Hottest Heatwave of All Time Championship

[Summer of 95]

Wow, did July 2019 just get a station entry from Shropshire? I think it's the first one, in that case it's definitely nowhere near as dislikeable as August 2003 (a near-complete fail round here). August 2020 is the other one I'm rooting to go out, I felt it was far too SE-focused in terms of heat, though it made up for it in these parts with thunderstorms.

June-July 2018 would be stuffed without Wales! Although that was a very good summer here, much better than 2003, it rarely seemed to get extremely hot, it was more sustained warmth. 

July 1989 must be to this competition what Italy was to the last two World Cups, the incredible non-qualifier.

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Summer of 95

[CryoraptorA303]

34 minutes ago, Summer of 95 said:

Wow, did July 2019 just get a station entry from Shropshire? I think it's the first one, in that case it's definitely nowhere near as dislikeable as August 2003 (a near-complete fail round here). August 2020 is the other one I'm rooting to go out, I felt it was far too SE-focused in terms of heat, though it made up for it in these parts with thunderstorms.

I heavily dislike July 2019 because the record break is imo thoroughly underserved vs August 2003. I was very tempted to list its highest temp as 38.4C at Faversham but I decided to play fair. Either way July 2019 will absolutely eviscerate anything that isn't another supergiant, regardless of the digit at the end of the 38.

Unfortunately (or fortunately? Depending on your preferences) the SE will always be the place to go for the hottest temps, apart from maybe August 1990 and 1995. I don't think anywhere in Shropshire has ever caught a daily max during a heatwave. The geography isn't conducive to the very hottest temps being there, and it simutaneously mostly prevents heat from sticking around at night. E.g. Newport holding the lowest temp on record for England via a massive inversion effect. Newport getting a daily min is quite unexpected actually and I suspect the hottest air must've been blowing directly over it at the time.

42 minutes ago, Summer of 95 said:

June-July 2018 would be stuffed without Wales! Although that was a very good summer here, much better than 2003, it rarely seemed to get extremely hot, it was more sustained warmth. 

Quite surprising how prominent Wales (and NI) was in that heatwave, and Porthmadog in particular being the hottest for three days in a row and getting to 33.0C on the hottest day. That'd be like Heathrow getting to about 37 or 38. It's quite reminiscent of July 2021 actually with NI being the hottest point of the heatwave. Most of the longest heatwaves seem to be like this, starting further west and then moving east as the North Sea easterly breeze dies off and the heat dome is naturally pushed east by westerlies. In June especially the easterly breeze will be quite strong still and this stops Kent, London etc. getting the highest temps and also pushes the hot air a bit further west. This would explain why in the second heatwave of July 2018 the SE got really battered; Gravesend and Faversham recorded a lot of the daily extremes in that leg, and most of the rest were probably London or somewhere in East Anglia. Same in the August heatwave. The North Sea would've been really warm and the easterly breeze almost nonexistent by that point so the southeasternmost points will obviously get the hottest as the air is pushed west. Unfortunately neither of these ones were nominated. August 2019 is another one I'm disappointed to see not be nominated. Also a shame we didn't get the historic Septembers aside from 1906.

I agree, 2018 was a summer of really consistent very-warmth, as opposed to seriously extreme temps. Ok we did get 35.3C at Faversham and two consecutive days of 35, and we did have quite a lot of 30C days, but this is really not that extreme anymore. This is perhaps like a notable heatwave pre-1990 reaching 33C for a day or two. The more notable thing about summer 2018 for me was the dryness of it - June and most of July was desperately dry, drier than the same period in 1976 I'm pretty sure. The difference seems to have been made by the wet spring before it (although don't let the stats fool you, May was also intensely dry on the east coast until a massive thunderstorm passed through at the end) and the air over us not being all that particularly hot.

