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Hottest Heatwave of All Time Championship


CryoraptorA303

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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham, West Sussex

I'm glad 1976 is gone, it's longevity was astonishing but has no match for the pure potency of today's style heatwaves. At least it opens up the competition.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Freeze said:

I'm glad 1976 is gone, it's longevity was astonishing but has no match for the pure potency of today's style heatwaves. At least it opens up the competition.

Well, this wasn't the reaction I was expecting...

While I would say that June/July 1976 is still a really notable heatwave, with no other achieving 16 consecutive days above 30.0°C so far (although August 1995 did achieve more 30°C days overall if I'm not mistaken) or surpassing it's 35.5°C June record (yet), I do agree that it's honestly overrated and its feats are rapidly becoming outdated. August 1995 will take a bit longer to become outdated purely because of how long the heatwave conditions lasted.

Given another 10 or so years, I'm sure the 16 day 30°C record will be surpassed the next time an August 2003 or July 2006 spawns in, and I have no doubt in my mind that we're only 5-10 years away from a heatspike in June that will surpass 1976's 35.5°C, which will rule out the last of 1976's feats and make it truly outdated.

EDIT: Looks like July 2006 got close with 14 consecutive days of 30°C or higher, and August 1995 in total achieved 22 days above 30°C, although "only" 11 at a time. So there's really no doubt in my mind that the next time one of these heatwaves materialises, 1976 will be surpassed.

Edited by CryoraptorA303
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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

A great competition but a great pity in my view that these two heavyweights should be pitted against each other in anything but the Final. To my mind, there will only ever be one summer to remember weather-wise, and that was 1976. At the end of the day, it would be lovely if all the nominations could be placed in 1...2...3... order, although I accept that this could be quite a task to complete.   

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
2 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

A great competition but a great pity in my view that these two heavyweights should be pitted against each other in anything but the Final. To my mind, there will only ever be one summer to remember weather-wise, and that was 1976. At the end of the day, it would be lovely if all the nominations could be placed in 1...2...3... order, although I accept that this could be quite a task to complete.   

I intend to compile some sort of ranked list like this at the end of the tournament 👍

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Some interesting results, especially given 1983 and 1976 were better than their competitors. Would be interesting see these matches with sunshine taken into consideration.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
3 hours ago, MP-R said:

Some interesting results, especially given 1983 and 1976 were better than their competitors. Would be interesting see these matches with sunshine taken into consideration.

That's quite subjective, which is the reason for this competition in the first place.

If absolute sunshine was factored, then yes that'd sway it in the favour of the long haul heatwaves. Average sunshine however I don't see making much of a difference.

I'm not sure how many more criteria could be added to try and swerve it in their favour; at some point the laser-focus heatwaves just mathematically surpass them. I'm willing to consider adding sunshine as criteria in the next season if we do have one, although especially for older heatwaves this data will be hard to find. Temperature by area is another possible criterion to be added, however again, point me to somewhere with this data especially for the older heatwaves and I'll add it.

Please note that "I prefer it" is not a mathematical criterion. Something like July 2021 or June 2010 would probably be my favourite heatwave out of the nominee list, however that's not what this competition is trying to measure.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately

August 1947 vs May/June 1947

Welcome all to the penultimate match of Round 2! For this match we have our first and only year derby of the tournament, with August 1947, sponsored by @MP-R, set against one of its own, May/June 1947, perhaps the most notable early June heatwave to date, sponsored by @hillbilly!

As we're running late, let's begin the match!

GO!

August 1947

Daily maxima:
13th: 28.9°C Oxford, Wisley, East Park (S'ton), Farnborough
14th: 30.0°C Bournemouth
15th: 32.2°C Bournemouth
16th: 33.9°C Bournemouth, East Park (S'ton)
17th: 33.9°C East Park (S'ton)
18th: 32.8°C East Park (S'ton)
19th: 30.6°C East Park (S'ton)
20th: 29.4°C Bournemouth, East Park (S'ton)

Daily minima:
13th: 17.8°C Margate
14th: 18.3°C Bude
15th: 18.3°C Various
16th: 20.6°C Falmouth
17th: 21.1°C Sidmouth
18th: 20.6°C Bournemouth, East Park (S'ton)
19th: 20.0°C Penzance
20th: 18.9°C Falmouth, Ilfracombe
21st: 18.9°C Mount Wise

