Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

Recommended Posts

tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

We are NEVER v, rarely gonna run straight into a crystal - cross modeling situ to island- maritime cold!… however we are most certainly starting to jog… great stuff beginning to roll out now 🤘🤘🤘👌

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BarometerCat Aficionado

BarometerCat

Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
Posted

image.thumb.png.f21a1550963af04eebab77658c617cd3.png

Cold theme ahead, can’t complain. Looking to tomorrows output…can we keep this going?🤔😊

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Deep cold struggling to break through at day 9 it’s less than 12z but at day 7 it was in advance of 12z

image.thumb.png.0495553d34d07a3613de699fb8af568b.png

Pattern seems to be collapsing..left with a wedge of heights it looks like..we just about get away with it..with the southern extent of the jet

Edited by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
10 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Hi Lorenzo - could you put a little meat on the bones of what we're looking at here please? 

I’m not Tony but what he posted were the composite charts put together by the noaa cpc team for day 11 (he posted from the 4th and 6th jan ) 

the dates in the bottom corner are those that match closest to the composite chart. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

It’s disrupting now at T228:

IMG_8368.thumb.png.dc1bf4fbd912af8bf9073a013f274a8e.png

I don’t know if I’m imagining this but does the arrival of the cold air just keep getting pushed back? It’s something that’s happened before and I don’t like it, feels like it’s been at 216/240 area for about 4 days.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

We are about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here aren’t we… 

IMG_5637.png

 No just another slight variation on the theme.  Bitterly cold following with heavy snow for the south.  Hell of a run….again

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 7
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Zero Visibility Contributor

Zero Visibility

Posted
  • Location: Pensby, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter. Anything extreme.
  • Location: Pensby, Wirral
Posted
Just now, frosty ground said:

The Greenland high is being transposed into a wedge and I’m here for the ride, big snow events up for grabs 

Great word that, 'transposed'

Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

You guys up North should be safe!

Hmmm - even when i was in the pennines, i still would rather have the -10 engulf the country locked in by a stable block, and let the south have the battleground, because there's still chances of a battleground later anyway (with deep entrenched surface cold), if the opening gambit of a cold spell is a battleground over Northern England, not only might it mean game over for Southern UK, it can even be very transient for the far North.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
wightwootton Contributor

wightwootton

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Snow!!
  • Location: Isle of Wight
Posted
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Snow maker at day 10..that low skirting through the channel!

Yes, just what I was thinking 👍

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m not Tony but what he posted were the composite charts put together by the noaa cpc team for day 11 (he posted from the 4th and 6th jan ) 

the dates in the bottom corner are those that match closest to the composite chart. 

Cheers Blue 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Trouble is by the time the trigger low comes through to get the cold air in we have no blocking left, making any event fairly transient 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

We are looking at every detail on a 10 chart and it’s hard not to. I’m doing as much as many but we must remember it’s day 10. 
 

T144 and T168 WERE MUCH BETTER.  We should be happy with that. 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
wightwootton Contributor

wightwootton

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Snow!!
  • Location: Isle of Wight
Posted
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Very similar to the 12z to be honest

yes , and will hopefully drag those cold northerly winds down quicker!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

Blimey - another easterly for the south at day 11 ! 😮😁

GFSOPUK18_258_1.thumb.png.de638414a42a62d2b5dda8a61b82b9f9.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Mighty cold that, the precip charts don’t show it but I imagine there would be plenty of snow around and no quick route back to anything mild. Complicated though, and a long way off. Hoping for overnight improvements and a great ECM in the morning!! 

IMG_2476.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted (edited)

Screenshot_20240106_224633_Chrome.thumb.jpg.62cca257dd53bb7a4cf867d5b8156b56.jpg

1 hour ago, icykev said:

Not true, Met Eireann going for cold out to week 3 before confidence begins to wane

 

Screenshot_20240106-204255_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.59e11760092a045b24e8bc8ba4f5c814.jpg

The text forecast on their website was indicating milder weather for this weekend with rain. That's what I was referring to

 

Edited by Bricriu
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Unbelievable cold coming across the Arctic by T264. Any chance it might get here?

Don't think the real arctic cold it would make it with the Greenland high fading, but still a good run overall and remaining cold for a long time.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...