2003 and 2020 are quite unusual heatwaves, aside from the obvious. In the former the hot air in the final heat spike was lodged directly over Kent which would explain Faversham's 38.5C (which some people today STILL dismiss as supposedly suspicious even though it is perfectly consistent with other north coast stations). In August 2020 you had a massive European heat dome that clipped the SE, and I think if anything the wind direction became a very slight northerly over the far east on a few days, despite the very hot air, which is how the places that recorded the extremes did so. August 2022 was a bit like this as well with it insisting on an easterly even though the eastern breeze was absolutely KO'd by that point due to the very hot summer before it, so the net effect was the immediate west of the east coast getting the highest temps. If it didn't keep insisting on the easterly then you would've ended up with Faversham getting to 36/37C again as the hot air gradually became a westerly. Three (or maybe even four) top 10 hottest days from a single year would've been totally unprecedented.

London and Surrey have always been hot but in the last 20 years they seem to be getting really hot at the expense of further west. I wonder if a warmer North Sea due to climate change is KO'ing the easterly wind and stopping the hot air being pushed far enough west for the SW/WM to be the epicentres of heatwaves and instead its ending up over London and Surrey Who knows?

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, Summer of 95 said:

July 1989 must be to this competition what Italy was to the last two World Cups, the incredible non-qualifier.

I spend about 10 minutes trying to find who nominated it when I noticed I'd "forgotten" to include it in the fixtures, only to realise no one did nominate it Really surprised me that.

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[AlexG595]

On 04/12/2023 at 11:17, CryoraptorA303 said:

Welcome to the Hottest Heatwave of All Time Championship!

In this game, each member will nominate one heatwave to enter the competition. Once enough heatwaves have been added to the pot, a bracket will be randomised to decide each match. Each match will be a 1 vs 1 between two heatwaves.

Each heatwave will be judged on nine criteria:
- Total days of heatwave

- Total consecutive 30C days

- Days above 34C

- Days above 36C

- Hottest day

- Warmest night

- Average maximum temperature

- Average minimum temperature

Each heatwave will be awarded a point for each criterion it suppasses the opposing heatwave by. If a criterion is a tie, both heatwaves will be awarded a point. If neither heatwave satisfies a criterion, then both sides will not be awarded a point.

The winning heatwave will move to the next round of the championship, while the losing heatwave will be eliminated. If the final score is a tie, then a Sudden Death round will be held, and each Met Office region will present its max temperature for both heatwaves. Whichever heatwave achieved a higher maximum in the most regions will be given an extra tenth point and advance to the next round.

All temperatures will be derived from Starling's Roost Weather data, unless otherwise specified.

To qualify as a heatwave, any nominated hot spell must have achieved a temperature of 28.0C or higher for at least 3 days and must not drop below at any point. There is no lower limit for daily minima.

Any heatwave from May to September may be nominated. Heatwaves which spanned between two months (such as 1976) may be nominated as [Month 1]/[Month 2] [Year]. Years in which two temporally distinct heatwaves occured must be nominated separately, for instance June/July 2018 and late July 2018. An exception may be considered if temperatures only dropped slightly below 28.0C for a day or two, but the non-heatwave day(s) will be held against it in the averages.

The stations Camden Square, Barbourne and London Weather Centre are banned from this tournament and temperatures from these stations will not be considered. As the host I reserve the right to disqualify any temperatures I believe to not stand up to scrutiny.

All temperatures will be listed in chronological order.

With that out of the way, nominate your heatwaves!

August 2022, the July heatwave has seen a lot of attention but nobody has seemed to nominate (in my opinion) the even more credible August!

 

The month saw several days between 32-35°C in a row with some especially oppressive nights. The length of this heatwave felt worse than the July heatwave, not to mention the more widespread hot temperatures as compared to 2020 which was mostly secluded to more southern areas of England

[CryoraptorA303]

9 hours ago, AlexG595 said:

August 2022, the July heatwave has seen a lot of attention but nobody has seemed to nominate (in my opinion) the even more credible August!

