Moans, ramps and banter

[Cooler on those NE coasts]

Another beautiful sunny day in the NE

[Alderc 2.0]

GFS 06Z now has temps not getting above 14C here until the next Tuesday, what a miserable outlook. 

[Frigid]

 B87 Incredible, December 2015 being warmer than November 1994. Also having a higher avg min than April 2011.. Such an exceptional month for all the wrong reasons. 

[B87]

 Frigid If anything, that shows that May and November seem to be 'underperforming' relative to the months either side.

Almost 20c in April yet only 21c for May, when June is above 25c. I'd have though May would be capable of 22+ and Nov 14-15c.

[danm]

16c currently with lots of long sunny spells. A little breezy but definitely feels much warmer in the sun today. 
 

[Bristawl Si]

Cloudy, 13c, nagging (and still cool) wind.

9 days (and counting) Fuert

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Summer8906 Dunno where you get this from as humidity is only 66%!

 Summer8906 I don't think it's going to happen this year tbh

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 In Absence of True Seasons Still windy here too. Fed up of it. If it isn't rain is blooody wind

 Alderc 2.0 I'm gutted! But expected nothing less ... I'll see if the weather changes with the new season in June I think. All I can do is hold out for June - My favourite month!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 In Absence of True Seasons No snow, no sun - stained glass windowy me

 SunnyG Going anywhere nice on holiday this year? ...

[edinburgh_1992]

Anyone checked the net weather radar? Looks like a whiteout across the whole of western uk. If only
 

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Scorcher This is too small to read

 Cooler on those NE coasts Looks gorgeous! I'm on my way ...

[Scorcher]

 B87 I've always maintained that May and June are the months that could potentially go much higher than their all time monthly records CET wise.

Last June was the warmest on record but there was definitely scope for it to be quite a bit warmer.

May has very strong sun so I think it's a quirk of the British climate that we've never seen a 16C+ May.

Obviously this is SST related but I find it strange that in hundreds of years there has never been a blocked setup with high pressure centred to the east of the UK with persistent southerly/south-easterly winds for long enough to produce a very warm May.

In theory local records could and probably should be a lot higher for May as well. I see no reason we couldn't see widespread temps above 30C across England and Wales in May. It's definitely possible in the right setup- probably a south-easterly flow with minimal sea track and 850 hPa temps between 15C and 20C which is definitely possible in this day and age.

[Sun Chaser]

What the hell is this setup. Temps struggling to get past 10c down here and grey skies with rain all week down here while the east pushes 20c and gets plenty of sunshine.

After what was promised for the first week of May this is so frustrating. I don't want another endlessly cloudy May 2022 type situation where the forecast keeps downgrading over and over to add to the endless cloud of the past 10 months.

[CryoraptorA303]

 Scorcher I've mathematically calculated that a Coningsby in late May could produce >36°C temps if the epicentre is on the hottest stations in the country, i.e. the south east. This suggests that temperatures above the 32.8°C record should be very easy to produce in this day and age and around a 1-in-5 year occurence, assuming a Coningsby copycat in late May is around a 1-in-100 year event.

It's likely an incredible string of luck that we have not seen temperatures above the respective records in May and June. I think we'll honestly end up in a Montreal situation and have an extreme May heatwave before we see one in June, and we have a higher May record than June record for some time. It's possible for both records to fall in a single year, if the heatwave is part of a July-August 2020 style double-prong, with the first phase in late May bringing 34-35°C and then the next phase in early-mid June bringing 36-37°C. Such an event would be very likely to occur during a La Nina year due to the frontending that tends to encourage (outside of triple), but frontended extreme heatwaves have occurred in El Ninos such as 1957 as well.

[CryoraptorA303]

Just now, Sun Chaser said:

After what was promised for the first week of May this is so frustrating. I don't want another endlessly cloudy May 2022 type situation where the forecast keeps downgrading over and over to add to the endless cloud of the past 10 months.

