Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Pauski]

3 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Will be surprised if this low pressure system is anywhere near  the uk by the time we get to that timeframe....☺

I don't want to see central Europe warming up in,  it has to be Russia/Northern Russia where the warmest air is and expanding there to scandinavia(Finland) in summer.

I wan't to see some good thunderstorms in summer and the heat from central Europe is not necessarily good for that because  a thunderstorm is approaching from the Baltics, but when it comes to Estonia or the Gulf of Finland, things dry up, or go to Russia and Southern Finland gets nothing. Thunderstorms must develop in Russia and spread from there, If they don't develop closer.

[danm]

Some glimmers of hope on the GFS this morning for the start of May:

The Azores high ridging in to the south, with a more traditional pattern being set up with low pressure anchored to the NW. 

 

However, the ECM looks a fair bit different:

[Rain All Night]

19 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, out to Sun 28 Apr (day 7)

Again going to refrain from any commentary on these runs...

0z/6z ensemble means, out to Mon 6 May (day 15)

It's clear that low pressure will be in control from Wednesday until the end of April.

These ensemble means suggest that some perturbations may be showing pressure rises (surface or upper) over the UK from the beginning of May.

0z deterministic runs, out to Mon 29 Apr (day 7)

The problem we will have heading into this coming weekend is that we will have to be prepared for rain to fall at pretty much any time, anywhere, even if not necessarily for sustained periods...

0z ensemble means, out to Tue 7 May (day 15)

Some slight hope of an improvement towards the end of the first week of May, maybe?!

[Cambrian]

Not very often we see a low pressure system romp so triumphantly west from Scandinavia through the UK and Ireland to the Atlantic, as here on the 12z UKMO but there are some very intricate handovers of pockets of low heights that drive the whole process and give it some considerable elegance. 

The first pocket drops south to join the Scandinavian low at day 2, deepening it. The second drops out of the trough at the tip of Greenland at day 3, joining the melee at day 4 and drawing the system west over the UK and Ireland for the weekend. Thanks A third pocket drops southeast via the same route at day 6, pulling the system west out over the Atlantic. 

Looks like an “atmospheric” weekend awaits to round off this very mixed April, ripe for savoury evening treats washed down with a sumptuous glass or three of your favourite ale or wine. The late spring fitness effort can wait until some suitable conditions are laid on. 

And from there, let’s grab all the potential silver linings. Though not seemingly immediately on offer, there are at least some emerging signs that this remarkable retrogression, as a part of wider adjustments occurring within the generally very static hemispheric pattern, might eventually lead to sufficiently consistent heights building over the near continent to bring us a better chance of some warmer interludes as May progresses. 

[snefnug]

 Cambrian is that techspeak for ‘more rain dear, get that logburner lit’?  

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Cambrian what we need is the zonal winds in our favour as well as a positive AO/NAO.   Getting a bit of fatigue with our curtent pattern.     

[WYorksWeather]

Evening all. Great deal of uncertainty at the moment about the way forward, but thought it might be worth throwing the 12z ECM meteogram in.

After a continuation of the current pattern for the next few days we get the wind into more of a southerly quadrant by day 5 or so, which looks to lift temperatures above average. Unfortunately this is accompanied by a fair bit of rain, and in particular next weekend looks like another horror show to add to the list so far this year - very wet and temperatures near average held back by the rain.

Beyond that into early May possibly somewhat less wet and warmer, but plenty of options on the table. There are a few warm outliers getting the temperature quite widely into the low 20s, but equally plenty of near to slightly below average scenarios.

The key difficulty in the current scenario seems to be getting that combination of warm and dry. Most of the warmer options tend to be somewhat south-westerly and therefore it's unlikely we'll avoid rain for very long. And the options that do have more high pressure influence seem to position the high out to our west as we've seen recently, which is unlikely to produce anything notably warm.

