Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[ICE COLD]

-13s in Scotland and -10s clearing the south coast . Come on

[Polar Maritime]

Bitterly cold Northerly into the run by the GFS .

[Captain Shortwave]

Secondary low forming in very cold air north of Scotland that should head southwards and yes the Atlantic ridge is reamplifying.

 

As I said a couple of days ago, an Atlantic ridge is fine to sustain cold if we can keep the pattern upstream conductive to reinvigorate the pattern, the northerly on the GFS is as potent as I have seen in many years.

 

Edited January 6 by Captain Shortwave

[Mike Poole]

Day 10 on the GFS 6z:

Right on the money.  I don’t think we actually need one of the runs with the big cross polar split to verify, with the Atlantic dead as a dodo, this ridge into Greenland more than delivers.  And in terms of the split vortex, we do need that portion to remain over Canada in some form, to stop the thing going west-based, there’s a balance there because if it pokes its nose in too much the ridge can’t get properly established in the first place.

[Ice Day]

20 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Its not a major warming that will split the Vortex, But it is a strong one that displaces the PV.

Isn't this a fantastic winter for model  viewing, so much going off its hard to keep up with!

Absolutely this.  If you're not enjoying these runs, you need to find another hobby.

Stunning output at 246, northeasterly incoming now

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Christ almighty fantastic run!

[nick sussex]

Amen , the GFS 06 hrs didn’t follow the misery model .

Nice little mini Omega block .

[Ali1977]

WOW, that’s crazy cold right there -10/-15c nights at least for the usual cold spots 

[Purga]

Nice one Cyril - for the West Country

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

That is serious cold weather

 

BFTP

[ANYWEATHER]

31 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

@ANYWEATHER

Ive quoted Matt Hugo as he puts my thoughts spoken about 3 weeks ago in a much more eloquent way being dyslexic but it’s the lag impacts of the drivers spoken about by Matt. 

The 15th was just a guess based on my own knowledge on timings of lag. Nothing ground breaking or impressive just time spent studying gdsm products and making a call for this date 3 weeks ago that we’d see the charts chuck out a deep cold spell from this date onwards

Thanks, but as of now, any deep cold ,the way I'm seeing it is still in the realms ,unfortunately for cold lovers in the dreams of computer models. But thanks for the clarification. ,!☺

[Polar Maritime]

A very unstable Northerly, Not something we see in the charts very often.. Thees little systems swirling about everywhere 

Edited January 6 by Polar Maritime

[Ali1977]

This is a severe prolonged cold spell playing out - should it happen.  Embedded cold, snow events anywhere, severe frosts, frozen flooded fields etc…

[Mike Poole]

Fantastic model watching.  The GFS rolls out 3 good ones on the bounce, seems like it can do no wrong.  And the ECM has to go and sit on the naughty step.

Just random chance in the envelope of uncertainties, but it makes for good viewing.

[AO-]

The Beast from the East. Cold hp at Scandinavia with the shortwave pushing south. 

[Pembroke Dangler]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

WOW, that’s crazy cold right there -10/-15c nights at least for the usual cold spots 

Beautiful chart and should lock in with the Omega style block forming between Greenland and Iceland, that Low over the Azores could move east and prevent the heights escaping over us and bring a special snow event to southern u.k.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Look north at 270..don't tell me that exceptionally cold air will make it!

[February1978]

And a reload coming from NNE?

[Ali1977]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Look north at 270..don't tell me that exceptionally cold air will make it!

Looks like it’s possible - iM now back in full on ramp mode  

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

This is a severe prolonged cold spell playing out - should it happen.  Embedded cold, snow events anywhere, severe frosts, frozen flooded fields etc…

Oh yea..people off work,schools closed the lot!

[Matt Jones]

Great run there if it verifies, loving the heights to the NW, if I'm being picky I'd like the winds veering east a touch more for showers to filter in off the North Sea. 10 days away still a lot of changes to come in reality. Compared to the 0Z where the cold uppers had mixed out, on this we keep -8 or lower going.

 

Edited January 6 by Matt Jones

[nick sussex]

The GFS 06 hrs run is a good illustration in that sometimes smaller is better ! 

A little high centred to the nw n with cold n ne  flow funneling sw can provide what coldies want .

Edited January 6 by nick sussex

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

WOW, that’s crazy cold right there -10/-15c nights at least for the usual cold spots 

Look at all the disturbances due to the polar air over a relatively warm sea! Snow makers!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

GHP re-invigorating….now this is the run of the year……severe cold embedded 

 

BFTP

[Ali1977]

This would be notable, possibly memorable, I won’t say historic - although who knows with that SSW starting to show its head during all this.