I would actually take a May 2022 at this point, as at least it was drier than average. To me, getting a drier than average month at the moment is more important than chasing the Sun (cough), considering that we've had far too much rain and we need to get rid of it on the ground.

At least May 2022 did have that warm spell in the middle and reached 27°C and had a number of days above 20°C, this would be a huge improvement on last May temps-wise. Last May really did feel more like a warm April than a sunny May in the SE.

Overall the outlook is quite optimistic, I think May so far has a good chance of turning it around. Aside from the warm weekend mid-month, today has been the sunniest day here probably since January.

[Summer8906]

Here, oddly, the weather has improved as the day has worn on.

Currently mostly sunny, at the time of day which ought to see peak cloud as the moisture off the sea is joined by land-based convection. And yet it was overcast between 7-8am, when it ought to be clearer. Most odd.

That said I think we are lucky, we're on the eastern edge of a clearer area. Masses of cloud visible not too far to the west.

Edited April 29 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 Sun Chaser Mind you, isn't it just today and tomorrow when the west is worst? Isn't the second low pushing in from the east, thus making the west drier and brighter than the east later in the week?

Not sure but that's my interpretation of the models.

Edited April 29 by Summer8906

[B87]

 Scorcher June 2023 was only the 2nd warmest here, behind 1976.

I've noticed that January has the lowest positive anomaly of any month, only being about 2.2c warmer than average. February 2024 was 3.2c warmer than average here, yet December 2015 was almost 5c warmer. 

August should also have a record on par with July, rather than being almost a degree cooler.

[Summer8906]

8 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

At least May 2022 did have that warm spell in the middle and reached 27°C and had a number of days above 20°C, this would be a huge improvement on last May temps-wise

Here I'd take May 2023 over May 2022 anyday!

May 22 was mostly cloudy, humid southwesterlies with temps varying little day to night (extremely warm nights, slightly mild - but not warm - days) though we did get lucky with many of the weekends.

May 23 featured 18 sunny days out of 19 from the 13th onwards.

Edited April 29 by Summer8906

[A Face like Thunder]

 CryoraptorA303 do we not need to take account of influences such as the cold North Sea in April and May? Last week, I spent a miserable few days on the N Yorkshire coast and this week it seems that the highest temperatures may be reserved for W and N W Scotland. Correct me if I'm wrong, but surely Coningsby in May would have  a very different feel to it weather-wise in May compared with July.

[Summer8906]

 *Stormforce~beka* It definitely did feel humid earlier in the day, less so no.

Perhaps because the RH and DP are higher today than they've been for some time, so consequently it has felt much more humid than I'm used to.

Plus, last time we had SW-lies, the absolute temps were lower (being closer to winter).

Edited April 29 by Summer8906

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 May 2022 was exceptionally dull here, failing to even reach 150 hours. If we had a repeat of that month, then we would be at risk of recording a duller year than 2021 (Heathrows dullest year).

Why have warm, dryish and dull when you can have warm, dry and sunny? That would help with sunshine and drying out the ground.

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, B87 said:

The warmest months by mean...

April to August nice but September to March pretty gross, a sequence of mostly grotty, damp southwesterly months.

Interesting that the dull, damp and unsettled March 2017 was warmer than much nicer and much sunnier Marches such as 1990, 2007, and particularly 2012.

Again it shows the effect of warm nights.

 

Edited April 29 by Summer8906

[Sun Chaser]

7 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

At least May 2022 did have that warm spell in the middle and reached 27°C and had a number of days above 20°C,

I think this is what I mean with the setup, when there's a trough to our west delivering warm weather to the SE while we are stuck under cloud and drizzle and low teens like mid May 2022 and like this week.

I just want sun!! I don't care how cold it is. Give me a May 3c below average and I won't care as long as I see 230+ hours of sunshine!!

 

 Summer8906 I don't know about that, weather app has London as mostly sunny and 18-20c at the weekend while it's raining here and 15.

Any sign of drier, sunnier weather keeps getting pushed back to day 8.

[raz.org.rain]

"Possible heatwave by the end of next week, but let's remain cautious"