 

The month saw several days between 32-35°C in a row with some especially oppressive nights. The length of this heatwave felt worse than the July heatwave, not to mention the more widespread hot temperatures as compared to 2020 which was mostly secluded to more southern areas of England

August 2022 was nominated by SummerShower

I agree that it's unfairly overshadowed by the July heatwave. Lots and lots of hot days and there were only two days below 26°C the entire month! I believe August 12th 2022 is also metre-for-metre the hottest day on record.

[CryoraptorA303]

August 1975 vs August 2020

Welcome all to the first match of the day! For this match we have August 1975, an underrated beast, sponsored by @hillbilly, going to the grounds with August 2020, a notorious favourite, sponsored by @LetItSnow!!

As we're running late again (many apologies), let's begin the match!

GO!

August 1975

Daily maxima:
27th: 28.9°C Benson
28th: 30.2°C East Dereham
29th: 31.0°C Bromley
30th: 32.0°C Bromley
31st: 31.1°C Mayflower Park (Southampton)
1st: 30.0°C Harrow Weald
2nd: 31.6°C King Edward's School (Birmingham)
3rd: 32.5°C Hereford
4th: 34.1°C Shinfield
5th: 31.4°C Kensington Palace
6th: 32.3°C Costessey
7th: 34.0°C Bromley
8th: 34.2°C Stanstead Abbots, Heathrow
9th: 32.3°C Sheffield
10th: 29.5°C Onich, Lagganlia
11th: 32.0°C Harrow Weald
12th: 31.5°C Harrow Weald
13th: 31.5°C Harrow Weald
14th: 31.5°C Harrow Weald

Daily minima:
27th: 17.5°C Enfield
28th: 17.3°C Eastbourne
29th: 17.3°C Gloucester
30th: 18.0°C Skegness
31st: 18.6°C St Albans, St James's Park
1st: 19.0°C Mumbles Head
2nd: 19.3°C Port Talbot
3rd: 20.5°C Victoria Park (Swansea)
4th: 21.2°C Port Talbot
5th: 21.7°C Heathrow, Folkestone
6th: 18.5°C Gorleston
7th: 19.5°C Eastbourne
8th: 20.9°C Hastings
9th: 19.9°C Enfield
10th: 17.2°C Enfield (Manchester Weather Centre not an eligible station)
11th: 17.9°C Finnart
12th: 17.6°C Southend
13th: 19.0°C Stanford-le-Hope
14th: 19.0°C Nottingham
15th: 17.8°C Maldon

Total days of heatwave: 19
Total days above 30.0°C: 13
Total days above 34.0°C: 3
Total days above 36.0°C: 0
Hottest day: 34.2°C
Warmest night: 21.7°C
Average daily maximum: 31.7°C
Average daily minimum: 18.9°C
All-time record break: No

August 2020

Daily maxima:
6th: 30.1°C Wisley
7th: 36.4°C Heathrow, Kew Gardens
8th: 34.6°C Charlwood
9th: 34.0°C Herstmonceux
10th: 35.7°C Charlwood
11th: 36.2°C Charlwood
12th: 35.7°C Charlwood
13th: 29.8°C Porthmadog

Daily minima:
6th: 19.1°C St James's Park
7th: 18.4°C Hastings
8th: 22.3°C Langdon Bay
9th: 19.6°C Eastbourne
10th: 21.2°C Thorney Island
11th: 22.0°C Eastbourne
12th: 22.0°C St James's Park
13th: 21.0°C Hayling Island
14th: 19.1°C Ventnor Park

Total days of heatwave: 8
Total days above 30.0°C: 7
Total days above 34.0°C: 6
Total days above 36.0°C: 2
Hottest day: 36.4°C
Warmest night: 22.3°C
Average daily maximum: 34.1°C
Average daily minimum: 20.5°C
All-time record break: No

Score

Total days of heatwave: August 1975 (1-0)
Total days above 30.0°C: August 1975 (2-0)
Total days above 34.0°C: August 2020 (2-1)
Total days above 36.0°C: August 2020 (2-2)
Hottest day: August 2020 (2-3)
Warmest night: August 2020 (2-4)
Average daily maximum: August 2020 (2-5)
Average daily minimum: August 2020 (2-6)
All-time record break: It's a tie! (2-6)

Final score: August 1975 2-6 August 2020

August 2020 wins!