Total days of heatwave: 8
Total days above 30.0°C: 6
Total days above 34.0°C: 0
Total days above 36.0°C: 0
Hottest day: 33.9°C
Warmest night: 21.1°C
Average daily maximum: 31.5°C
Average daily minimum: 19.4°C
All-time record break: No

May/June 1947

Daily maxima:
29th: 30.6°C Cranwell
30th: 30.6°C Cambridge (Botanical), Oxford
31st: 30.6°C Cranwell, Cambridge (Botanical), St James's Park
1st: 31.1°C Cambridge (Botanical)
2nd: 32.2°C Cranwell, Oxford, St James's Park
3rd: 33.9°C Cambridge (Botanical), St James's Park
4th: 28.9°C Cromer

Daily minima:
29th: 16.7°C East Park (S'ton), Colwyn Bay
30th: 18.3°C St James's Park, Bexhill, St Catherines
31st: 18.9°C Folkestone
1st: 17.8°C Macclesfield
2nd: 20.0°C Hampstead
3rd: 21.1°C Margate
4th: 17.8°C St James's Park, Margate
5th: 15.0°C Cambridge (Botanical)

Total days of heatwave: 7
Total days above 30.0°C: 6
Total days above 34.0°C: 0
Total days above 36.0°C: 0
Hottest day: 33.9°C
Warmest night: 21.1°C
Average daily maximum: 31.1°C
Average daily minimum: 18.2°C
All-time record break: No

Score

Total days of heatwave: August 1947 (1-0)
Total days above 30.0°C: It's a tie! (2-1)
Total days above 34.0°C: It's a tie! (2-1)
Total days above 36.0°C: It's a tie! (2-1)
Hottest day: It's a tie! (3-2)
Warmest night: It's a tie! (4-3)
Average daily maximum: August 1947 (5-3)
Average daily minimum: August 1947 (6-3)
All-time record break: It's a tie! (6-3)

Final score: August 1947 6-3 May/June 1947

August 1947 wins!

As is fitting for a year derby, two very evenly matched heatwaves, however August 1947 has proven itself to be the stronger heatwave in the average stats. Congratulations MP-R, August 1947 is moving on to the quarterfinals! Bad luck hillbilly, May/June 1947 is off home to... various places 🤔

Today's second match, and the last match of Round 2, will be July 2006 vs July 2016 at 5pm! Who do you think will win that match? 🥳

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
42 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

That's quite subjective, which is the reason for this competition in the first place.

If absolute sunshine was factored, then yes that'd sway it in the favour of the long haul heatwaves. Average sunshine however I don't see making much of a difference.

I'm not sure how many more criteria could be added to try and swerve it in their favour; at some point the laser-focus heatwaves just mathematically surpass them. I'm willing to consider adding sunshine as criteria in the next season if we do have one, although especially for older heatwaves this data will be hard to find. Temperature by area is another possible criterion to be added, however again, point me to somewhere with this data especially for the older heatwaves and I'll add it.

Please note that "I prefer it" is not a mathematical criterion. Something like July 2021 or June 2010 would probably be my favourite heatwave out of the nominee list, however that's not what this competition is trying to measure.

Data availability is indeed the problem. In the same way as I wouldn't do one of these competitions for cold spells without detailed information about snowfall totals, but that's sadly harder to come by the further back you go than temperatures on their own. 

In this case, though, sunshine totals are not subjective at all. It's another data set, but I understand it's hard to include in something like this.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
2 hours ago, MP-R said:

Data availability is indeed the problem. In the same way as I wouldn't do one of these competitions for cold spells without detailed information about snowfall totals, but that's sadly harder to come by the further back you go than temperatures on their own. 

Indeed, I think a cold spell version of this would be basically impossible, especially considering the number of cold spells pre-1900 stays consistent or increases, while the number of notable heatwaves before 1911 dramatically declines before data gathering would really become an issue. There would be no point to it.

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

In this case, though, sunshine totals are not subjective at all. It's another data set, but I understand it's hard to include in something like this.

I agree, I'd even like to include this were I able to find all the necessary data. I just don't think it would make all that much of a difference in the long run, not only because there aren't enough categories in existence that could turn the tide enough, but in the average for each category, I'm fairly sure the laser-focus heatwaves are going to win those anyway. At some point the slow-burner just loses mathematically no matter what 🤷‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
On 19/12/2023 at 18:33, WYorksWeather said:

There was a mock-up Met Office forecast for the year 2050 from 2020 that showed widespread 40C-43C in the UK.

image.thumb.png.3a7b92935ad39ebc793276bc26ac0ec8.png

That chart seemed laughable until 2022...

