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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
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Posted

6/7 Jan is where the fun begins, with a significant atlantic wave break creating the change. This is an MJO/GWO/+EAMT product.

See ECM last night for the 7th:

image.thumb.png.f64774779bab688dfebc804e89d8930f.png

GEM lunchtime today for the 6th:

image.thumb.png.f1ae36f9f93acdca46334348fcb0922f.png

GFS lunchtime today also for the 7th:

image.thumb.png.2dd24ebc521969e5ac17325847cb16d5.png

 

Any further analysis at this stage is a waste of time. A wave break like this is not easily modelled, and how the jet interacts with it to the south, and how the break aligns, will be crucial to any low pressure undercutting through Scandy or indeed from the atlantic. ECM and GEM offer very tasty, if different, mid term solutions to this at 240h, GFS doesn't get the break quite as high. Given both ECM and GEM are outperforming GFS in 120h stats at the moment I'd go with then over the GFS....but time will tell. 

The next few days of model watching are going to be some of the best of the season so far.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
4 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Reasons for optimism justified by current output. Liking Mets outlook as well. Could do with BBC lowering it's forecast temps a bit though!

BBC are always last to catch on as they only use raw model data.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)

Any news on mean.. I freely admit I don’t really get them.. 12z lost a lot of the deep cold to our north east… I’m hoping this 12z is mild outlier for somewhere like Copenhagen 

Edited by TSNWK
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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Any news on mean.. I freely admit I don’t really get them..

Going down..

ens_image-2023-12-29T171255_170.thumb.png.f1ebb64d2cbef28ab82706606b87a362.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Mean is an upgrade at day 8..

Get in! The op is top half then ends up a mild outlier… brilliant news 

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
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Posted
Just now, Penguin16 said:

I’ll be tore to shreds for this but I just don’t get the level of enthusiasm for the output. Fantasy island charts that may lead to something better. In the minority opinion no doubt with that. Time will tell. 

Maybe it's the fact we are going through a pattern change to colder more seasonal weather after such a mild and wet start to winter. And makes for interesting Model viewing and discussion 😊

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
58 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Can already tell, these runs are not going to produce cold in the reliable, they may in FI

??? Reliable is 120 -144 , is that what you were expecting ?

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warrenb Seasoned

warrenb

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Get in! The op is top half then ends up a mild outlier… brilliant news 

Please remember the side axis is dynamic until the full suite is published, so is sometimes not the same as the previous run.

Edited by warrenb
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GEFS at T216, this is probably a day into the amplification:

gens_paneljuw3.php.png

I think that is a good signal.  I think the ceiling on the northward extent of the ridging has come down a little over the last few days, since the SSW runs exited.  Hopefully we can get some idea of the floor in the next couple of days, but if you assume for the moment the GEM 12z is a kind of middle ground, that’s good enough for me.

In a few days time it will be 9 consecutive winter months I’ve not seen a single snowflake.  Let’s hope January bucks the trend.  

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
9 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

I’ll be tore to shreds for this but I just don’t get the level of enthusiasm for the output. Fantasy island charts that may lead to something better. In the minority opinion no doubt with that. Time will tell. 

All trends will start somewhere, we never wake up in the morning and charts suddenly show a BFTE, it has to evolve at some point, we are now watching it evolve, hopefully this time it will go from T240 to T0 🙂 

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Duane S. said:

Just got in and checked the GEFS. Some absolute belters in there! Cold of sorts is firming up.

Think the mean for at least northern England northwards should be lower than -5 850hpa from the 9TH JAN which is where we need to be! And a few perps between -10/15 Not like the rubbish 6z essembles. Heading in the right direction! 

Edited by Harsh Climate
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