Although August 1975 is imo extremely underrated and is easily a giant in its own right, August 2020 is an absolute monster and has sent it packing. I would've liked to see August 1975 go to the second round, but I suppose you always have a good side leave in the first leg... Oh well. Congratulations LetItSnow!, August 2020 is advancing to round 2! Bad luck hillbilly, August 1975 is off home to Harrow

August 2020 has also now achieved the highest days above 34.0°C so far, surpassing August 2003's and July 2006's joint records, and the highest mean maxima and minima, surpassing July 2019's records! I think August 2020 not having a flawless victory is only a reflection of August 1975 itself being a respectable giant. Who do you think could beat August 2020? Could August 2020 beat July 2019? Perhaps August 2020 could even win the tournament? We'll have to wait and see

The next match is June/July 1976 vs July 2021 at 4pm! I would say my usual outro, but I think we all know who's winning that one

Edited December 19, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[MP-R]

Crikey… didn’t expect 2020 to beat 1975. 1975 is of course hands down a ‘better’ heatwave but 2020, however brief, was a real heat and humidity monster.

[LetItSnow!]

18 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Crikey… didn’t expect 2020 to beat 1975. 1975 is of course hands down a ‘better’ heatwave but 2020, however brief, was a real heat and humidity monster.

One year soon I feel we're gonna have a heatwave like August 2020 but with the lasting power of 1975 or 1976 and it's gonna be hell.

[MP-R]

18 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

One year soon I feel we're gonna have a heatwave like August 2020 but with the lasting power of 1975 or 1976 and it's gonna be hell.

I think we would have to change climate zone for that to happen. All the longest heatwaves in our history have been due to lasting high pressure systems, often with a dry easterly feed. Our most humid heatwaves often involve trough influence which eventually takes over and cools things down, putting a cap on longevity. 

As much as I'd love a longer version of August 2020 as a heat lover, I don't expect one any time soon.

[CryoraptorA303]

42 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I think we would have to change climate zone for that to happen

That's happening very quickly now. I wasn't around but how many people here wrote off 40°C as being a very long time away yet a few years ago, just to have it happen in 2022? I know I completely wrote it off until at least 2050. I think there were some researchers who even completely wrote it off happening ever regardless of climate change.

With each goalpost of climate change, it's almost unanimously a case of "actually we reached that x years early/it's even worse than that now". And before the "what about x person who made y untrue claim", I don't mean them, those are lone actors who are free to make as preposterous claims as they like. I mean the overall consensus. I don't think any serious meterologist or climatologist was expecting 40°C, or anything like August 2020 even, before 2050 at the earliest. August 2003 was probably the first like this, that one was seen as a 1 in x hundred year heatwave even with climate change. Then since that we've had another 10 or more "1 in x hundred" year events.

To clarify, I don't quite think we'll see a 1976: 2020 temperatures edition all that quickly, that would still be a long way off yet. However the heatwaves will keep getting worse and worse each time they recur. Random hot days will get hotter, the random humid spikes will get more intense, the overall "warm" season will keep getting bigger with each year, and the very worst heatwaves (decade level) will now quite clearly involve temperatures above 38°C. From this point we'll see >34°C almost every year, >36°C every other year and >38°C every 5-10 years on average. And the chances will just keep going up with every passing year, and rather violently now. I also suspect the regional "dialects" of our climate will become more divergent and apparent with time as our weather becomes progressively more extreme.

Anyway, as to not derail the topic of the thread, I'll leave it there. The 4pm match is now going to be very late

[CryoraptorA303]

Apologies everyone, the June/July 1976 vs July 2021 match is delayed to 5:30pm

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[SummerShower]

The other target to reach, which I don't think will be too far off, is our first 20C CET month.  In theory we just need a period in 1976,1995 or 2018 to align perfectly with the calendar.

