Moans, ramps and banter

[johncam]

  @SLEETY can't argue with your thoughts. Nothing out to day 14 suggesting anything other than a few cold blips. Second half of Feb anything cold needs to be exceptional for snow to make it through the day which I can't see happening.

[baddie]

  @reef I wonder how long it would take until April overtakes August in terms of sunshine. Not long until its Marches turn (if the Easterlies get lost)

[CharlieBear9]

Oh, fuel bills again.

[Dark Horse]

  @johncam Yeah for me late Nov to late Jan is optimal time for snow with the sun being very weak. It slowly gains strength from the start of Feb. Crazy how we are already almost there, didn't seem long ago it was xmas.

Edited January 28 by Dark Horse

[Frigid]

I hope we see some cold in Spring to compensate for the lack in winter. Something similar to April 2021, very sunny and cold would be great. Can understand the frustration with it being cloudy 24/7. 

[Methuselah]

  @CharlieBear9

29 minutes ago, CharlieBear9 said:

Oh, fuel bills again.

Why ever not, cold without snow is a waste of money? 

[Summer8906]

  @I remember Atlantic 252 I agree with that. The "oppressive" mild days in winter are always those in a very moist airmass. Down here the days that "felt" the most mild were Mon-Thurs and the last three days - including today - have "felt" colder.

  @AWD I think it is probably the dryness of the air as 12-13C can feel almost oppressively muggy this time of year in a Tm airmass.

This weekend we've perhaps had a rare combination (for winter) of mild with very dry air.

It reminds me rather of winter conditions in Northern Greece when it can feel chilly in 10-12C due to the dry air.

[Summer8906]

  @Frigid Early spring would be the optimal time I think. Late Feb into March, to slow down the flowering, and then a return to average conditions in April and warm in May. In other words a 2016 re-run (but not the absolute horror show that was June 2016, please!)

Edited January 28 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

11 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Early spring would be the optimal time I think. Late Feb into March, to slow down the flowering, and then a return to average conditions in April and warm in May. In other words a 2016 re-run (but not the absolute horror show that was June 2016, please!)

I'm increasingly beginning to wonder when the next below average spell lasting more than a week or so will be. Probably the horror show scenario as far as spring flowering goes would be that we just get nothing.

All of February is mild, then March as well, and continuing right up through the rest of the spring, with a warm April and heatwave conditions in May. It would be ridiculous, but I really wouldn't rule it out.

[raz.org.rain]

  @WYorksWeather my running theory is that November will be the next month that will stand a chance at an overall below average. I'd imagine it would be a very rare event from now on, especially so outside of winter.

[SollyOlly]

  @WYorksWeather Yes, unfortunately I agree. It does feel like a bit of a threshold has been crossed, month after month of above average temperatures. For somebody like me, old enough to remember proper seasons, it is so sad to see...

[WYorksWeather]

2 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

my running theory is that November will be the next month that will stand a chance at an overall below average. I'd imagine it would be a very rare event from now on, especially so outside of winter.

It will depend on the average used, but based on recent norms, the odds of any given month being below average on 1961-1990 are probably about 10%. For 1991-2020, maybe 20%.

[WYorksWeather]

7 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

my running theory is that November will be the next month that will stand a chance at an overall below average. I'd imagine it would be a very rare event from now on, especially so outside of winter.

The problem is the synoptics required to get anything below average. And then the persistence, because when it does go mild now, it's almost always well above average. Just a bit of a south-westerly, and since the 20th the daily CET has averaged around 8C. If we'd averaged 6C in the last third of the month, and the same for the first few days, you could knock a full degree off the CET, and January would have been near-normal to slightly cooler than 1961-1990. It's the mild that seems to keep killing off the possibility.

The bar is probably either a two-week cold spell in a month, like we saw in December 2022 (pretty much the entire first half was cold), or a one-week cold spell, and then a complete absence of anything mild, just average conditions, which in winter would mean a near complete absence of south-westerlies, and in a summer month, no southerlies or south-easterlies.

Hence, the odds are quite long...

[East Lancs Rain]

7 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

Tend to agree it's not been overly mild-feeling here. To be fair a lot seems to be location-dependent - it'd feel very spring-like if the sun was out, but it's been a very autumnal-feeling day here, a bit breezy at times and temperatures knocked back to only about 10C rather than the forecast 12-13C.

Yes it’s been a disappointing weekend. There has been no sunshine at all here and temps have only been in upper single digits. Annoying considering the BBC weather app was forecasting 11°C and sunny intervals today. (See pic below). They normally get it pretty bang on so I was surprised. And lucky Northern Scotland bathes in a balmy 19°C!  It has stayed dry at least which is something I suppose, given how wet the last week has been. I went out on a walk this afternoon and it didn’t feel very mild at all in the wind, despite the air temp being 9°C.

 

6 hours ago, cj114 said:

I probably won't be popular, but the lack of any upcoming cold is good news as far as I can see.

My monthly fuel bill for this month was £240. Ridiculous I know, esp as I have a good normally economical heating system.

Either you don't feel the Cold (which I do, due to m.s) or you are weathy enough to pay these extreme bills.

