior to and during the strat warming that year.

Even the potential warming date looks similar.

I agree similar I'd say more similarities to 2014/15 in terms of broader scale telleconnections. El Nino winters are often end loaded with good dynamics for SSW impacts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted
1 hour ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

If you want a cold Jan-Mar then yes.

Straight out of the ‘13 playbook

image.thumb.png.25e3a1fdd4b95130ce14f08f9d2f7576.png

Well I always here about these 11 year cycles could we be aligning for another though I don't remember 2001-02 being anything special 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec won’t be as far south with the trough next week compared to the 00z run 

that’s more middle ground 

That's a shame... although to be expected as this mornings was a little isolated 12z 168 00z 180 below 

image.thumb.png.c0084e8a8ddd5d0d5a55f3f5f594043b.pngimage.thumb.png.18935a00323a39b50a2ded3504a74490.png

Edited by TSNWK
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

All out in la la land zip know but interesting to see the gfs 12z staring to get a bit wedge as we head into January. 

Edit I see Cheshire Freeze beat me to it.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Well well well - look whats on the menu back end of GEFS mean.

It’s going to be an interesting watch, ne with the wrap round winds.😄

IMG_0477.png

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...