Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[CoventryWeather]

The colder and more wintry weather comes when schools go back - how ironic! I guess if the GFS came to reality there would be a few snow days especially on North Facing coasts. 

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

On 01/01/2024 at 19:11, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

As this is all still well in FI I'm usually loth to comment (T90 is about where I start to get interested), but given the hysteria in here I thought I'd post the ECMWF Graphcast Google AI take on this (and I believe this model has been verifying better than any of the 'big 3' recently). Probably useful to view these with one eye on the latest UKMO output:

          

So as some people have already pointed out, there's at least an evens chance this upcoming spell is a UK high setup, so cold/foggy, but mostly dry. And after that, the most common evolution is a south-easterly sink. Nothing decided yet, but a little early for euphoria/hysteria I'd have thought.

I posted the above two days ago, so I thought it might be interesting to see how this experimental AI based model is looking now for the same timeframes:

         

I'd say that's not bad at all, and certainly a bit more consistent than most of the main models? Interestingly it's also now showing the beginnings of retrogression later in the run:

   

So whilst it seems the most likely outcome next week is a UK centred HP, (so cold, frosty, foggy but not a great deal of precipitation), this may indeed be the 'hors d'oeuvres' for those hoping for something more wintry.

Edited January 3 by Pennine Ten Foot Drifts
Sp.

[Day 10]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Some of these NH plots are ridiculous !!

Miss Iberia looks like finishing a poor third, after Miss UK takes second just behind Miss Greenland who looks set to take the 2023/24 crown!

[geordiekev]

12 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The strength of signal on the 252 mean shows that there's going to be a lot of ensemble support.  

Liking the signal to keep this crucial low seperated, as it's effect on the WAA up the ESB is very much governed by it & less gefs absorbing it than on 0z, which was the spoiler, so gaining in confidence. 60/40

It certainly shows how global interactions across the other side of the globe can have knock on effect, by squeezing the vortex limbs.

If the 0z GFS, which has been absorbing it on every morning the last few days keeps it seperate, then I'll defo let myself ramp a little.

Edited January 3 by geordiekev
TyPo

[Scott Ingham]

35 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

If the latest CANSIP seasonal is anything to go by blocking could last through February & March. 

Current MJO/GWO progression does favour the likelihood of repeated periods of blocking/cold spells with a waxing & waning of blocking inbetween. 

We are entering the most exciting winter period probably since 2009/2010. 

Yes with a propensity for a scandi high to take the lead going into February in my opinion 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs still going strong with its mean..excellent really cold by 15th!

[northwestsnow]

GEFS will be very interesting...

day 12mean

[Retron]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

GEFS will be very interesting...

If it's fun you're after, just look at ptb 15 from 240 onwards - especially the T2Ms over the North Sea!

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

[on the coast]

1 minute ago, Retron said:

If it's fun you're after, just look at ptb 15 from 240 onwards - especially the T2Ms over the North Sea!

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

Thats a cold sea

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Retron said:

If it's fun you're after, just look at ptb 15 from 240 onwards - especially the T2Ms over the North Sea!

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

yes please ..

[geordiekev]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

yes please ..

Bit too far North

[northwestsnow]

When GEFS mean looks like this at day 10 we can legitimately begin the 10 day higher res countdown 

Here's hoping EC det tonight is in the same ball park...

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

When GEFS mean looks like this at day 10 we can legitimately begin the 10 day higher res countdown 

Here's hoping EC det tonight is in the same ball park...

Just waiting for that "ecm not looking great early on" comment!!!!!!its running now.....

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

When GEFS mean looks like this at day 10 we can legitimately begin the 10 day higher res countdown 

Here's hoping EC det tonight is in the same ball park...

The op isn't even a outlier at the end..that's saying something!

[Man With Beard]

28 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I just know my ecm gona be a right party pooper lol!!!cmon behave for once buddy!!!!!.........

I'm not really bothered about the ECM op tonight beyond D6 - it's all about the mean

[AO-]

I think we have to keep an eye on the 15th for the real freezer. Member 28 as example. Similar to the operational at day 12.

[Southern Storm]

18 hours ago, bluearmy said:

I think the 00z or 12z runs  tomorrow will be the first runs to be initialised with the reversal at the top of the strat in the starting data 

if we are to have any shifts in the nwp as a consequence then we don’t have long to wait 

Looks like your post from yesterday was on the money, great shout!  The 12z have been amazing across the board  so far, we just need the ECM to make it a full house

[geordiekev]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

When GEFS mean looks like this at day 10 we can legitimately begin the 10 day higher res countdown 

Here's hoping EC det tonight is in the same ball park...

Yip, 2 Highs both propped up by lows, squeezing the life out of the vortex, in turn self perpetuating the high signals.

Still keeping feet on the ground though, now we have other models in on the countdown, to see if consensus 

 

[Guest]

So I come home from work check out the charts expecting us to be engulfed by an enormous Iberian high!

Only to find  Clucking bell!... the North Sea has frozen over!

If you look close enough I'm sure I can see Nigel Farage patrolling the Kent coast on a sledge with a team of huskies!

[Spah1]

I really don’t understand the fascination with bone dry, cold, Sunny Easterlies. Some might get the odd shower under this set up surely you need lower heights. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

stronger easterly developing…..I think we have the initial upgrades needed going forward for prolonging the cold

 

BFTP

[Stuie]

You can debate how much the NAO factors into our cold but nicely negative for a couple of weeks.

[Josh Rubio]

Just now, Spah1 said:

I really don’t understand the fascination with bone dry, cold, Sunny Easterlies. Some might get the odd shower under this set up surely you need lower heights. 

Given all the rain we’ve had, as well as endless cloudy and dull days, I think it’ll be welcome by many. Be nice to see a bit of sun at the very least. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

If this backtracks now I'm gonna need one hell of a lot of time to recover.

Sublime ensembles rolling.

The touch paper has been lit.

The crowd are on the pitch they think it's all over...it is for the zonal mild and iberian Heights crew.

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I really don’t understand the fascination with bone dry, cold, Sunny Easterlies. Some might get the odd shower under this set up surely you need lower heights. 

Priming the ground, so when it falls it settles! Hopefully 2 weeks of cold should be enough before the good stuff hopefully comes