[MP-R]

13 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

That's happening very quickly now. I wasn't around but how many people here wrote off 40°C as being a very long time away yet a few years ago, just to have it happen in 2022? I know I completely wrote it off until at least 2050. I think there were some researchers who even completely wrote it off happening ever regardless of climate change.

With each goalpost of climate change, it's almost unanimously a case of "actually we reached that x years early/it's even worse than that now". And before the "what about x person who made y untrue claim", I don't mean them, those are lone actors who are free to make as preposterous claims as they like. I mean the overall consensus. I don't think any serious meterologist or climatologist was expecting 40°C, or anything like August 2020 even, before 2050 at the earliest. August 2003 was probably the first like this, that one was seen as a 1 in x hundred year heatwave even with climate change. Then since that we've had another 10 or more "1 in x hundred" year events.

To clarify, I don't quite think we'll see a 1976: 2020 temperatures edition all that quickly, that would still be a long way off yet. However the heatwaves will keep getting worse and worse each time they recur. Random hot days will get hotter, the random humid spikes will get more intense, the overall "warm" season will keep getting bigger with each year, and the very worst heatwaves (decade level) will now quite clearly involve temperatures above 38°C. From this point we'll see >34°C almost every year, >36°C every other year and >38°C every 5-10 years on average. And the chances will just keep going up with every passing year, and rather violently now. I also suspect the regional "dialects" of our climate will become more divergent and apparent with time as our weather becomes progressively more extreme.

Anyway, as to not derail the topic of the thread, I'll leave it there. The 4pm match is now going to be very late

I get your enthusiasm for climate change but, despite it, we will not change climate 'zone' in our lifetimes. That would be quite the feat.

Re hitting 40, it was impressive but I personally wasn't taken aback given how easily we hit nearly 39 in 2019 and 2003... For all we know 40 had already been hit somewhere in the UK in those heatwaves but no station recorded it.

Anyway, I look forward to seeing what my nominated 1947 comes up against next.

[CryoraptorA303]

11 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I get your enthusiasm for climate change but, despite it, we will not change climate 'zone' in our lifetimes. That would be quite the feat.

Define "zone". And enthusiasm? It's dread. I wish if anything the climate was cooling, but unfortunately there's nothing we can do about it at this point and the climate is runaway warming into oblivion.

[CryoraptorA303]

36 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

The other target to reach, which I don't think will be too far off, is our first 20C CET month.  In theory we just need a period in 1976,1995 or 2018 to align perfectly with the calendar.

July 2006 at 19.7C is the CET's hottest on record, so in theory a slightly more humid version of that should tip the balance. A particularly brutal August could do it as well with the lack of marine moderation. June has no chance at it due to the cooler oceans and airmasses, not for a while anyway. To my understanding the daily minima are significantly more important to the mean temp calculation that the maxima, e.g. June 2023 being the hottest on record despite "only" getting 32.2°C twice, the very high daily minima were the defining part of that one.

Edited December 19, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[CryoraptorA303]

June/July 1976 vs July 2021

Welcome all to the final game of today! We have June/July 1976, the holder of the hottest June day on record, sponsored by @Metwatch, against July 2021, the all-time record holder for Northern Ireland, sponsored by @matty40s!

As we're running nearly 2 hours late, let's get straight to the match!

Go!

June/July 1976

Daily maxima:
22nd: 28.4°C Stanstead Abbots (Maldon disqualified for huge temperature disparity)
23rd: 32.2°C Maldon
24th: 32.4°C Gillingham
25th: 33.5°C East Bergholt
26th: 35.4°C East Bergholt, North Heath
27th: 35.5°C Mayflower Park (S'ton)
28th: 34.5°C Cheltenham (35.6°C at Mayflower Park is far too high - Nearby station in S'ton records only 34.4°C, and most south coast stations are <34°C. The previous day of 35.5°C at M'flower is more accurate as the other S'ton station was at 35.3°C)
29th: 32.8°C Camarthen
30th: 32.3°C Brighton
1st: 33.5°C Cannington, Yeovilton
2nd: 35.7°C Cheltenham
3rd: 35.9°C Cheltenham
4th: 34.1°C Cheltenham, North Heath
5th: 33.1°C Benson, Mayflower Park (S'ton)
6th: 34.3°C Cheltenham (Cheltenham being so much higher than other stations in the area all the time is a bit suspicious, somewhat like with Heathrow today, but nearby Innsworth also shows elevated temps compared to the surrounding area on this day, so I'm willing to allow the explanation of hill shelter for Cheltenham)
7th: 32.7°C Cheltenham
8th: 31.1°C Benson
9th: 28.8°C Lossiemouth, East Dereham (Cambridge NIAB and Hampton Loade both disqualified)