My 58th birthday! 😅 

2 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Indeed, I think a cold spell version of this would be basically impossible, especially considering the number of cold spells pre-1900 stays consistent or increases, while the number of notable heatwaves before 1911 dramatically declines before data gathering would really become an issue. There would be no point to it.

I agree, I'd even like to include this were I able to find all the necessary data. I just don't think it would make all that much of a difference in the long run, not only because there aren't enough categories in existence that could turn the tide enough, but in the average for each category, I'm fairly sure the laser-focus heatwaves are going to win those anyway. At some point the slow-burner just loses mathematically no matter what 🤷‍♂️

Yes for some heatwaves the difference is too great for winners to change hands. Case in point might be August 2020 vs 1975 - the former notable for its cloudiness and high humidity rather than the latter which was notable for its sunshine (rather overshadowed by the following summer).

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately

July 2006 vs July 2016

Welcome all to the final match of Round 2! 🥳 Apologies for being late, you'd think I'd do better for the final match of the round 💩 For the last match, we have July 2006, the joint-hottest July on record, sponsored by @Row w, against July 2016, sponsored by @Summer of 95!

Without further comment, let's begin the last match of Round 2!

GO!

July 2006

Daily maxima:
16th: 31.2°C High Beach
17th: 32.7°C Heathrow
18th: 33.7°C High Beach
19th: 36.5°C Wisley
20th: 33.1°C Santon Downham
21st: 33.2°C Aldenham School
22nd: 31.6°C Cambridge (NIAB)
23rd: 30.2°C Stradbroke
24th: 32.0°C Mickleham
25th: 34.1°C Charlwood
26th: 34.0°C Faversham
27th: 30.9°C Writtle
28th: 30.1°C East Bergholt
29th: 30.0°C Charsfield
30th: 28.2°C Houghton Hall

Daily minima:
16th: 16.4°C Margate
17th: 18.9°C Eastbourne
18th: 20.1°C Ventnor Park
19th: 22.3°C Ventnor Park
20th: 20.5°C Cambridge (Botanical)
21st: 18.6°C Hunstanton
22nd: 20.4°C Hunstanton
23rd: 18.1°C Cambridge (NIAB), Solent (Portsmouth)
24th: 17.4°C Hunstanton, Cromer, Margate
25th: 18.5°C St James's Park
26th: 21.2°C St James's Park
27th: 20.5°C Hampton
28th: 17.9°C St James's Park, Margate
29th: 18.7°C Skegness
30th: 19.3°C Margate
31st: 18.0°C Bognor Regis

Total days of heatwave: 15
Total days above 30.0°C: 14
Total days above 34.0°C: 3
Total days above 36.0°C: 1
Hottest day: 36.5°C
Warmest night: 22.3°C
Average daily maximum: 32.1°C
Average daily minimum: 19.2°C
All-time record break: No

July 2016

Daily maxima:
17th: 28.1°C Cambridge (Botanical)
18th: 30.2°C Rodney Stoke
19th: 33.5°C Brize Norton
20th: 31.4°C Heathrow

Daily minima:
17th: 18.7°C St James's Park
18th: 17.5°C Slapton
19th: 19.9°C Treknow
20th: 22.3°C Heathrow
21st: 17.6°C Cromer

Total days of heatwave: 4
Total days above 30.0°C: 3
Total days above 34.0°C: 0
Total days above 36.0°C 0
Hottest day: 33.5°C
Warmest night: 22.3°C
Average daily maximum: 30.8°C
Average daily minimum: 19.2°C
All-time record break: No

Score

Total days of heatwave: July 2006 (1-0)
Total days above 30.0°C: July 2006 (2-0)
Total days above 36.0°C: July 2006 (3-0)
Hottest day: July 2006 (4-0)
Warmest night: It's a tie! (5-1)
Average daily maximum: July 2006 (6-1)
Average daily minimum: It's a tie! (7-2)
All-time record break: It's a tie! (7-2)

Final score: July 2006 7-2 July 2016

July 2006 wins!