Rant over. Xx

The problem is though mild in winter usually means lots of  wet and dull weather, not good if you suffer from SAD.

8 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

19°c recorded in northern Scotland, new January record.

It always seems to Scotland that records these exceptionally mild temperatures in winter, whereas in summer it’s nearly always the south east that gets the hottest temperatures. Today was probably warmer up there than most days they had last July!

6 hours ago, markyo said:

Not really as it came off the hottest June ever recorded in the UK. One actual Winter a decade would be good, we aren't even getting that. Honestly can't see what warm weather fans can moan at, Scotland's all-time  record of this month has just gone, below average monthly temps are as extinct as a dodo now. Yet they still complain.

And I bet there would have been coldies complaining on here back in the very mild February 2011 after we had the (almost) coldest December on record… 

 

As someone posted above, it’s not the temperatures that are the problem, it has been the excessive rainfall and lack of sunshine. If it is 20°C during the day and 15°C at night and raining day and night, then even though it works out warmer than average because of the warm nights, it’s still not exactly ideal summer weather is it? The July to December period has been the wettest on record for the UK. People are sick to death of the cloud and rain. Other than the exceptionally hot first week of September, then has been very little in the way of dry, sunny, warmth. Instead it’s been more a mild, wet, dreary, humid kind of warmth. Yes it has been warmer than average, don’t get me wrong, but it’s been the wrong kind of warmth… 

 

We have had quite a few fairly cold winters in the last decade, 2012/13, 2017/18, 2020/21… I know anything above freezing point is shorts weather for you but not everyone has the internal thermostat of a penguin…

5 hours ago, reef said:

Sunny Januarys have been a thing in recent years. Here, the top two are 2022 and 2023 and the other three in the top 5 are 2015, 2012 and 2020. All within the last 10 years.

Top 5 sunniest Januarys:

2022: 104hrs
2023: 103hrs
2015: 91hrs
2012: 89hrs
2020: 85hrs

January 2022 and 2023 was probably sunnier where you are than July 2023 here! (I think a local weather station recorded less than 100 hrs) I am surprised January 2020 was so sunny where you are considering it was a very Atlantic month. I remember it was very dull and wet here.

[East Lancs Rain]

10 hours ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

19.6C in Scotland is extraordinary and 5C higher than I’ve ever seen in Bournemouth in January. Must be a huge foehn effect with strong winds funnelling through the western glens. Temps unremarkable everywhere else really only Altnaharra very very mild. 

The weird thing is now 12 hours later it’s one of the coldest places in the country at 5°C… That is quite a quick drop from 19! Meanwhile in SW England it’s still around 12°C. 

 

Just a quick question, I live near an electricity pylon and whenever it is drizzling outside it makes a buzzing noise.. Only happens with drizzle not any other weather type.  Just curious as to why that is.

[markyo]

5 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

And I bet there would have been coldies complaining on here back in the very mild February 2011 after we had the (almost) coldest December on record… 

Seriously? Your quoting a month from nearly 14 years ago!!! Doesn't that prove how long it has been since a proper winters month?!!!

[RJBingham]

Maybe this is the start of a string of snowless winters, similar to the 2000s. 

[TwisterGirl81]

  @Frigid Lack of winter?  We've just had two weeks of frigidly cold temperatures and two wind storms and a winter of temps around 10c (50f)....That is our usual winter, apart from northern areas of the uk we are hardly siberia.

And I hope not for a cold spring, last years was more than enough thankyou, hopefully we can get some 20c temps in March with any luck

 

[markyo]

9 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Lack of winter?  We've just had two weeks of frigidly cold temperatures and two wind storms and a winter of temps around 10c (50f)....That is our usual winter, apart from northern areas of the uk we are hardly siberia.

Two weeks of slightly colder temps and 2 wind storms to not make a Winter. Just like so so many quote in the Summer months that 2 weeks of higher temps do not make a summer!

[Frigid]

  @TwisterGirl81

December was one of the mildest on record. Pretty sure Christmas Eve was the mildest on record. Only appreciable amount of cold we've had are the first two days of December and 15-19th Jan. Now imagine the equivalent in summer.. terrible. 

[TwisterGirl81]

  @markyo we had -8 here in Exeter one night and many others that were in the minus range that is not slightly below temps for us by any means 

[TwisterGirl81]

  @Frigid January has been very cold, it’s only been milder the past week.

A cold dull spring 2023…then followed  on by a poor summer saved by a stunning six week period from mid May…No way do I want a cold spring  this year, I’d like lots of sun, warmth and overnight thunderstorms 

Edited January 29 by TwisterGirl81

[markyo]

  @TwisterGirl81 Doesn't make a winter though does it? Just like you would say to a short localised burst of heat in summer!

[marky810]

A very wet journey into Leeds this morning and the amount of standing water & large puddles was quite considerable. If it continues all day then I suspect they'll be problems for some. I'm sick of this constant rain. Why does it always seem to be northern England that gets hammered?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

been mentioning this rain for a few days now, as hasn't been much about it, but for some probably here too it could be worse than a so called storm