Daily minima:
22nd: 15.6°C Lowestoft
23rd: 18.5°C St James's Park, Waddon
24th: 19.3°C Margate
25th: 20.3°C Margate
26th: 20.7°C Ventnor Park
27th: 21.1°C Ventnor Park
28th: 22.7°C Ventnor Park
29th: 22.2°C Ventnor Park
30th: 19.9°C Victoria Park (Swansea)
1st: 21.3°C Plymouth
2nd: 21.7°C Plymouth
3rd: 22.6°C Ventnor Park
4th: 21.9°C Wisley
5th: 20.5°C Eastbourne
6th: 19.3°C Neath
7th: 19.3°C Aberdare
8th: 18.0°C Cheltenham
9th: 17.9°C Enfield
10th: 16.9°C Manston

Total days of heatwave: 18
Total days above 30.0°C: 16
Total days above 34.0°C: 7
Total days above 36.0°C: 0
Hottest day: 35.9°C
Warmest night: 22.7°C
Average daily maximum: 33.1°C
Average daily minimum: 20.0°C
All-time record break: No

July 2021

Daily maxima:
16th: 28.7°C Coton-in-the-Elms
17th: 31.2°C Ballywatticock
18th: 31.6°C Heathrow
19th: 31.7°C Cirencester
20th: 32.2°C Heathrow
21st: 31.3°C Castlederg
22nd: 31.4°C Armagh
23rd: 30.1°C Castlederg

Daily minima:
16th: 16.5°C Killowen
17th: 17.6°C Mumbles Head
18th: 18.8°C Mumbles Head
19th: 20.2°C Ventnor Park
20th: 18.9°C Oxford
21st: 18.9°C Portland, Bodmin
22nd: 19.6°C Treknow
23rd: 19.4°C Mumbles Head
24th: 16.9°C Killowen

Total days of heatwave: 8
Total days above 30.0°C: 7
Total days above 34.0°C: 0
Total days above 36.0°C: 0
Hottest day: 32.2°C
Warmest night: 20.2°C
Average daily maximum: 31.0°C
Average daily minimum: 18.5°C
All-time record break: No

As we're running low on time and my concentration is running out, I am just going to skip to the final score. We all know who won this anyway.

Final score: June/July 1976 7-0 July 2021

June/July 1976 wins!

Congratulations Metwatch, June/July 1976 is advancing to round 2! Bad luck matty40s, July 2021 is off home to NI

As mentioned, this will now be the last game of the day. We have run too late to hold the last game and my concentration is completely gone. Apologies. The next game, July 1983 vs June 2022, will be held at some point on Thursday.

Edited December 19, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[WYorksWeather]

2 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

That's happening very quickly now. I wasn't around but how many people here wrote off 40°C as being a very long time away yet a few years ago, just to have it happen in 2022? I know I completely wrote it off until at least 2050. I think there were some researchers who even completely wrote it off happening ever regardless of climate change.

With each goalpost of climate change, it's almost unanimously a case of "actually we reached that x years early/it's even worse than that now". And before the "what about x person who made y untrue claim", I don't mean them, those are lone actors who are free to make as preposterous claims as they like. I mean the overall consensus. I don't think any serious meterologist or climatologist was expecting 40°C, or anything like August 2020 even, before 2050 at the earliest. August 2003 was probably the first like this, that one was seen as a 1 in x hundred year heatwave even with climate change. Then since that we've had another 10 or more "1 in x hundred" year events.

