Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Last evenings ensembles show that the 18z GFS op was on the mild side for both London and Oslo in the crucial medium term and therefore being over-progressive.

Will be interesting to see if some of that has reduced this morning ?

The good news is that the GFS is less progressive this morning! The Op is no longer a mild outlier in the medium frame. This bodes well for snow chances further South!

[WinterOf47]

Are we seeing a trend for the low moving South? As people have mentioned many times before, this is common as the event comes into range. Another hundred miles and South of the M4 would get blasted. Starting to look as though a significant proportion of the population will get 6-10 inches next week from one of the lows…just who exactly is the question. Huge disruption on the roads and rail, and lots of fun for kids and snow lovers!

[EML Network]

At least the models all seem to agree that the cold air from the north will reach all areas of the UK before whatever comes from the Atlantic reaches us. 

In my eyes getting the cold air to blanket the uk and dig far enough south so were all in for a chance, is the first tick and although it's far from certain it is looking more and more likelly now. 

And not only this, but there is a slight increase in the confidence of a cold spell lasting a little longer.

Normally with these types of set ups the Midlands northwards do well whilst those of us further south fair less better and I think that's what is the most likely outcome next week in my opinion. 

It feels to me that the way things are shaping up that we may end up with a January CET that is actually close to or even slightly below average and I cannot remember the last time we had one of those.

Still theres a long way to go yet but at least the wheels haven't fallen off...yet

[joggs]

Sort of a middle ground solution looks likely then?. 

ECM picked up on the small high that doesn't let the cold uppers that far south at first.

Snow chances for many after then fI looks like losing cold intensity but thats way out and hope we can go on and shuffle(Tamara's) any slivers of heights to our north with a southerly tracking jet and remain in the cold.

That's the best we can hope for I guess until any northern blocking appears.

Edited January 10 by joggs

[TillyS]

I was about to use the word ‘trend’ and see it has been used above

This may yet produce something fantastic for snow lovers next week but the model trend is in the wrong direction at the moment. We’re starting to see the northerly thrust watered down and upper air temperatures eroding. This is never a good sign, especially when all three models begin wavering.

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Drifter said:

I must’ve got out on the wrong side of bed as I’m surprised by the overall level of positivity for this mornings runs. 

Must be because most of the morning crew are northerners!

Well as you are a northerner to me I’ll explain why I’m happy this morning. We don’t have a low barrelling through from Cornwall to Northumberland.  Gfs had that as a possibility. 
 

from a imby position I would love to see corrections south but I was commenting on the pattern in general.
 

 

[TillyS]

26 minutes ago, That ECM said:

So gfs has stayed where it was and everything else has moved?

 

 

 

 

Yes if the GFS is correct about this then it has been the lead model, although none of them have covered themselves in glory.

I’m usually fond of the ECM but it has been a dog’s breakfast this past fortnight. 

The UKMO throttling back is not a good sign.

 

It might still produce great things for e.g. the Midlands next week but I’m not overly optimistic about the direction of travel at the moment.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Well as you are a northerner to me I’ll explain why I’m happy this morning. We don’t have a low barrelling through from Cornwall to Northumberland.  Gfs had that as a possibility. 
 

from a imby position I would love to see corrections south but I was commenting on the pattern in general.
 

 

Yes, the risk of a low that just barrels the cold away has receded this morning, I think.

There is still a likelihood the cold is shunted north enough for some to get rain.  From an IMBY point of view, I’m happy for the action to be modelled in the midlands, we have 100 miles in the bank for that final southern correction from T72 down to T0!

[MJB]

Control brings more Snow through on 22nd......................JFF of course 

[winterof79]

2 hours ago, stewfox said:

In some of these battle ground scenarios height is always useful.

I'm off now to take up my position for next week. Happy model watching. 

Nice Collyweston roof there.Snow slides off quicker.

[Paul_1978]

Surprisingly negative vibe from some in here. Models look great this morning if it’s snow you’re after, with the snow line obviously yet to be determined, but the broad theme is the same. 

Perhaps a relaxation of cold the week after but even then we can’t be sure - the cold may even hang on - and there’s still February to look forward to yet. 

[Gowon]

10 minutes ago, Drifter said:

I must’ve got out on the wrong side of bed as I’m surprised by the overall level of positivity for this mornings runs. 