In an expected yet still impressive victory, July 2006 has shown yet again that it is a serious heatwave and shouldn't be taken lightly. July 2016, all things considered, still put up a decent fight I think, managing to match July 2006 twice. Congratulations Row w, July 2006 is through to the quarterfinals! Bad luck Summer of 95, July 2016 is off home to Brize Norton 😆

And with that, Round 2 is over! The final stats will be posted shortly. Stay tuned! 🫡

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately

Round 2 final stats:

Quarterfinalists (chronological order):
August 1911 @Harry's House
August 1947 @MP-R
August 1995 @AderynCoch
August 2003 @Summer8906
July 2006 @Row w
June 2017 @WYorksWeather
June/July 2018 @Sun Chaser
July 2019 @R Alto
August 2020 @LetItSnow!
July 2022 @Summer of 95

Congratulations to all of our quarterfinalists! 👏

Eliminated in Round 2 (chronological order):
August 1932
May 1944
May/June 1947
June 1957
June/July 1976
August 1990
August 1997
July 2016
June 2022
August 2022

Bad luck if your nominee was eliminated! 😔

Total points (highest to lowest, whole tournament):
July 2019: 18
August 1911: 15
July 2006: 14
July 2022: 13
August 1995: 13
August 2003: 13
August 1932: 13
August 1947: 12
August 2020: 12
June/July 2018: 11
June 2017: 11
August 1990: 10
June/July 1976: 10
June 1957: 9
August 2022: 8
August 1997: 8
July 2016: 7
May/June 1947: 7
May 1944: 5
June 2022: 4
July 1959: 4
September 2016: 4
August 1955: 3
September/October 2011: 3
August/September 1906: 3
September 2023: 2
July 1983: 2
May/June 1978: 2
August 1975: 2
July 2013: 2
September 1973: 1
July 1959: 1
June 1995: 1
May 1922: 1
July 1923: 1
August 1930: 1
June 2010: 1
July 2014: 1
June 2023: 0
July 2021: 0
July 1921: 0

Eliminated overall:
August/September 1906 (Round 1)
June 1995 (Round 1)
July 1921 (Round 1)
May 1922 (Round 1)
July 1923 (Round 1)
August 1930 (Round 1)
June 2010 (Round 1)
September/October 2011 (Round 1)
July 2013 (Round 1)
July 2014 (Round 1)
August 1955 (Round 1)
September 2016 (Round 1)
July 1959 (Round 1)
August 1959 (Round 1)
September 1973 (Round 1)
August 1975 (Round 1)
July 2021 (Round 1)
July 1983 (Round 1)
June 2023 (Round 1)
September 2023 (Round 1)
August 1932 (Round 2)
June 1957 (Round 2)
August 1997 (Round 2)
June 2022 (Round 2)
August 2022 (Round 2)
August 1990 (Round 2)
May 1944 (Round 2)
June/July 1976 (Round 2)
May/June 1947 (Round 2)
July 2016 (Round 2)

Thank you all for your continued involvement in this tournament. This would not be possible without you. Let's have a round of applause for all nominators and contestants, past and present! 👏The quarterfinals matches will be decided tomorrow. Until then, thank you all again for playing 🫡

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately

Hottest Heatwave of All Time Championship - The Quarterfinals

Welcome all to the Quarterfinals of the Hottest Heatwave of All Time Championship! Congratulations to those who have made it this far! 🥳

For this round, matches will be again computationally randomised. The rules and criteria will be the same as the previous rounds. The winners of each match will advance to the semifinals, and the losers will be eliminated from the tournament. At the end of the round, the five losers will have a final five-way match to decide 10th-6th place of the tournament. Tied contestants in the final match will have 1v1s until every contestant has earned points and can be ranked from 10th to 6th.

After randomisation, here are the matches!

July 2022 @Summer of 95 vs June/July 2018 @Sun Chaser - Jan 7th 3pm

August 2020 @LetItSnow! vs August 2003 @Summer8906 - Jan 8th 3pm

August 1947 @MP-R vs June 2017 @WYorksWeather - Jan 9th 3pm

August 1911 @Harry's House vs July 2019 @R Alto - Jan 10th 3pm

August 1995 @AderynCoch vs July 2006 @Row w - Jan 11th 5pm

Some very interesting matches in there! Looks like August 1947 and June 2017 both got the matchup they wanted in them being the only one the other has a chance at defeating, guarenteeing one of our underdogs a seat in the semifinals! August 2020 vs August 2003 and August 1995 vs July 2006 will also be the matches to watch out for in this round!