To clarify, I don't quite think we'll see a 1976: 2020 temperatures edition all that quickly, that would still be a long way off yet. However the heatwaves will keep getting worse and worse each time they recur. Random hot days will get hotter, the random humid spikes will get more intense, the overall "warm" season will keep getting bigger with each year, and the very worst heatwaves (decade level) will now quite clearly involve temperatures above 38°C. From this point we'll see >34°C almost every year, >36°C every other year and >38°C every 5-10 years on average. And the chances will just keep going up with every passing year, and rather violently now. I also suspect the regional "dialects" of our climate will become more divergent and apparent with time as our weather becomes progressively more extreme.

Anyway, as to not derail the topic of the thread, I'll leave it there. The 4pm match is now going to be very late

There was a mock-up Met Office forecast for the year 2050 from 2020 that showed widespread 40C-43C in the UK.

That chart seemed laughable until 2022...

[CryoraptorA303]

49 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

There was a mock-up Met Office forecast for the year 2050 from 2020 that showed widespread 40C-43C in the UK.

That chart seemed laughable until 2022...

Yes I remember that, it all seemed very far away until 40°C appeared for real in midterms... And it wasn't giving up. I didn't necessarily doubt that 40°C might have been possible by 2050, but I certainly ruled it out in the near future. 39°C appeared in a perturbation again this June and although that obviously didn't gain traction, it feels a bit uneasy that such high temps did pop up again so quickly. And of course this year we still had the hottest June on record and a record-setting September heatwave (yet it seems like an "off" year in comparison!). Add to that us seeing >34°C since 2015 in every year apart from 2021 and this year, although only barely, and of course every other extreme event that has occured in that time, and I am led to believe the empirical evidence is starting to suggest we are heading into a violent acceleration of the warming. I'm sure it won't be long until we experience such temperatures again. I'm sure we'll see >33.5°C next year anyhow.

Also, I never really did understand that chart. Surely if this is a SEly heatwave, the 43 zone would be over East Anglia, London, Surrey and maybe south-central England, and further west would be more 39-40? I don't really know where you'd get a hot enough straight easterly to push the air that far west, even in a really bad 2050 heatwave. I don't doubt somewhere like Harwarden or maybe Usk could see a 40°C in a bad 2050 heatwave, but the 43°C, if it does happen, would be much more likely to fall further east. Makes you wonder what the top 10 hottest day list will look like in 2050...

[matty40s]

3 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

 @Metwatch, against July 2021, the all-time record holder for Northern Ireland, sponsored by @matty40s!

As we're running nearly 2 hours late, let's get straight to 

June/July 1976 wins!

Congratulations Metwatch, June/July 1976 is advancing to round 2! Bad luck matty40s, July 2021 is off home to NI

As mentioned, this will now be the last game of the day. We have run too late to hold the last game and my concentration is completely gone. Apologies. The next game, July 1983 vs June 2022, will be held at some point on Thursday.

All I can say is, after spending Metwatches heatwave on or around the (brown) green in Shepton Mallet as our VW Devon air cooled engine  camper had given up the ghost. We spent weeks building straw huts, visited several cider houses with parents (age 7), and in my defence..

Didnt realise I was up against 2 months, not one.

[Sun Chaser]

On 18/12/2023 at 20:09, Summer of 95 said:

June-July 2018 would be stuffed without Wales! Although that was a very good summer here, much better than 2003, it rarely seemed to get extremely hot, it was more sustained warmth. 

That's what I liked so much about it! The heat was widespread and long-lasting even in the SW as opposed to the much more SE-focused and muggier 2019/2020 heatwaves

[CryoraptorA303]

Hello all! Apologies for Tuesday's last match being postponed at the last minute. I have been struggling with my ADHD over the last few days, however the show must go on and I am determined to finish round 1 today. Also apologies for forgetting about May/June 1978.