[Bats32]

Judah Cohen seems to think this pattern will continue into May. SSWs  late on in winter ruin Spring .... https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1782473673397461151?t=9IgWvA73rtFq1HhZtX4HGA&s=19

Edited April 22 by Bats32

[Daniel*]

Horror show pattern into early May on tonight’s GFS 18z…. takes one back to 2007-2012. The N Atlantic/Greenland blocking is difficult to shake off in spring with polar vortex out the picture. 

[Sherry]

 Daniel* just as well the general theme is for average to slightly above overall across most models

[MisfitDog3]

 Bats32 This Spring reminds me of what Spring was in the 70's and 80's. There was an expectation that cooler weather and frost risks could continue right into May. Personally, I love it but there are obviously other views out there. The pattern looks to be somewhat stuck. It makes it interesting in terms of seeing where it goes from here and the models appear to be struggling with that.  

[Rain All Night]

23 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, out to Mon 29 Apr (day 7)

The problem we will have heading into this coming weekend is that we will have to be prepared for rain to fall at pretty much any time, anywhere, even if not necessarily for sustained periods...

0z ensemble means, out to Tue 7 May (day 15)

Some slight hope of an improvement towards the end of the first week of May, maybe?!

0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 30 Apr (day 7)

0z ensemble means, out to Wed 8 May (day 15)

It is as yet far from clear that the ridging activity that is evident from the Azores high in the first week of May is going to reach the shores of Britain... it currently seems that more ensemble members are going for it pushing up unhelpfully to our west instead...

We have now entered the four month period of the year with the best solar input... my frustration levels rapidly increase if we don't see favourable synoptic patterns during this precious time!

Edited April 23 by Rain All Night

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Rain All Night I think @Tamaraneeds to shed some light here for what is going on at this stage, we need to know coherently on the goings on and that.    

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 MisfitDog3 Cooler spring weather is fine and pleasant if its also accompanied by plenty of sunshine and plenty of dry, crisp weather. April 2021 was a great example of this. This Spring is certainly not that! I don't think I've seen any frosts in my area this entire Spring, and as for sunshine, we're on another below-average month (no surprises there), with above average rainfall also (again, no surprises). It's just more of the same dull, drizzly fare we've had for months now, but with a bit more daylight hour.

Reality is though, approaching the half-way point of the year and getting days with with colder max / high temps than nearly the entirety of Winter just gone, is genuinely laughable. 

 

[Methuselah]

 Addicks Fan 1981 I wouldn't be at all surprised if Tams got sick of having her missives unfairly dissected, if not ridiculed; not by you, of course, but by those who should know better. 

[MP-R]

 In Absence of True Seasons Indeed. April 2010 and 2017 also had a lot of cool but dry and often bright conditions that were better than the cool/dull/wet alternative.

Looking through recent runs, it doesn't seem to matter which direction the weather is coming from, 'trough' is the word for this country. Very stubborn cyclonic conditions in these parts with varying degrees of cool or warmer. Not unheard of at this time of year but very disappointing and definitely not helping the yearning for something more seasonal.

I'm taking a trip to southern Spain in the first full week of May so expect models to pick up on high pressure moving into the UK during that time... 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Methuselah I think she will come online at an appropriate time.     

[raz.org.rain]

 Addicks Fan 1981 to be fair, teleconnections analysts were given a lot of hell back in winter. I wouldn't be surprised if they're not interested in coming back.

[Sherry]

So currently looks like warm sun between rain from weekend or that’s my take on it 

[raz.org.rain]

 Sherry the start of May looks rather dire but I'm hoping it'll get upgraded to something more Mediterranean influenced

 

[Sherry]

 raz.org.rain well gfs has been consistently showing 15/16 for London next week which I see as being average tbh nothing particular cold 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Sherry I'll take it 

Edited April 23 by *Stormforce~beka*

[049balt]

 Methuselah Tamara is a great miss on this thread. I loved her indebth analysis.  

[danm]

 

[dryfie]

As ever, your most reliable mid-term  guidance lies at Stark’s Park.