Must be because most of the morning crew are northerners!

Even as a southerner there's still a lot to be positive about.. I think anyway.

Meanwhile the future might stay cold; the GEM was fantastic and the KMA adds to that later on as well:

Don't look at the JMA though.

 

[kumquat]

All looks OK to me. Snowy breakdown where a large swathe of the country could see bucketloads of snow and the far reaches of FI on GFS 00z show heights building in Scandi, retrogressing back to Greeny out at the end, continuing the drama we all so love 

Edited January 10 by kumquat
typo

[MJB]

Decent runs this morning, looks like the Northerly will happen. LP's from the SW approaching, classic scenario's from yesteryear, the snow/rain line is now an interesting topic for sure. I think most will see snow , some will see snow to rain and possibly back to snow , I'd say Birmingham to Leeds is all snow , MBY is borderline as to whether it flips to rain for a short while before the cold air digs in again.

 

Pure conjecture at this time, we wont really know how far in these LP's come until probably Monday evening.

Edited January 10 by MJB

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Surprisingly negative vibe from some in here. Models look great this morning if it’s snow you’re after, with the snow line obviously yet to be determined, but the broad theme is the same. 

 

I think it depends where you live.

The Northerly looks a little more toned down and mainly dry then us in Ulster are too far North when the breakdown comes.

[Drifter]

10 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Surprisingly negative vibe from some in here.

Think that’s just me

I’m just not feeling it - seems as though we’ve lost the sturdier UKMO/EC runs and everything heading in a flakier direction as per GFS. 

If I was sat in West Yorkshire I’d be a lot more optimistic. 

Edited January 10 by Drifter

[WINTRY WALES]

So what do we need to look for for those south of the midlands to receive a snow event and not snow to rain??

Colder air digging in further south before the LP arrives from the south west?? Or the LP to take a more southerly route through northern France?? What is the perfect setup so the vast majority here receives snow , stays as snow and what is the likelihood of this at the moment?? Any models showing this??

[Tim Bland]

Wow, feels like we are getting agreement on a snow event late next week! Here’s GFs & ECM …

[Lukesluckybunch]

9 minutes ago, MJB said:

Decent runs this morning, looks like the Northerly will happen. LP's from the SW approaching, classic scenario's from yesteryear, the snow/rain line is now an interesting topic for sure. I think most will see snow , some will see snow to rain and possibly back to snow , I'd say Birmingham to Leeds is all snow , MBY is borderline as to whether it flips to rain for a short while before the cold air digs in again.

 

Pure conjecture at this time, we wont really know how far in these LP's come until probably Monday evening.

Hopefully a shift South..Will we see a covering in Oxfordshire?

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wow, feels like we are getting agreement on a snow event late next week! Here’s GFs & ECM …

I’d take either of those, it’s this type of set up why I bought a house on top of a hill

[nick sussex]

The snowy drama doesn’t really start to day 7 into 8 which given the last week in the modeling is an eternity.

The overall pattern has decent agreement but the nose of high pressure which develops to the south ahead of the Atlantic low remains a concern .

The models seem to overcome that but I’d like to see that within T120 hrs .

 

 

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

So what do we need to look for for those south of the midlands to receive a snow event and not snow to rain??

Colder air digging in further south before the LP arrives from the south west?? Or the LP to take a more southerly route through northern France?? What is the perfect setup so the vast majority here receives snow , stays as snow and what is the likelihood of this at the moment?? Any models showing this??

For those who are trying to get their heads around what models are showing I would suggest that having a look through the gefs and find the ones  that best answers your question.
 

clearly it won’t be spot on but it will aide learning.

[TSNWK]

I guess a first indication on if ecm has room  to trend north or south at day 8 onwards will be ensemble spaghetti plot for london 

Milder than mean then a trend south possible 

Colder it's likely to be further north next runs 

[MJB]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Hopefully a shift South..Will we see a covering in Oxfordshire?

We will get a covering I am sure, unless the models suddenly take the LP further South in to France and we sit in the cold air and wait for the next system.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

We will get a covering I am sure, unless the models suddenly take the LP further South in to France and we sit in the cold air and wait for the next system.

Yea hopefully we get 2 bites at the cherry