 

The last three matches of round 1 will be:

May/June 1978 vs June 2022 - ASAP (essentially as soon as I've finished, this one shouldn't take excessively long)

July 1983 vs July 2022 - 5pm unless I finish it earlier, in which case ASAP

August 2022 vs June 2023 vs September 2023 Battle Royale - 8pm, unless the second match is finished early, in which case I will move it forward

After this we will have our round 2 list and we can figure that one out. Round 2 will likely not begin until after Christmas.

Now then, lets begin the last match day of round 1! Who do you think will win these matches?

[CryoraptorA303]

May/June 1978 vs June 2022

Welcome everyone to the first match of the day! To kick off the last day of round 1, we have May/June 1978, sponsored by @A Face like Thunder, vs June 2022, July 2022's smaller cousin, sponsored by @WYorksWeather!

With that being said, let's begin the match!

GO!

May/June 1978

Daily maxima:
31st: 28.4°C Terrington St Clement
1st: 28.4°C March
2nd: 28.0°C Letchworth
3rd: 28.0°C Letchworth and Usk
4th: 28.8°C Poolewe

Daily minima:
31st: 18.0°C Port Talbot
1st: 17.1°C Diabaig
2nd: 16.4°C Diabaig
3rd: 15.0°C Coolkeeragh
4th: 17.1°C Pen-y-ffridd
5th: 14.5°C Inverness, Clacton-on-Sea

Total days of heatwave: 5
Total days above 30.0°C: 0
Total days above 34.0°C: 0
Total days above 36.0°C: 0
Hottest day: 28.8°C
Warmest night: 17.1°C
Average daily maximum: 28.3°C
Average daily minimum: 16.4°C
All-time record break: No

June 2022

Daily maxima:
15th: 28.2°C Kew Gardens
16th: 29.5°C Northolt
17th: 32.7°C Santon Downham, Heathrow
18th: 28.0°C Ringmer

Daily minima:
15th: 13.6°C Manston (Mylnefield very suspect)
16th: 14.7°C St Catherines (Faskally disqualified)
17th: 18.1°C Scampton
18th: 19.6°C St James's Park
19th: 12.4°C Crosby

Total days of heatwave: 4
Total days above 30.0°C: 1
Total days above 34.0°C: 0
Total days above 36.0°C: 0
Hottest day: 32.7°C
Warmest night: 19.6°C
Average daily maximum: 29.6°C
Average daily minimum: 15.7°C
All-time record break: No

Score

Total days of heatwave: May/June 1978 (1-0)
Total days above 30.0°C: June 2022 (1-1)
Total days above 34.0°C: It's a tie! (1-1)
Total days above 36.0°C: It's a tie! (1-1)
Hottest day: June 2022 (1-2)
Warmest night: June 2022 (1-3)
Average daily maximum: June 2022 (1-4)
Average daily minimum: May/June 1978 (2-4)
All-time record break: No

Final score: May/June 1978 2-4 June 2022

June 2022 wins!

As expected, June 2022 has comfortably beaten May/June 1978, although you'd think June 2022, being from such a demonic year, would've been a lot bigger than it really was. Congratulations WYorksWeather, June 2022 is advancing to round 2! Bad luck A Face like Thunder, May/June 1978 is off home to Letchworth

June 2022 is also the first winning true summer heatwave to score only four points, the only other heatwave to do so being May 1944.

Today's next match will be July 1983 vs July 2022 at 5pm! Is this our first July derby of the tournament? I'm not sure if we've had a July derby yet... Who do you think will win this match?

Edited December 21, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[A Face like Thunder]

Oh well, 0-3 for me, but at least I tried. I'm glad 1978 won the total days of the heatwave category, i remember this particular spell well in an otherwise turgid spring/summer. 

July 1983 would be my choice although I think, like 1978 v 2022, July 2022 is going to be hard to beat.

[CryoraptorA303]

Apologies, I have totally lost track of time. The July 1983 vs July 2022 match will be ASAP

[Freeze]

July 1983 is my last entry in the competition, hope it wins, but it is up against a powerhouse!