With that, the Quarterfinals of the Hottest Heatwave of All Time Championship have officially begun! 🥳 Who do you think will win these matches?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, whatever your comp decides, there's one heatwave that trumps all others: 16 consecutive days at 32C or above, in 1976! :drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Well, whatever your comp decides, there's one heatwave that trumps all others: 16 consecutive days at 32C or above, in 1976! :drunk-emoji:

Consecutive days above 30°C isn't everything, as July 2022 showed... August 2003, August 2020 and probably July 2006 would have likely been able to beat June/July 1976 if July 2022 was able to do it. It wouldn't have been implausible for July 2019 and August 1995 to beat it either. It may have the highest consecutive 30°C, highest days above 34°C and the all-time June record but it isn't at the top in any other category, not even total 30°C days or total days of heatwave which belongs to August 1995. June/July 1976 lost fairly and there's nothing it could have done.

EDIT: It's status as highest days above 34°C as an undefeated feat is a little bit dubious, considering August 2020 is only one day behind it and two of those days were above 36°C... in the same heatwave. I'd say August 2020 pulled the better feat, but technically 1976 holds that one.

Edited by CryoraptorA303
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Consecutive days above 30°C isn't everything, as July 2022 showed... August 2003, August 2020 and probably July 2006 would have likely been able to beat June/July 1976 if July 2022 was able to do it. It wouldn't have been implausible for July 2019 and August 1995 to beat it either. It may have the highest consecutive 30°C, highest days above 34°C and the all-time June record but it isn't at the top in any other category, not even total 30°C days or total days of heatwave which belongs to August 1995. June/July 1976 lost fairly and there's nothing it could have done.

But nothing since has ever come close? 🤔

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
Just now, Methuselah said:

But nothing since has ever come close? 🤔

August 1995 outright exceeded it in terms of total 30°C days by some margin, and July 2006 got close to challenging the consecutive record. Not to mention numerous heatwaves have exceeded 1976's max temp by several degrees at this point, and August 2020 almost matched the >34°C record while also achieving a far, far higher average daily maximum.

To ignore every other feat in favour of just one, and rule a heatwave the best based on that, is completely silly and defeats the entire purpose of the competition.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

August 1995 outright exceeded it in terms of total 30°C days by some margin, and July 2006 got close to challenging the consecutive record. Not to mention numerous heatwaves have exceeded 1976's max temp by several degrees at this point, and August 2020 almost matched the >34°C record while also achieving a far, far higher average daily maximum.

To ignore every other feat in favour of just one, and rule a heatwave the best based on that, is completely silly and defeats the entire purpose of the competition.

Nonsense! Sixteen straight days @32C plus has never been bettered. It's a fact, whether you or I like it, or not. 🤔

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Nonsense! Sixteen straight days @32C plus has never been bettered. It's a fact, whether you or I like it, or not. 🤔

Okay, no other heatwave on record has surpassed 16 consecutive days above 30°C. It also holds the all-time June record and the highest 34°C days.

However, it has been surpassed in:

- Total days of heatwave (August 1995)

- Total days above 30°C (August 1995)

- Total days above 36°C (August 1990, August 2003, July 2006, July 2015 even though that's not even a heatwave, July 2019, July 2020 same as 2015, August 2020, July 2022, and if you want to backdate then August 1911 and August 1932 both achieved higher temps, not to mention 1976 didn't even reach 36°C)

- Average maximum temperature (July 2019, August 2020, July 2022)

- Average minimum temperature (July 2019, August 2020, July 2022 and if you want to backdate it then a couple others reached higher too)

- Hottest day (see above)

- Warmest night (August 1990, August 2003, July 2022)

- All-time record, well it didn't even set one at the time, let alone stand up to future records.

June/July 1976 is impressive but it isn't at the top in most categories, and enough of these categories coming together can mean it loses. It's a simple mathematical equation.

EDIT: Also to note, August 2020 does indeed beat 1976 in feat. It's six 34°C or higher days are consecutive, while 1976 only managed four consecutive at a time.

Edited by CryoraptorA303
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

32C!

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Posted
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters, warm, early spring, cool, gentle summer, stormy autumn
  • Location: Kent, unfortunately
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

32C!

That's not a record. The official record is consecutive days above 30°C. The next highest is 34°C. If a heatwave in the future were to get 17 or more consecutive days above 30°C but not 32°C it'd still be considered to have beaten 1976's record as 30.0-33.9°C is considered equal feat. Same as if a heatwave achieved 14 days above 33.3°C for example, it still didn't beat 1976's record even though you'd probably agree 14 consecutive days above 33.3°C is a greater overall feat than 16 days above 32.2°C. Actually, you probably wouldn't 😄🤷‍♂️

Because of that same principal, as I say, August 2020 defeats 1976 in 34°C days as it had six consecutive >34°C vs 1976 "only" getting four at a time, even though it doesn't defeat 1976's >30.0°C record by some distance.

As these different records exist, this tournament is measuring them all and adding them up to determine which heatwave defeats the other overall with all things considered, and unfortunately for 1976 fans, July 2022 defeated it by some margin. You want to consider sunshine? 1976 gets a point for way more total sunshine hours, then July 2022 achieves a higher average and wins another point. Metre-for-metre? Okay, 1976 gets a point for more metre-for-metre days above x degrees. Then July 2022 absolutely smashes it in the averages with the two hottest metre-for-metre days on record at the time (August 2022 actually defeated even that to my knowledge, despite having a much lower maximum temperature than July 19th) and wins another point. Overall, no matter how many metrics you take into account, July 2022 mathematically defeats June/July 1976 in any case. That's the end of it.

Edited by CryoraptorA303
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

That's not a record. The official record is consecutive days above 30°C. The next highest is 34°C. If a heatwave in the future were to get 17 or more consecutive days above 30°C but not 32°C it'd still be considered to have beaten 1976's record as 30.0-33.9°C is considered equal feat. Same as if a heatwave achieved 14 days above 33.3°C for example, it still didn't beat 1976's record even though you'd probably agree 14 consecutive days above 33.3°C is a greater overall feat than 16 days above 32.2°C. Actually, you probably wouldn't 😄🤷‍♂️

Because of that same principal, as I say, August 2020 defeats 1976 in 34°C days as it had six consecutive >34°C vs 1976 "only" getting four at a time, even though it doesn't defeat 1976's >30.0°C record by some distance.

As these different records exist, this tournament is measuring them all and adding them up to determine which heatwave defeats the other overall with all things considered, and unfortunately for 1976 fans, July 2022 defeated it by some margin. You want to consider sunshine? 1976 gets a point for way more total sunshine hours, then July 2022 achieves a higher average and wins another point. Metre-for-metre? Okay, 1976 gets a point for more metre-for-metre days above x degrees. Then July 2022 absolutely smashes it in the averages with the hottest metre-for-metre day on record at the time (although August 2022 actually defeated even that to my knowledge, despite having a much lower maximum temperature than July 19th) and wins another point. Overall, no matter how many metrics you take into account, July 2022 mathematically defeats June/July 1976 in any case. That's the end of it.

Well then, let's just agree to disagree -- but your arguments do not convince me. 2+2 does not equal 5! 🤔

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
4 hours ago, Methuselah said:

Well, whatever your comp decides, there's one heatwave that trumps all others: 16 consecutive days at 32C or above, in 1976! :drunk-emoji:

It all depends on how you want to measure heatwaves (or in the case of heat-spikes like 2022 or 2019)

2 biggest factors are duration and extremeness:

For duration, it has to be hands down 1976. Then August 1975 another one, July 2006 as well, August 1995.

For most extreme values, it would be July 2022 then July 2019, then August 2003.

For both most extreme and longest duration combined (best way to measure heatwaves imho) I'd say August 2003 takes the crown at the moment, followed by June 1976 in close second, then August 2020, then August 1995. 2003 and 2019 had 2 seperate spikes of 36C or above within one heatwave so very impressive to me. But the decent intensity of heat in 1976 (above 32C) along with such a long duration of that 32C threshold or above makes it most impressive alongside 2003. If 1976 had 2 seperate days which officially reached 36C or above, it would edge above 2003.

P.S a full 2003 vs 1976 battle would be very interesting to see if that could be done post competiton for fun!

Edited by Metwatch
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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

Without diving into the whole 1976 vs. other heatwaves thing too much, if only to say that duration is not the only aspect, and neither is extremeness, and it's hard to do a fully objective description of which is a more 'impressive' heatwave unless we have one that took so many of the records that there was no doubt. 

Just thinking about a few other stats that could be thrown in. How does it work if we do rainfall? Say, most consecutive days with only trace amounts of rainfall, or average precip per day of heatwave? I know that 1976 was part of a notable drought, so would that boost it up the ranking at all?

In any case, I don't think we'll have to wait too long for a heatwave that will objectively smash 1976's remaining longevity records. I'll pencil it in for before 2030.

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